Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 11:20 AM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 622 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers early this evening, then chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Rain likely. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of rain, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 622 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure develops along a frontal boundary tonight and moves towards the region on Wednesday. The low will move south of long island Wednesday evening and becomes nearly stationary Wednesday night into Thursday morning before starting to move away from the region late Thursday. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 142011 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 411 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure develops along a frontal boundary tonight and moves towards the region on Wednesday. The low will move south of long Island Wednesday evening and becomes nearly stationary Wednesday night into Thursday morning before starting to move away from the region late Thursday. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Light shower activity has developed west of the region, however the showers are moving into drier air as they enter the region. The column is expected to moisten up this evening and overnight as an upper level shortwave approaches and surface low pressure develops south of the region. This low will slowly move towards the region overnight. Will not mention any thunderstorms in the forecast with the environment becoming more stable. The best chances for showers overnight will remain across NYC and points west. Further east, the drier air will prevent any likely POPs.
Overnight lows fall into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As low pressure continues to approaches from the south on Wednesday, and eventually moves south of Long Island Wednesday evening. The low will become nearly stationary or meander south of the area into early Thursday morning, before finally moving away from the region Thursday afternoon.

This is a change from the 00z guidance. The 00z NAM forecast had showed the area mainly dry with low pressure passing further south.
The new 12z NAN has the low further north, resulting in a rather wet period Wednesday into early Thursday. Forecast will now reflect this trend, with likely POPs overspreading the area on Wednesday and remains likely into early Thursday, before slowly tapering off Thursday as the low slowly starts to move further away from the region.

As the low approaches on Wednesday, expect most of the shower activity to becomes more of a stratiform rain and continue into Thursday. The rain appears to be mainly light but over a 24-36 hour period, rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch.

With cloud cover and rain expected expect less of a diurnal temperature range with a more maritime airmass developing. Highs Wednesday and Thursday mostly in the 60s while lows each night are mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The 12Z ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain late Friday night into Saturday night before lowering on Sunday. On the front and back ends of the forecast, Friday and Monday, expect high pressure. Thus, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.

Highs during the period will be closer to normal Friday and Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain. This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest this evening.

VFR through this evening. There is a slight chance of sprinkles or showers but confidence on timing and occurrence is low.
There is also a low chance of thunder. Chances for showers increases slightly into the NYC metro terminals later this evening and tonight. Lower cigs move into the terminals (western terminals initially) tonight and into early Wednesday morning.
Widely scattered light showers will be possible through tonight.
Cigs continue to lower such that IFR condition will be possible by Wednesday morning, but confidence in timing is low.

Southerly flow around 10kt evening. Any gusts that do occur will be occasional. Winds gradually become SE overnight into Wednesday morning. SE-E winds around 10 kt on Wednesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible as cigs lower tonight and Wednesday. Low confidence in timing of IFR cigs tomorrow.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

21Z Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely with SHRA. NE-E winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90



MARINE
Conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Wednesday. For Wednesday night and Thursday, SCA conditions become likely on the ocean waters as well as NY Harbor and the South Shore Bays. For the ocean, expect winds and seas to build to SCA levels. For the Harbor and south Shore bays, expecting gusts to at least reach 2 5 kt for part of this period. Lesser confidence of reaching SCA levels on the remainder of the other waters, so no headlines expected there at this time.

A weakening easterly flow Thursday night into Friday will result in diminishing winds and seas. There is the potential for marginal SCA gusts near 25kt on the ocean Thursday night. SCA seas on the ocean are likely to linger into Saturday and possibly longer depending on the track of low pressure over the weekend. The non-ocean waters are forecast to remain below SCA through the period.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems are expected through the beginning of next week.

Rainfall in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame will generally remain fairly light with amounts on average between 0.25 and 0.75 inches.
Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ338-345-350-353-355.

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Stony Brook
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Tue -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:48 AM EDT     5.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:27 PM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:45 PM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
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Tue -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:22 PM EDT     6.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:36 PM EDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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