Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 10:16 AM EDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 3:52AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 703 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Isolated tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 703 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south today and passes across the area tonight. The low moves into new england Thursday. Low pressure tracks through the area on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for the beginning of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251328
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
928 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the south today as passes across
the area tonight. The low moves into new england Thursday. Low
pressure tracks through the area on Friday, followed by a cold
frontal passage over the weekend. High pressure then builds in
for the beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Overall model agreement is noted with regard to main upper level
and sfc features. Weak shortwave approaching from the south
just ahead of northern stream shortwave that tracks across the
great lakes region.

Sfc low approaches from the south, moving right up the eastern
seaboard. Gusty easterly winds this morning are anticipated,
then winds should diminish as the low approaches and the
pressure gradient weakens. Rain this morning could be heavy at
times per global models and high resolution simulated
reflectivity, with a focus just east of nyc. In general, qpf
amounts have trended down somewhat, but still expect around an
inch, with a range of 1 2 inch to up to 2 inches in spots. Once
again, cannot rule out some thunder, mainly mid morning into
the afternoon due to weak elevated instability.

Temps will struggle to rise much, with late day highs expected
once the steadier rain begins to taper somewhat. Blended met,
mav and ecs data.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Sfc low moves in the general area of nyc tonight as northern
stream possibly phases with weakening shortwave, although degree
of phasing remains in question.

Regardless, winds lighten, and fog will develop due to the
recent rain, light winds and minimal t TD spread.

A few showers are possible as the low and sfc trough passes.

Any fog lifts late tonight as westerly wind flow behind
departing low to the north stirs up the boundary layer, and
drier air moves in. Lows range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
per MOS blend.

On Thursday, sunshine returns, mixed with a few clouds and any
rain showers remain to the north, closer to upper shortwave, sfc
low. Westerly flow will allow for deeper mixing, and temps
rising well into the 60s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
The ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement with low pres tracking
thru the area fri. The sys is the remnants of the upr low currently
over neb. The modeling indicates a weak sys as the low runs out
ahead of an approaching upr trof. The thermals indicate all rain.

The timing is late Fri and Fri ngt attm, although some timing changes
cannot be ruled out. A more intense low would be possible if the upr
trof arrives quicker, or if the remnant low slows. A cold front then
brings a chc for some more shwrs on sat. Everything is progged to
clear out on Sun with some fair wx clouds likely as the cold pool
aloft passes thru. The post frontal high reaches pa Sun ngt. This
should be close enough to allow for the winds to decouple and
produce prime radiational cooling cond. As a result, the colder mex
was used for temps Sun ngt as opposed to the warmer model blends.

Frost freeze issues are possible if this unfolds as currently
expected. Fair wx with a warming trend for the beginning of next
week with an upr ridge building into the region.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight into
Wednesday, and then moves overhead Wednesday night.

Mainly ifr, with light to moderate rain across much of the area.

Some pockets of heavy rain will be possible during the mid to
late morning hours. Can not rule out an isolated tstms into
early afternoon. Potential for lifr or lower conds in
stratus fog for evening push. Lifr stratus and fog expected
through the overnight.

Conditions improve late tonight early Thursday back toVFR.

E winds are increasing with to gusts to 25kt for coastal
terminals Wed morning. Winds subside in the early afternoon,
becoming light and variable for evening push. Winds become
westerly late late tonight early Thursday morning.

Llws possible with SE winds at 40-45 kt at 2 kft.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi62 min E 9.7 G 12 48°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi47 min SE 7 G 9.9 52°F 48°F1014.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi87 min ESE 14 G 16 47°F 44°F5 ft1015.7 hPa (-1.4)47°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi47 min 50°F 44°F1015.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi47 min E 8 G 12 51°F 46°F1013.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi37 min ESE 21 G 25 49°F 48°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi47 min ESE 12 G 16 50°F 45°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi24 minE 9 G 151.00 miRain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%1014.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi81 minESE 52.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F54°F100%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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E9E9S8SE7S7S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S9
2 days agoN9NW9NW10
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SW11SW10SW11SW9SW9
G17
SW5SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmNE6E8E11

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:35 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.10.50.20.511.72.32.72.92.72.41.91.30.60.10.10.61.21.92.52.92.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:04 AM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:24 AM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:54 PM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:50 PM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.61.21.41.30.90.1-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.800.91.31.41.20.6-0.2-0.9-1.5-1.6-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.