Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:58PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:17 AM EST (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 11:29PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 336 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the evening. Patchy drizzle in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 336 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front slowly approaches the waters today, shifting north of the waters tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front quickly follows for Tuesday evening. High pressure builds during the mid and late week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220901
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
401 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front stalls across the area today, before shifting
northward tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front quickly
follows for Tuesday evening. High pressure builds during the
mid and late week period. The high moves east next weekend ahead
of a cold front that likely passes sometime Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak isentropic lift ahead of the approaching warm front has
led to the development of some light showers and patchy drizzle
across the area this morning. Model forecasts indicate the
potential for minimal drier air above the surface to advect
eastward in westerly flow later this morning into the early
afternoon, which may help at least decrease the coverage of
showers, though patchy drizzle will remain possible at times.

Temperatures will largely by the most difficult portion of the
forecast today. In general, above normal temperatures will
continue in subtle warm advection, though daytime highs are
expected to be cooler than over the weekend. Highs will depend
on the northward progression of the warm front, which typically
ends up stalling across long island. Cold air damming to the
north of the front, primarily across the lower hudson valley and
connecticut in combination with the overcast skies and light
drizzle will likely keep temperatures a few degrees below
guidance. Farther south across northeastern nj, the nyc metro
and long island, there is some potential for temperatures to be
higher than guidance forecast if the warm front progresses
northward faster. Trends will be closely monitored.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Well above normal temperatures are expected for tonight as
overcast skies and warm advection prevail. A non-diurnal trend
will occur as the warm front begins to shift northward through
the area. Similar to the uncertainties of Monday, low
temperatures will largely depend on the speed in which the warm
front passes to the north, while highs will be around 10-15
degrees above climatological normals as the front moves
through.

After the passage of the front, low-level mass response to the
potent upper short wave will allow for quick moisture advection,
with southwest flow just above the surface ranging from 50-70
kt. Deep layer moisture represented by precipitable water
values around 1-1.20 inches will be potentially close to a
climatological maximum for this time of year, setting the stage
for periods of moderate to locally rainfall. With strong warm
advection in the low- levels and cooling temperatures aloft with
the approaching upper short wave, there will be a period of at
least marginal elevated instability, which will support
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Should temperatures
rise enough at the surface to lead to a weakened inversion,
there is potential for the stronger winds above the surface to
mix down in any thunderstorms. Regardless, a tight pressure
gradient will lead to strong winds across the area through the
day.

With deep-layer flow strongly veered initially, expect heavy
showers to be scattered in nature. As the front approaches, low-
level flow will veer, creating a more unidirectional deep-
layer profile oriented along the boundary that may support the
development of a line of showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter,
precipitation will rapidly decrease from west to east following
the frontal passage.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The main question among available guidance is speed of downstream
trough as is passes across the country. The GFS not surprisingly
remains on the faster side of the guidance. ECMWF is trending
quicker, while ensemble guidance suggests a slightly slower
progression east.

This obviously impacts surface features and associated cold front as
well.

Overall, dry weather prevails Tuesday night through early Saturday,
and quite possibly through Saturday night. Any lingering rain with
the cold front Tuesday evening quickly ends. Upper shortwave passes
across the northeast, and is followed by another weak upper level
shortwave Wednesday night, with little fanfare with this second
shortwave.

Then ridge builds ahead of aforementioned trough next weekend.

Dry forecast until Saturday night Sunday. Capped pops at high chance
Sunday due to timing uncertainty.

Temperatures return to near normal as CAA ensues behind the cold
front. It may take some time for the colder air to settle in, which
likely happens behind sfc trough associated with second shortwave,
so readings may eclipse seasonal norms Wednesday before falling back
closer to seasonal norms Wednesday night through Friday.

Then temps rebound to above climo in return flow ahead of trough,
cold front next weekend.

Due to this warmup, plain rain is expected with the next system.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
A warm front will likely remain fairly stationary across the
nyc metro and LI terminals today, moving slowly through the
region tonight. Exact timing and placement are uncertain, but it
appears the front will likely stall south of kteb, klga and
northern terminals through this evening.

MVFR conditions develop early this morning with drizzle, light
rain, and fog. Conditions likely lower to ifr for the terminals
mentioned north of the front during or just after the morning
push, and likely continue through the evening push. Meanwhile
the terminals south of the front (kjfk, kewr, kisp) likely
remain MVFR and possibly briefly improve toVFR in the aft eve.

Winds will be light SE for terminals to the south of the warm
front, and light NE to the north.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi85 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 37°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi48 min E 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 36°F1021.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi48 min 40°F 36°F1021.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi48 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 35°F1020.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi38 min E 7 G 8 37°F 1027.1 hPa35°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi48 min N 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 37°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi25 minSE 68.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F86%1021.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi22 minSE 36.00 miFog/Mist42°F41°F96%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN8N6NW6N7CalmN5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE6
1 day agoSW8SW10SW15
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SW13SW8W10W10W8SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoW4CalmCalmW4W8W9W8W10W9W8W8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW9SW12SW9SW6

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:06 AM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:54 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:14 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.92.32.52.31.91.410.70.40.30.51.11.82.32.52.421.50.90.60.30.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:40 AM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     1.29 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:03 PM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:20 PM EST     1.29 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.3-1-1.3-1.3-1-0.5-0.10.41.11.310.6-0.1-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.40.10.81.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.