Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jim Thorpe, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:24PM Sunday March 26, 2017 4:38 PM EDT (20:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:14AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 349 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain this evening...then rain likely with areas of drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog late this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less late this evening and overnight.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Rain likely. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning... Then 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon...then becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 349 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach tonight and move north into the region Monday. Weak low pressure and a warm front affects the region Tuesday...followed by a cold front Tuesday night. High pressure builds in Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure system approaches Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jim Thorpe , PA
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location: 40.91, -75.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261804
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
204 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure is our primary weather influence today.

Low pressure from the mississippi valley into the great lakes
on Monday will draw a warm front northward through most of our
region. The low will move into southern new england Tuesday
night pulling the frontal system off the coast. Canadian high
pressure will edge into our area Wednesday and Thursday.

Thereafter, low pressure in the ohio valley on Friday should
exit seaward from the mid altantic coast next Saturday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
930 am update: no changes to the forecast this morning. Onshore
flow to the north of a backdoor cold front is inundating the
region this morning with low clouds and occasional drizzle.

Mount pocono remains below freezing, so a light glaze may occur
on trees, but no societal impacts have been observed or reported to
this point. Conditions will change little through the day, with
temperatures unable to rise in the low clouds and maritime
origins of the low-level flow. Expect little to no measurable
precipitation through the daytime hours as the midlevels should
remain relatively dry.

Previous discussion...

high pressure across quebec/maine will move offshore today while
weak low pressure slowly moves to near chicago by evening. A
steady onshore flow will continue across our area thru the day.

This will promote an abundance of low clouds and fog along with
some light rain and drizzle at times. Pops will be greatest
across the northern areas where we have hi chc pops and the pops
taper off s/e to slgt chc across SRN de. Unlike Saturday,
temperatures will be below normal, with highs only in the 40s in
most areas, and a few low 50s over delmarva.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
The overall pattern will not change much tonight with high
pressure north/east and weak low pressure moving closer across
the great lakes. The onshore flow will continue and the chances
for more measurable rains will increase tonight. The best
chances will again be across the southern poconos, lehigh valley
and north nj where we will have categorical pops. The pops
decrease back to likely over the del valley and cntrl nj and the
chc pops over south nj and SRN de. Patchy fog and drizzle will
occur between the bouts of rain. Overall QPF will not be that
great, a few hundredths across the south and up to 1/4 inch up
north.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
500 mb: a southern stream weakening short short wave crosses our
area Monday followed by a strengthening northern stream short wave
Tuesday, that closes off, east of new england Wednesday. The next
southern stream short wave probably passes to our south at the
end of the week. Westerly flow should follow for the weekend before
a trough tries to form in the mississippi valley early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Tuesday 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, near 5 above normal Wednesday, nearly normal Thursday
through Saturday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/26 gfs/nam MOS Monday-Tuesday,
then 00z/26 mexmos Tuesday night and thereafter wpc guidance
Wednesday-Saturday.

The dailies...

Monday... Despite winds turning south or southeast, the question
becomes how much warming can occur with a lack of mixing and
considerable cloud cover. Showers possible with the short wave
passage and waa, especially early in the day. Dense fog may
form along the warm front and along the water where the
dewpoints exceed the ssts in the 40s.

Tuesday... Dense fog potential early in the day. Now that we've had
almost a day of southerly flow, it may be easier to warm to the
guidance values. There should be a batch of showers and isolated
tstms associated with a developing negative tilt northern
stream short wave that will shove all the moisture out to sea at
night with a wind shift to westerly. (ec and to an extent the
ggem are 6-12 hrs slower but have sided with the previous fcst
for continuity as well as the 00z/26 GEFS which emphasizes low
pressure tracking ewd from northern pa to near pou by 23z/27.

Wednesday... Partly sunny and nice. Northwest wind gusty 20 to
30 mph.

Thursday... Fair. Northwest gusty 15 mph.

Friday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of precipitation, mostly rain
if it occurs. Lots of uncertainty on track of the event with a
wide ranging set of model solutions , inclusive of a little wet
snow potential near and N of i80. Low confidence and have
followed wpc guidance. GEFS confluence of the NRN and SRN stream
is across northern pa.

Saturday... Clearing after any pcpn ends in the morning. Below
average confidence on pcpn occurrence.

Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

For the 18z tafs... General MVFR conditions will continue through
early this evening, likely deteriorating to ifr or possibly lifr
during the overnight hours. Moderate confidence that light rain
will move in between 03z and 06z at krdg/kabe and by 09z at
kttn/kpne/kphl/kilg. There may be slow improvement to MVFR after
sunrise, but scattered showers may continue through the morning
hours. Less confidence of precip at kacy/kmiv. Winds generally
east 10-15 kts through early evening with a trend toward S or
ssw late tonight through the morning hours tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday thru Monday night... Periods of MVFR/ifr in low clouds
and fog, with showers especially to start the day.VFR CIGS may
still develop Monday afternoon from around i-95 and points
southeast. South to southwest wind. Confidence: average
Tuesday... Ifr/lifr st/fog possible in the morning but would probably
becomeVFR CIGS in the afternoon, with a period of MVFR/ifr
conds possible in shower. During the afternoon-evening, there
is 800j MLCAPE modeled, some instability and a neg tilt short
wave so a TSTM is possible. Confidence: average
Wednesday...VFR. Northwest gusty 25 kt. Confidence: average
Thursday...VFR. Northwest gusty 15 kt. Confidence: average

Marine
We will keep the SCA flags as they are on the waters and just
raise the next segment with the 330 am issuance, instead of
waiting until 6 a.M. The onshore flow will continue today and a
gradual building of seas will continue. Scattered showers and
patchy fog expected.

Outlook...

Monday thru Wednesday... Seas may remain elevated Monday into
Tuesday, and the SCA may need to extended into this period.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to winds and seas on
Wednesday, which may be near SCA thresholds. Confidence: average
Thursday... Sub-sca. Confidence: above average

Tides/coastal flooding
Onshore flow is expected through Monday morning, with easterly
wind gusts up to 25 mph at times today. Astronomical tides are
also increasing, coincident with the new moon this Monday, march
27. The estofs remains most aggressive of the guidance suite,
with near minor flooding for the sunrise Monday high tide along
the de and nj oceanfront, and it has has outperformed the other
guidance recently. Both the sit multi model review and GFS etss
are more conservative. Estofs trends for positive departures
(surge) appear to be lessening. The wind will also be trending
more parallel (southerly) to the shore by sunrise Monday, so any
minor tidal inundation flood risk remains a low confidence forecast
with no action at this time.

Climate
March as a whole for phl, is still on track to average one half
to 1 degree below normal, despite the warmth of ydy through
Wednesday.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz450>453.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Cms/o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag
aviation... Cms/drag/o'hara
marine... Drag/o'hara
tides/coastal flooding... Drag
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 72 mi63 min 43°F 44°F1028.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 73 mi51 min E 5.1 G 8.9 43°F 43°F1029 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA22 mi48 minE 1210.00 miOvercast43°F35°F74%1028.1 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA23 mi46 minESE 114.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from ABE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13E13E13NE6NE15NE13
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NE9NE14NE8NE11NE10NE11E9E8E10NE10E12E11E12E10E9E12
1 day agoSW8S8S6S10SW3CalmS4W5NW3NW3CalmN3CalmCalmN3SW3CalmCalmN5E3SW6SW6CalmE11
2 days agoW8W8NW6CalmSW3CalmN3CalmN3NW3CalmCalmSW6S6CalmS8S9SW11S8SW9SW6SW12S14S10

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, New Jersey
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Trenton
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Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT     8.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:27 PM EDT     8.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.97.58.586.85.33.92.51.20.20.42.85.77.68.88.87.76.34.93.52.10.90.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tacony-Palmyra Bridge, New Jersey
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Tacony-Palmyra Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:20 AM EDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:40 PM EDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.66.66.45.34.231.80.80.10.62.54.25.66.76.964.93.72.51.50.50.31.63.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.