Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chillicothe, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:22PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 9:40 PM CDT (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chillicothe, IL
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location: 40.91, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 300205
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
905 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Update
Issued at 858 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017
going forecast is generally in pretty good shape through the rest
of the night. The storm system centered over the central plains
is only making slow progress northeast toward the forecast area.

Showers and a few thunderstorms in the warm advection regime to
the east of the circulation will continue to increase in coverage
and spread into the area tonight. However, despite the fact that
watch boxes and severe storms are not too far to our southwest,
organized severe weather is not expected locally. The current
severe weather is located within a much more unstable airmass,
with better shear profiles, and this support is not expected to
reach our area tonight. Some thunderstorms will likely move into
or develop over the area, but most should occur much later and in
a weakening state. Made tweaks to the hourly grids for the latest
trends, but significant changes were not necessary.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 300 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1002mb low over southeast kansas,
with warm front extending eastward into the tennessee river valley.

As the low tracks northeastward into the kansas city area by 00z, a
strengthening low-level jet ahead of the system will trigger
widespread showers and thunderstorms across central/eastern missouri
into iowa. This precipitation will then gradually shift e/ne into
the illinois river valley by mid to late evening... Then further east
across the remainder of the area overnight. With central illinois
remaining north of the warm front, surface-based instability will be
negligible: however, forecast soundings show modest elevated
instability developing with GFS mucape values reaching 200-400j/kg
late. As a result, have carried likely to categorical pops across
the board after midnight... And have mentioned a chance of thunder.

Some model differences still exist concerning the exact track of the
low, with the 12z NAM remaining slightly further south than the gfs.

The GFS has been the most consistent model from run to run, so have
leaned toward its solution in the short-term. As such, am expecting
the low to track across central illinois Thursday afternoon, then
into the southern great lakes Thursday night. Warm advection
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing early in the
morning, with a lull in the precip likely from mid-morning into the
early afternoon hours. As the warm front lifts northward, the
atmosphere will become moderately unstable during the afternoon,
with mucapes climbing into the 1000-1500j/kg range everywhere east
of the illinois river. SPC continues to highlight this area for a
slight risk of severe, with greater severe probabilities focused
further south from southern illinois southward to mississippi where
instability will be greater and low-level shear will be stronger.

For central illinois, it appears the severe weather risk will
primarily occur along/south of i-72 between noon and 6pm. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats from the storms.

Have gone with occasional showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s north of the
low track from peoria northward... To the lower 70s well into the
warm sector south of the i-70 corridor.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 300 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017
moisture channel imagery shows closed off low in central ks today.

Series of waves seen in models and in satellite rotating around low,
as it wobbles to the east across mo to il through Thursday. Result
will be showers and storms tonight through day Thursday. Will need
to watch possible severe development Thursday, as mentioned above.

Next system approaches area late Saturday night, with models in
agreement on wave and pcpn timing. Best instability south of area,
and so have added slight chc tstms for southern 1/2 CWA in aftn/eve.

System is slow to track south of area, so chance aftn/eve tstms
again on Monday.

Final system approaches area for Wednesday. This system is
stronger and so will need to be watched, as it also progged to
move directly over central il. There are some prog differences
though in the track, to also watch for.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 700 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017
vfr conditions to start the period will gradually degrade to ifr
tonight as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across
the area. There should be a lull in the precipitation threat for
the late morning and early afternoon hours Thursday, but chances
will increase again later Thursday as a storm system tracks
through the area. An improvement to MVFR orVFR is likely later
Thursday through diurnal heating and/or the passage of the warm
front associated with the system.

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Update... Bak
short term... Barnes
long term... Goetsch
aviation... Bak


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshall County Airport, IL10 mi46 minNE 710.00 miRain46°F43°F92%1015.2 hPa
Peoria - General Downing-Peoria International Airport, IL19 mi47 minENE 1310.00 miOvercast50°F46°F86%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from C75 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE6E8E8E5E7E7E8E12E9E9
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1 day agoNE3N4N5NE5NE3NE4CalmNE5N3CalmNE4NE3NE7E7N4N3N5N5NE4N5NE5NE6E3Calm
2 days agoSW6SW5W6W5CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmCalmSE4E3CalmCalmCalmE3N4N7N6N3N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.