Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:50AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1044 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Occasional gust up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers late this morning, then slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1044 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical cyclone jose well southeast of Montauk point will move slowly to the northeast through tonight and meanders offshore on Thursday. High pressure builds to the north and west on Thursday, remaining in place through early next week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to the southeast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201621
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1221 pm edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Tropical cyclone jose well southeast of the twin forks of long
island will slowly move northeast through tonight and will
remain well offshore through Thursday. High pressure builds
over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next
week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast.

Please refer to national hurricane center products for more
details on jose.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Jose was located about 200 mikes southeast of the twin forks of
long island late this morning and will continue moving slowly
to the northeast away from the coast through this afternoon.

Rain bands continue to spiral across portions of southeastern
connecticut and eastern long island and will keep chance
probabilities through this afternoon across the eastern zones.

Please refer to national hurricane center products for more
details on jose.

Increasing subsidence on the backside of jose and from building
upper ridging should prevent the rain from progressing westward.

North to northeast winds will continue with occasional gusts 30
to 35 mph across the twin forks.

The main concern today will be from high surf and dangerous rip
currents at ocean beaches. Minor coastal flooding is also
possible.

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across eastern
long island and southeast connecticut through the day. Further
west, at least partial clearing is anticipated, especially this
afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Jose will meander south and east of CAPE cod tonight into
Thursday. Winds will weaken during this time, but still remain
gusty across long island and southeast connecticut. This is
where the tightest pressure gradient will be located between
high pressure to the north and west and jose offshore.

Otherwise, skies will continue to gradually clear overnight and
should largely be mostly sunny on Thursday.

Deep upper ridging builds to the north and west as jose meanders
offshore. Drier low level air should work in on Thursday as well
with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Temperatures however will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s in
ne nj and nyc metro with upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.

Dangerous rip currents will likely continue at atlantic ocean
beaches on Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Lots of uncertainty in the long term continues. Most of this is
due to the uncertainty surrounding jose's ultimate track and
strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts
regarding jose from the national hurricane center.

For now it appears that jose and or remnants will meander about
250- 300 miles to the southeast of montauk Thursday through
this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield
just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the
area will then likely keep us dry through the period with above-
normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on
the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday
and Tuesday, will continue to keep both periods dry for
consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details
of jose from run to run.

Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end
of this week and may continue into early next week.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
Tropical cyclone jose will remain off southern new england
coast today.

Bands of showers pivoting to the east may occasionally move into
kgon, however, conditions will more likely remain dry.

Intensity is mainly light although vsby could briefly drop to
MVFR. Otherwise... Ceilings are mainlyVFR in the city terminals,
although there may be occasional MVFR ceilings at times. Pockets
of MVFR ceilings for khpn and kteb, but expectVFR by 18z.

Ceilings improve to MVFR-VFR this afternoon into the evening
hours for eastern terminals.

Gusty N flow will gradually shift to the nnw. Gusts will
continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer
to 25-35 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease
through the evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi115 min NNE 21 G 25 73°F 3 ft72°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi37 min N 2.9 G 17 75°F 73°F1010.2 hPa
44069 31 mi55 min N 19 G 27 74°F 72°F68°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi35 min 69°F 67°F10 ft1006.6 hPa (+0.3)69°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi37 min 71°F 68°F1007.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi43 min N 15 G 24 76°F 72°F1010.1 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi37 min NNE 5.1 G 14 73°F 68°F1008.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi32 minN 19 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy74°F64°F74%1009.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi89 minN 16 G 2610.00 miOvercast77°F68°F74%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN16
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1 day agoNE9NE7NE7NE8NE10NE9NE10NE9NE8NE8NE13
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2 days agoNE5--SE6SE6E7SE63Calm3E5E3NE4NE3NE4NE3NE5NE5E4NE5E5NE4NE6E7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:18 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:38 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.22.82.21.50.80.200.51.32.12.83.33.332.41.810.3-0.10.20.81.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 04:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:16 PM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.30.81.61.71.50.9-0.1-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.60.41.41.71.61.20.3-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.