Wednesday, June20, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:37PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 8:43 PM EDT (00:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:12PMMoonset 12:16AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 711 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain early this evening, then rain late this evening and overnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 711 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary tracks just south of the region tonight. This low exits to the east Thursday morning with weak high pressure building over the region. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland , PA
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location: 40.91, -75.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201955
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
355 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

A developing low pressure system and its associated fronts will
traverse the region tonight. Canadian high pressure moves into the
northeast late Thursday into Friday while a stalled front
remains just to the south. Low pressure moving from the eastern
great lakes into northern new england will lift a warm through
the region on Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Sunday. A sprawling area of canadian high pressure builds into
the area through the first half of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Looks to be an active night with the sfc front just to the west and
a few weak vort maxs expected to move through. Weak low pressure
will also cross the area. We expect increasing amts of showers this
evening with tstms also expected. Locally heavy rains are also
possible. Hopefully, the activity will move thru fast enough to
preclude any significant flooding. Localized poor drainage flooding
is possible however. It will remain warm and humid overnight. Lows
will drop into the low mid 60s N W and hold in the upper 60s low 70s
s e.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Most of the showers associated with the system from Wednesday night
will have moved S E of the area by Thursday morning. A few showers
may remain across ERN de and SE nj however. These showers will
continue east and be offshore by noon. Clouds will decrease from
nw SE as drier air filters into the area. Temperatures will reach
the low mid 80s in most areas Thursday. Dew points will be somewhat
less than Wednesday. Winds will be north to northeast around 10

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Thursday night through Sunday...

there will be a brief reprieve between systems Thursday night
into Friday before the next system affects the area over the
weekend. To start the period Thursday night, a quasi-stationary
front will be situated just south of the area while a high
pressure system moves from ontario and quebec into new england.

This will set up a cooler E NE flow over the area. Mainly clear
to partly cloudy skies Thursday evening will give way to
increasing clouds overnight as mid and upper level moisture
begins streaming in ahead of the next system. In addition, there
are some indications that a marine low stratus deck may form and
effect portions of central and southern nj into the delmarva.

The area should remain precip free for Thursday night however
with lows mainly in the 60s, except 50s over the southern

Tricky forecast for Friday. Moisture associated with the next
approaching low over the ohio valley will continue to push
eastward toward the region in the SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, at
the surface, the stationary front remains stalled just to our
south with cool E NE winds over the area to its north. This will
be associated with the westward extent of the ridge over new
england. Despite the moisture advecting in aloft, there will be
a dry layer in the lower levels associated with the ridge and
this will tend to limit precip over the area. That said, still
think there may be some scattered to isolated showers over the
area under the mainly cloudy skies so we do have chance to
slight chance pops in for most areas by Friday afternoon. We
also trended the forecast cooler as there will be an inversion
above the cooler NE flow. Generally expect highs in the low to
mid 70s but it could even be a bit cooler than this.

Friday night, low pressure supported by an upper trough
advances northward toward lower michigan slowly pushing a warm
front toward the southern DELMARVA by early Saturday. Expect
an area of showers to move through associated with the
isentropic lift and shortwave energy in the SW flow ahead of the
upper trough. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but this
should be mainly confined to southern areas across the delmarva
closer to the front. Heading into Saturday, the warm front will
continue to slowly make its way northward through the area but
may not make it farther north than the i-78 i-80 corridor by
late day. The initial round of showers Friday night may last
into Saturday morning before there should be a lull as much of
the area breaks into the warm sector... So not looking like a
continuous all day rain. Depending on how much sunshine breaks
out temps south of the front should at least reach the low to
mid 80s, if not a bit higher, with dew points climbing into the
upper 60s to low 70s so it will be quite muggy once again! By
the latter part of the afternoon into the evening attention will
then turn to the thunderstorm threat ahead of a pre-frontal
trough. At this point still looking at good deep layer forcing
with ml capes potentially reaching 1000-1500+ j kg and deep
layer shear reaching 30-50 knots. For these reasons still see
the potential for severe weather given this set up... Especially
near and south of the i-95 corridor in the warm sector.

Indications are for a round of late day showers and
thunderstorms to affect this area before moving out Saturday
night as the trough moves through.

By Sunday morning, area should be in another lull however the
actual cold front and associated upper level trough will still
be upstream. For this reason expect that a mainly dry start to
the day with a mix of Sun clouds will give way to increasing
chances for showers and storms arriving from the west by late
afternoon as the front and the main shortwave energy aloft
approaches. Still another very warm, muggy day with temps and
humidity levels similar to Saturday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...

showers and storms with the cold front discussed above will
sweep through the area with the front Sunday night into early
Monday followed by clearing skies by late Monday along with
falling dew points and temperatures near seasonal. Beyond this
time, a sprawling area of high pressure looks to build in from
the north bringing mainly clear skies with seasonable
temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through mid week.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of afternoon early evening... Scattered showers moving east from
south central pa will affect the delaware valley tafs for awhile,
but significant vsby or cig restrictions are not expected. Winds
mostly S to SW around 10 knots.

Tonight... More showers and scattered tstms will arrive overnight
affecting most TAF sites in the 04z 05z thru 09z 10z time frame.

Cigs and vsbys will likely drop to MVFR, but upper end ifr is
possible too. Winds will generally shift from srly direction to nrly
towards dawn.

Thursday... Improvement from NW SE through the morning with most
showers done by 12 13z. Winds will be N to NE at 5 to 10 knots.


Thursday night... MVFR ceilings possible at acy and miv, with
northeast wind gusts up to 20 mph. Elsewhere,VFR. Medium

Friday... PredominantlyVFR. Cannot rule out brief MVFR ceilings in
shra. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph, especially acy and phl.

Medium confidence.

Friday night... Low clouds and fog will lead MVFR, with ifr possible,
especially late. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph. Low confidence.

Saturday... Conditions gradually improving to MVFR, withVFR possible
by afternoon, especially i-95 corridor terminals. But shra and tsra
will lead to brief ceiling visibility restrictions. Southwest winds.

Medium confidence.

Saturday night... A return to low clouds and fog with MVFR, and even
ifr possible. Winds shifting to the northwest. Low confidence.

Sunday... Low clouds and fog will dissipate with a return to
mainlyVFR until a late day risk of storms could bring brief
restrictions. Winds west- southwest. Medium confidence.

Sunday night... Showers, storms possible along with associated

Monday... Becoming mainlyVFR.

Overall, conditions will remain below SCA criteria tonight. Winds
tonight will be mostly SE to S around 10 to 15 knots this evening
and 5 to 10 knots overnight. Scattered showers and tstms tonight.

Locally higher winds and seas near tstms.

Thursday, showers will end during the morning and then fair weather
will arrive for the afternoon. Winds will be north to northeast at
around 10 knots.

Rip currents... Low expected.


winds and seas may reach SCA levels late Thursday night as low
pressure develops offshore. The pressure gradient between high
pressure to the north and an approaching warm front to the south
likely leads to continued SCA winds seas Friday and Friday
night. As the warm front moves across the waters, a brisk
southwest flow promotes SCA level seas through at least
Saturday. A return to more tranquil, sub-sca boating conditions
is expected Sunday into early next week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons o'hara
marine... Fitzsimmons o'hara

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 53 mi44 min 77°F 71°F1008.1 hPa (-0.7)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 56 mi44 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 79°F1008.6 hPa (+0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi44 min SSE 12 G 13 70°F 1008.6 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ20 mi50 minN 0 mi75°F63°F66%1008.4 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA22 mi51 minNW 310.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1010 hPa

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN43Calm3Calm33CalmSW7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS3CalmS333CalmCalmCalmNW3NW46N9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35SW66SW9

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
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Wed -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Wed -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:04 AM EDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:47 PM EDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.