Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, PA

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Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:08 PM EDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1228 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
This afternoon..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early, then showers likely late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly this evening. Areas of fog mainly after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1228 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front will remain to the south through Thursday morning, then lift into the waters as a warm front Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of approaching low pressure and a trailing cold front. The cold front will move through Thursday night and pass east on Friday, with high pressure returning for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland , PA
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location: 40.91, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190751
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
351 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A slow moving front will remain across the area today and tonight.

Low pressure will move along the front across the ohio valley
tonight and then up into new england Thursday. A cold front will
cross the area Thursday night. High pressure will build in Friday
and remain across the region this weekend. More low pressure and its
associated fronts will move into the area for the start of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A difficult forecast for today with regard to convective flash
flooding potential. The front that has been stalled near our area
all week is still meandering nearby, though it is starting to wash
out and lose definition. Initially, some early morning low stratus
should gradually dissipate through mid-morning. Expecting a mainly
dry but still mainly cloudy period for most of the morning and into
the early afternoon. We'll then see shower and storm chances go up
into the afternoon and evening. Even with cloud cover limiting
instability, the area of low level convergence along the weakening
front should again be sufficient to fire off convection with daytime
heating. Wind fields today are very weak, and mid-level buoyancy is
poor, so thinking it is going to be a struggle for anything that
develops to attain much depth, vertically. For this reason, thinking
the severe threat today is very low, and expect that there won't
even be too much in the way of lightning with most of the activity
that does develop. So while comfortable with a low severe risk, the
bigger questions today lie on the hydro side of things. Pwats remain
near 2 inches today, so air mass moisture is certainly not in doubt.

In addition, the aforementioned weak wind fields, while detrimental
to the severe threat, will enhance the hydro threat, as cell motions
will likely be slower than observed over the past few days. In this
sort of air mass, even low topped convection with little or no
lightning poses a heavy rain threat especially where training and
slow moving cells are concerned. In addition, portions of the region
experienced heavy rain on Tuesday. With this in mind, have issued
another flash flood watch for about the northwestern two thirds of
the cwa, aiming for the best overlap between areas receiving the
most rainfall Tuesday and where the highest threat is expected
today, in the zone of best frontal convergence. It is possible that
the flash flood threat could turn out fairly limited, but in some
places it will not take much rain to cause problems and given wide
spreads in the hi-res guidance feel a watch is justified. Speaking
of, the hi-res guidance was not especially useful for this forecast
package, as while there is a general signal for the highest threat
to be in the northern and western portions of the area, there is
wide variance in intensity and coverage. This is very common in weak
forcing environments, so expecting continued wide variability and
generally poor performance from most of the hi-res today. Highs
today should be near to a little below average due to cloud cover,
but with dew points continuing to run high there will still be a
distinctly humid feel to the air.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Convection should be ongoing as we head into this evening and
tonight, and in fact convective coverage will probably continue to
increase for a time this evening. Eventually, overnight
stabilization should reduce coverage and intensity of convection.

Expecting much of the same with overnight convection as that during
the day, with the severe weather threat low but a continued risk for
locally heavy rain. Not surprisingly, another warm and stuffy night
is expected with dew points remaining in the upper 60s to near 70
and low temperatures doing the same. Finally, there will again be a
risk for low stratus and fog tonight, and believe this may be a
little more widespread tonight versus last night.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday Thursday night... The last active day in the recent string
of active weather. The wavy front will still be across the area early
with high pwat airmass in place. Low pressure will move along the
front, up the ohio valley and then into new england at night. This
will set the stage for more showers and tstms. The SPC has placed
much of pa in a slight risk for severe weather for thu. The
improved wind fields will likely yield some organization with
damaging winds possible with the tstms. Once again, heavy rains
expected with the tstms, but the coverage will likely be quite
a bit less that the past few days.

Friday weekend... High pressure will build into the area Friday and
then remain over the area this weekend. The period is expected to be
dry with a much more comfortable airmass in place. Temperatures will
be a few degrees below normal Fri Sat and then back to normal by
Sunday. Dew points will be mostly in the 50s Fri sat, but the creep
back into the 60s for Sunday. There will probably be more clouds
later Sunday as the next system will begin to arrive well west of
our area later in the day.

Monday tue... We didn't make many changes to these periods overnight,
since what was in there already looked fine. A warmer and more humid
airmass returns with more showers tstms expected. We have chc slgt
chc pops in these periods attm. Some of the guidance is pointing
to some MAX temperatures close to 90 in the delaware valley. This
looks similar to last week, and the numbers actually came in below
what guidance had.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Any areas of low stratus and associated ifr CIGS should
dissipate towards 12z this morning. Otherwise, should be a mix of
MVFR andVFR for most of the day. Showers and tstms expected again
this afternoon and evening especially from phl north and west.

Severe tstms are not expected and left thunder out of the tafs but
shower coverage could be fairly widespread with heavy downpours
possible in the showers with associated cig vsby restrictions. Light
southeasterly winds north of phl with light south-southwesterly
winds near and south of phl which will eventually turn light
southeasterly towards early evening.

Tonight... Showers lingering at least through the early overnight
with mostly MVFR conditions outside of showers and localized ifr
within them. Later tonight, expect another opportunity for ifr
conditions as fog and low stratus redevelop. Ifr and potentially
patchy lifr may be more widespread tonight.

Outlook...

thu Thu night... MVFR ifr at times with showers tstms. Tstms may
be locally severe.

Fri thru Sunday...VFR exected. Gusty W NW winds Friday.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions expected today and tonight. Winds mostly out of
the south at around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and an isolated
tstm possible during the late afternoon and through the overnight.

Outlook...

thu Thu night... Sub-sca, but tstms with higher winds and seas
at times.

Fri Fri night... Low end SCA possible with NW winds gusting near
25 kts.

Sat sun... Sub-sca. Fair weather.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
expected to continue through today with waves in the surf zone 3
feet or less.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
paz054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
njz001-007>010-012>019.

De... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... O'brien
short term... O'brien
long term... O'hara
aviation... O'brien o'hara
marine... O'brien o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 53 mi74 min 69°F 67°F1011.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 56 mi68 min ESE 2.9 G 6
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi68 min SSE 7 G 8 66°F 1011.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ20 mi74 minSSE 3 mi70°F66°F87%1010.7 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA22 mi75 minSE 62.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist64°F64°F100%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr33CalmNE54CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm344S3Calm
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmN7
2 days agoSW63S5S44S63S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm33CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
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Wed -- 04:59 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:40 AM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:52 PM EDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.64.22.71.30.3-0.20.41.73.24.55.35.54.93.92.81.70.90.51.12.44.15.46.36.6

Tide / Current Tables for Washington Canal, New Jersey
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Washington Canal
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Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:34 AM EDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:49 PM EDT     6.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.54.12.71.40.3-0.10.51.83.34.55.35.34.73.72.71.80.90.612.33.95.46.36.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.