Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook University, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:35PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:30 PM EST (22:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 323 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain likely with chance of freezing drizzle in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 323 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves east of the forecast waters early this evening. High pressure then builds in tonight and remains over the waters through Saturday morning. Another frontal system will impact the waters Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure then begins to build back into the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook University, NY
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location: 40.93, -73.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212044
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
344 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Friday
night, then moves offshore Saturday. A low pressure system
impacts the region Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure
returns Monday through Tuesday. Another low moves into the
region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A cold frontal boundary will move through the region early this
evening. Gusts will be limited both ahead of the front and in
the cold advection behind the front as winds aloft will remain
rather weather, 20-25kt, and the cold advection will not be too
strong. Also, little moisture was with the front, so few if any
clouds will be associated with the passage.

The sub tropical high will remain off the southeast coast at
least through tonight, and even through Friday night. At the mid
and upper levels near zonal flow will begin to become
northwesterly as ridging builds into the central united states.

Increasing subsidence and dry mid and lower levels will limit
clouds, with only thin high cloudiness possible tonight. Winds
may decouple late overnight and the normally colder areas may
end up several degrees lower than currently forecast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
The sub tropical high will remain anchored off the southeastern
coast through the period with a building ridge moving into the
eastern states and eastern canada through Friday night. By early
Saturday morning the ridge axis is still expected to remain to
the west of the region. Much of the time will be nearly cloud
free as subsidence increases, with only high clouds expected.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Deep layer ridging gradually shifts eastward on Saturday ahead
of an approaching short wave. Deterministic models tend to
struggle with ridges of this strength, often showing too quick
of a break down eastward progression. As expected, the latest
model runs have slowed the progression of the high eastward
ahead of the approaching short wave, which in turn has delayed
the onset of precipitation for Saturday into Saturday night. The
main question initially will be how much cold air is able to
remain across the interior as the surface high moves offshore
and a warm front slowly approaches overnight. There may be at
least a few hours overnight as surface temperatures remain near
freezing for ice pellets and perhaps a light coating of freezing
rain as warm advection strengthens aloft. A non-diurnal trend
will occur though, with surface temperatures steadily rising
through the morning, effectively ending any threat of frozen
precipitation by the morning commute.

By Sunday, the area will be firmly in the warm sector with the
warm front to the north. Temperatures will be well above normal.

Trended slightly higher than guidance across areas to the north
and west of the city where s-sw flow will be predominant.

Otherwise, expect a period of heavy rainfall as deep layer
moisture rapidly increases through the morning, with pwat values
near the upper percentile values for time of year. There is
potential for a rumble of thunder too as colder temperatures
aloft associated with the short wave lead to elevated
instability, which may locally enhance rainfall rates. Refer to
the hydrology section for more information. By afternoon, a dry
slot aloft develops, with rain rates decreasing from west to
east, though light drizzle or rain will still be possible,
especially as the cold front moves through later in the day.

With cyclonic flow remaining and a strong short wave expected to
merge with the departing system, another secondary cold front
is expected to move through Sunday night, with a chance for
showers and snow showers.

Outside of aforementioned rain, there will be a significant
strengthening in winds as the system begins to depart, and cold
advection strengthens Sunday night into Monday night. At the
very least a wind advisory may be needed, though there is
potential for a few hours of winds bordering on high wind -
sustained 40 mph with gusts close to 58 mph, especially across
the east end with the departing low level jet Monday morning.

Thereafter, the northern stream becomes more dominant, with a
series of quick clipper systems possible, though timing and
placement remains uncertain. Temperatures are expected to settle
closer to climatological normals during that time frame.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure then slowly builds in from the west overnight.

Vfr through the period.

West winds decrease to 10 kt or less this evening. Winds turn to the
nw late tonight and Friday and should remain just right of 310
magnetic throughout much of the day.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 11 51°F 35°F1013.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi42 min N 8.9 G 11 50°F 37°F1013.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi42 min N 14 G 16 48°F 35°F1015.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi40 min W 12 G 14 45°F 40°F5 ft1015.1 hPa (+0.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi30 min W 9.7 G 14 45°F 40°F1015.2 hPa (+0.7)37°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi42 min 48°F 38°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi34 minWNW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds50°F30°F48%1013.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi34 minWNW 710.00 miFair49°F30°F50%1014.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi38 minWNW 910.00 miFair51°F30°F45%1013.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi37 minVar 610.00 miFair51°F30°F46%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4E6E8E7E7E8E8NE5N4N9N6NW7NW6W5W9W10W15NW18
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1 day agoN3SW3CalmNW5CalmN5N6N6N3N6N6NE6NE6N6NE4N5NE6CalmSE3S5SE3E5E7E6
2 days agoNW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EST     6.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EST     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:32 PM EST     7.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:53 PM EST     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.96.55.23.41.5-0.1-1.1-10.1245.86.96.95.94.22.30.5-0.8-1.2-0.51.13.15

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EST     6.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:29 PM EST     6.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:01 PM EST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.86.45.23.41.60-1-101.83.95.76.86.85.94.22.40.7-0.6-1.1-0.6134.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.