Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chillicothe, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:35PM Saturday June 23, 2018 6:44 PM CDT (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:22PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chillicothe, IL
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location: 40.91, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 232302
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
602 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018
low overcast from earlier this morning lifted into a robust CU sc
field this afternoon: however, due to an overall lack of forcing
and paltry sbcapes of less than 200j kg... Only isolated showers
have developed during peak heating. Will continue to carry slight
chance pops for showers through sunset, then will go with a dry
forecast for the remainder of tonight into Sunday. Low temperatures
tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Highs on Sunday
will be more typical for this time of year in the middle 80s.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018
a vigorous short-wave trough noted on 19z 2pm water vapor imagery
over the northern rockies will drop southeastward into the plains
on Sunday... Then will meander slowly E NE across the midwest
Monday Tuesday. As the wave approaches from the west, it will help
push a warm front northward into the area on Monday. 12z jun 23 gfs
continues to develop convection in the vicinity of the boundary
and push it into the area Sunday night: however, its latest run is
less aggressive than previous runs and confines the precip to
only the S SW kilx CWA after midnight. The ECMWF focuses the
precip even further S SW and keeps central illinois completely dry
Sunday night. Meanwhile, the NAM develops a large convective
complex north of the front and spreads it across nearly the entire
cwa Sunday night. The NAM appears to be the odd model out at the
moment, so its solution has been rejected in favor of a GFS ecmwf
blend which yields chance pops along southwest of a rushville to
robinson line late Sunday night. As the warm front lifts slowly
northward, warmer and more humid conditions will overspread the
area on Monday as surface dewpoints climb back into the lower 70s.

Given increasing boundary layer moisture and the presence of a
forcing mechanism, have included pops everywhere on Monday... With
the best rain chances across the illinois river valley in closer
proximity to the approaching upper support.

As the upper low tracks further E NE from south dakota nebraska
Monday evening to the upper peninsula of michigan by Wednesday
morning, it will pull a weak cold front through central illinois.

Timing of FROPA appears most likely late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Have therefore carried high chance to likely pops
Monday night through Tuesday night... Followed by just low chance
lingering across the E SE CWA into Wednesday morning. After a very
warm and humid day on Wednesday, there is some evidence that an
mcs may develop across the plains Wednesday evening... Then
potentially spill into portions of central illinois Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. The latest GFS shows this
feature... As did the previous run of the ecmwf. Latest ECMWF along
with the gem are now both dry. Given uncertainty this far out,
have only included low chance pops during that time
frame... Pending support from future model runs.

After that, all models suggest a building ridge across the
midwest ohio river valley for the end of the week. The GFS is now
trending stronger with the ridge, much like the ECMWF gem have
been showing all along. Since model consensus appears to be
building, confidence is growing that the end of the forecast
period will be hot and dry... With highs reaching the lower to
middle 90s both Friday and Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 600 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018
the bulk of the MVFR CIGS have shifted off to our east with mainly
a scattered layer around 2500-3500 ft and another layer of mid
level clouds at 7000 ft agl. Forecast soundings over most of our
area indicate the mid level clouds will gradually move out of the
area later tonight, after 03z. However, if the sky does clear off,
some fog may develop over the area especailly after the rainfall
we have seen. The combination of a clear sky and light winds may
bring about more fog than what we are currently forecasting so we
will need to watch for the potential later tonight. Otherwise, any
fog or low clouds that may reform during the early morning hours
of Sunday will give way to mainly scattered cumulus clouds on by
late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Light and variable
winds are expected tonight and Sunday.

Ilx watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Barnes
long term... Barnes
aviation... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshall County Airport, IL10 mi50 minS 310.00 miOvercast68°F66°F95%1008.5 hPa
Peoria - General Downing-Peoria International Airport, IL19 mi51 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from C75 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW3CalmCalmNW3SW4N3NW3SW4S5SW3CalmSW4CalmS6Calm
1 day agoNE4NE3NE7E6NE6NE9NE5NE5N3NE4CalmE7NE5CalmE6NE6NE6N6N5N6N5NE4N5N3
2 days agoCalmNW8
G14
E3CalmE6E6CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE6E3CalmNE3E5E7NE3N3S4
G15
S3E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.