Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 5:17 AM   Moonset 7:56 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS63 KILX 072311 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 611 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong thunderstorms have redevelop east of I-55 this afternoon, with some possibly becoming severe with hail and tornadoes possible.

- Wednesday afternoon severe event continues to show the highest probability for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes focusing along and south of the I-70 corridor. However, the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes is also possible between I-70 and I-72/Danville, with the probability is lower.

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Convection will be ongoing across eastern parts of the CWA by 4 pm. Some of the storms could be severe and the tornado watch has already been issued for areas east of I-55, including Mclean Co.
Additional counties will likely be cleared before the main issuance of the forecast....by 4 pm. The boundary associated with these storms will quickly move east late this afternoon and by 7 pm most of the area will likely be out of any convection threat.
Our far southeast counties will continue for a couple of hours in the early evening, then dry weather is expected through the night and early tomorrow morning. Another round of strong to severe convection is expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening as mid level troughing and southwest flow continues. Our CWA will remain on the northern edges of the threat area but large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will also be possible south of I-70.
A smaller threat for severe weather also expected to the north of I-70 and south of I-72/Danville. After the precip tonight, lighter winds and clear skies will lead to some fog development. Patchy fog is possible across eastern IL, with areas of fog along and south of I-70.

Temps will remain on the warmer side tonight and tomorrow but become slightly cooler tomorrow night.

Auten

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

As the low pressure pulls away, an inverted trough will rotate through northern IL with showers across northern parts of the CWA
The mid level trough will also move through Thur night, but showers will have waned at that point. The CWA will remain in northwest type flow the remainder of the long term period...Friday through Tuesday. A few weak disturbances will move through the area during this period with only small chances of precip expected. Temps through the period will start off cooler with highs in the 60s Thur through Sunday. Warmer temps in the 70s will return for Mon and Tue.

Auten

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The chance for showers and storms for the rest of this evening continues to diminish, but the best chance for a stray storm will be near PIA over the next couple hours. Otherwise expect diminishing winds and VFR conditions the rest of the evening and overnight. Winds will set up out of the S/SSE Wednesday morning with some gusts to around 20 kt developing during the afternoon.
Another round of showers and storms is expected across portions of central and southern Illinois Wednesday afternoon with the best chance for storms on station at SPI/DEC.

Deubelbeiss

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Illinois, IL,