Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:11PM Monday March 18, 2019 11:47 AM EDT (15:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 4:51AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1019 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw early this afternoon, then becoming S late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1019 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the region through mid week. A warm front passes to the north late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Another cold front moves through the area on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland , PA
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location: 40.91, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181317
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
917 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass to the south of the forecast area today.

High pressure will return Tuesday into early Wednesday then a series
of two cold fronts will approach and cross the region from the
north, the first on Thursday and the second on Friday. High pressure
will build again from the west late Friday through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
915 am update: we continue to see some weak returns on radar
over southern portions of the forecast area however low level dry
air is continuing to win out as we aren't seeing precip being
reported at any stations. For this reason, reduced pops in this
area to slight chance through early this afternoon and also
reduced sky cover in line with latest satellite trends.

630 am update: dewpoints have been a bit tricky this morning
with areas seeing enhanced northeasterly flow (generally i-95
and se) being a bit drier than forecast while the reverse is
true west of this line where winds have been more light and
variable. Otherwise going forecast in good shape as virga and
mid-clouds stream into the area ahead of weak shortwave centered
over ohio.

Previous discussion:
an elongated and increasingly-sheared shortwave will pivot
sewrd towards the area today as it rotates around the southern
edge of a longwave trough centered over the canadian arctic.

Mid-lvl cloud cover in association with this feature is already
increasing from sw- NE across the forecast area this morning.

The surface reflection associated with this shortwave (as
depicted by guidance) will be rather unimpressive and will also
be centered well south of the area, with the northern edge of
the inverted trough axis just making it into delmarva. Guidance
depicts weak high pressure moving just offshore of the area by
early this afternoon with dry westerly flow on the north side of
this high largely squashing precipitation chances for most of
the area. Only DELMARVA and far southern nj advect in moisture
on the south side of the high east side of the inverted trough
axis, and even this moisture is not very impressive with
forecast pwats of around 0.3-0.4 inches (while pwats will be
around 0.2 inches for the remainder of the area). There is some
low- lvl convergence focused over DELMARVA associated with the
low-lvl trough which will likely be the primary forcing
mechanism for any precipitation that does form.

Thermal profiles would favor snow or a rain-snow mix in delmarva
early this morning, with diurnal warming likely transitioning any
precipitation to all rain by mid to late morning. Given weak forcing
and limited moisture generally think precipitation will be on the
lighter side and am only forecasting a few hundredths of qpf, with
the highest totals in eastern md south of cecil county into kent and
sussex counties in de. Consequently am not expecting much in terms
of snow accumulations, with maybe a few places getting a dusting to
a couple tenths if precipitation can form this morning, otherwise
expect most of the area receiving precipitation will see no
accumulations.

Convective-allowing guidance is showing some signal for marginal
instability this afternoon associated with localized moisture
convergence along the southern fringe of the forecast area (e.G.

Talbot, caroline, and sussex counties). Although don't expect
anything significant to come of this given SBCAPE values <150 j kg,
the rainfall from any more-convective cells would likely be more
significant than any of the disorganized morning precipitation (and
higher than QPF currently in the forecast).

Outside of central southern DELMARVA and southern nj most of the
area will stay dry, somewhat cloudy (although some breaks will be
possible), and cool (maxes about 5 degrees below climo) today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The first shortwave will have cleared the area by this evening,
however a second northern stream shortwave will clip the area from
the northwest tonight. Given the aforementioned lack of moisture not
expecting any precipitation with this system. That being said some
low-mid lvl clouds may advect in as this wave pivots through so will
have to watch these for their potential impact on overnight mins
tomorrow night. Generally expect any cloud cover to be clearing out
by Tuesday am as dry NW flow pushes in.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Summary: there is one round of showers possible during the extended
forecast period Wednesday night into Thursday, otherwise quiet and
pleasant late winter early spring weather is expected to last
through next weekend.

Extended period starts Tuesday with a shortwave trough well offshore
of our area. Zonal flow will be in place through Wednesday with high
pressure dominating at the surface. During this time, near normal
temperatures and mostly clear skies are expected, although Tuesday
will be a few degrees below normal. It will be quite pleasant with a
warming trend through mid-week.

Another medium wave trough will dig southward across the region
Thursday through Friday. During this time, two main shortwave
troughs appear to cross the area, with each sending a cold front
across the northeast us and mid-atlantic. The Thursday cold
front shortwave combo will likely yield some showery activity across
the forecast area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, perhaps
lasting through early Thursday evening. Went ahead and bumped up
pops to chance range during this period. QPF looks quite light,
about 0.10" to 0.20", as there will not be much moisture in place
ahead of this system. The cold front will pass through then drier
and slightly cooler air will filter in from the north. A secondary
cold front will cross the area again late Friday which will bring
drier and somewhat colder air, but temps will still be generally
near or perhaps a few degrees below normal.

High pressure will return into Saturday and persist through the
weekend. As the high slides offshore, mean flow will shift southerly
and bring above average temperatures to the region for the weekend.

This combined with mostly clear skies should yield another very nice
weekend for much of the east coast.

Aviation 13z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe,
krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions expected today with generally mid-lvl (5-8k
ft.) CIGS prevailing (with some breaks in the afternoon). Some
shower activity will be possible at ilg, miv, and acy but expect any
showers to be weak with conditions remainingVFR. Winds will be
light northeasterly this morning at most TAF sites, with winds
shifting to more westerly at all terminals outside of acy (which
will retain the easterly flow) by this afternoon.

Tonight... VFR conditions prevailing with some mid-lvl cigs
possible. Winds generally from the western half of the compass.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR expected. NW winds Tuesday becoming
sw Wednesday 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Rain showers possible. GenerallyVFR
with MVFR conditions possible, especially in and around showers. S
to SW winds 5-10 kts becoming W or NW Thursday afternoon and early
evening. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night...VFR conditions expected. W to NW winds around 5-10
kts. High confidence.

Friday... Nw winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, especially
during the afternoon and evening. High confidence.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions expected today into tonight. Easterly winds today
will veer around to the west tonight. Seas generally 1-2 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday... Sub-sca conditions expected. Rain showers
possible Thursday.

Friday... SCA conditions likely developing, especially by Friday
evening with winds gusting 30-35 kts. Gales possible Friday night.

Saturday... SCA gale conditions will diminish through the day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Carr fitzsimmons
short term... Staarmann
long term... Staarmann
aviation... Carr staarmann
marine... Carr staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 56 mi30 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 46°F1027.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi30 min WNW 4.1 G 6 37°F 1027 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ20 mi54 minVar 4 mi36°F14°F40%1026.7 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA22 mi55 minNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F15°F52%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
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Mon -- 12:51 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     6.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:36 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.20.52.13.95.46.46.65.94.73.21.70.4-0.4-0.50.52.23.95.36.165.13.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Washington Canal, New Jersey
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Washington Canal
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Mon -- 12:51 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.30.41.83.55.16.16.564.83.21.70.4-0.6-0.60.41.93.65.1665.13.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.