Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

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Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:25 PM EDT (01:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 12:18AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 651 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of light rain or drizzle.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 651 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A high pressure ridge will extend southwest from new england through Tuesday. A cold front will then move across on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200000
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
800 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
A high pressure ridge will extend southwest from new england
through Monday night, and weaken on Tuesday. Low pressure moving
northeast across the upper great lakes into ontario and quebec
will send a warm front toward the area Tuesday night, followed
by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. High pressure will then
settle over the area for late this week, and start to weaken
Saturday night into Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Made adjustments based on latest radar trend, showing a few
showers mainly across ct and long island an moving slowly ne.

Otherwise, with low level moisture and weak lift, expect chance
of light rain or drizzle tonight, especially for eastern and
coastal areas. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s in most
areas.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The position and strength of high pressure doesn't change much
during this period. Enough lower level moisture remains for partly
to mostly cloudy conditions, but since mid-levels will be drier
there's a better chance for more spots across the tri-state area to
see breaks of sunshine. Low chances for rainfall once again.

This will be mainly during the day and across the coastal
areas. Any rain will will light or in the form of drizzle due to
the dry mid-levels and weak lift. Highs in the 70s and lows in
the 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches on Monday.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
With the sfc ridge axis to the north and an approaching mid level
trough, there should be enough low level moisture to make Tue a
mostly cloudy day, with isolated scattered showers. Shower coverage
should increase going into Tue night as the warm front approaches,
with a few heavier showers and tstms possible late Tue night. This
should be quickly followed by cold frontal passage on Wed at least
for nyc metro and points west, but the front could progress slowly
enough to allow for instability to build over eastern ct long island
and spark another round of showers tstms mainly in the late morning
and early afternoon.

At any rate, expect conditions to dry out Wed night, with a stretch
of seasonably warm and comfortably humid days coming up for thu-sat,
with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s, and possibly even dipping into
the 40s in spots on thu.

The high begins to weaken going into Sat night Sunday, and some
showers may be possible during that time frame.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
A weak frontal boundary will remain stationary across the mid
atlantic states into Monday, while high pressure noses in from
the north.

Vfr CIGS are expected to continue through late tonight as drier
air works in from the ne. Conditions then likely fall back down
to MVFR late tonight and for Mon morning push. Timing of MVFR
cigs is 04z for eastern terminals, and 09z for the city
terminals. Timing may be off an hour or two, so amendments are
likely for that possibility. Low chance of ifr CIGS mainly for
eastern terminals such as kgon and kisp, where a tempo group has
been included between 09-12z for these cigs.

Vcsh continues with light showers moving through the region.

Expecting dry condition after 05z, with a generally dry forecast
thereafter.

Generally a e-ne flow into Monday at 8 to 12 kt.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Thursday
Tue Vfr.

Tue night-wed Shower TSTM likely with MVFR conditions.

Thu-fri Vfr.

Marine
Sca remains in effect for the ocean waters through Monday afternoon.

There's a chance that advisory conditions may not be met Monday
morning, but with winds veering E at around 15 kt in the
afternoon, thinking is that if seas fall below 5 ft in the
morning, they could rise back to 5 ft by afternoon.

Additionally, gusts will be close to 25 kt in the afternoon.

Therefore, did not want to shorten the sca, but extended it
through the afternoon instead. It might even need to be extended
into the evening, but didn't have enough confidence to extend
it into another forecast period.

Ocean seas will likely build to SCA levels late Tue night into wed
as SW flow increases to around 20 kt. These elevated seas may linger
out east into Wed night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through tue.

Showers tstms, some with heavy rain, may be possible Tue night into
wed morning with a passing frontal system. With pw increasing to
well over 2 inches, and deep layer SW flow indicative of potential
training of cells, there is at least potential for urban and poor
drainage flooding issues overnight from nyc north west, which may
linger into the Wed am rush. Flash flood potential is not out of the
question with low FFG values especially over NE nj, but does not
look widespread.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Jc goodman
short term... Jc
long term... Goodman
aviation... Jp
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi56 min NE 18 G 19 72°F 75°F2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi38 min ESE 5.1 G 8 70°F 79°F1018.4 hPa
44069 31 mi56 min ENE 9.7 G 16 70°F 78°F67°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi36 min 70°F 72°F6 ft1017.5 hPa (+1.2)63°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi38 min 68°F 72°F1018.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi44 min E 8 G 11 71°F 76°F1017.9 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi91 min NE 9.9 G 14 69°F 1016.6 hPa58°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi38 min N 5.1 G 6 68°F 71°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi33 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F57°F68%1018.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi90 minN 010.00 miLight Rain69°F66°F90%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6N3N6N9NE13
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1 day agoS9
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SW7W6SW5--CalmS3S3SW5W6W6W4SW6SW5SW6SW10SW8SW8SW7SW9CalmNW16
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2 days agoSW4SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW754SW7S7S9SW7S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:40 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.50.50.81.31.72.12.32.32.11.91.61.10.60.60.91.522.52.932.92.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:24 AM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EDT     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:53 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7110.70.1-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.3-1-0.7-0.10.71.21.31.20.70-0.6-1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.