Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook University, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:55PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:21 PM EST (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1019 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Today..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft early, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely especially after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1019 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build to the south through Saturday, while low pressure passes well to the north on Saturday. A back door cold front will pass through Sunday night, then return north as a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook University, NY
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location: 40.93, -73.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191540
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1040 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build to the south through Saturday, while
low pressure passes well to the north on Saturday. A back door
cold front will pass through Sunday night, then return north as
a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for
Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will return for mid
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High level clouds a bit more opaque than earlier anticipated due
jet energy rounding a departing upper trough across new england.

This may impact high temperatures slightly on the lower side of
the guidance.

Skies should become partly sunny this afternoon. Temps will be
5-10 degrees warmer than those of yesterday, with highs mostly
in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Zonal flow will prevail aloft between a flat trough passing to
the north and ridging along the SE coast. After one more cold
night inland with lows in the teens 20s, and lower 30s for nyc
metro and most of long island, downslope flow WAA will result in
a mild day, with high temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s. It
will however be brisk, as a tightening pressure gradient between
low pressure passing E across quebec and high pressure along
the SE coast generates W to wsw winds gusting up to 35 mph in
nyc and across long island, and 25-30 mph most elsewhere to the
north west.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Zonal upper flow through the weekend, with confluence of pacific
and polar jet to the north of the region, and southern stream
energy tracking through the deep south. Continued return flow
around southern high pressure Sat night into Sunday will allow
for dry and unseasonably mild conditions under a pacific air
mass, with high temps in the lower and mid 40s on Sunday.

A vigorous polar shortwave moving through southeastern canada
Sunday night will likely have a back door cold front pushing
through the region, bringing in a more seasonable canadian
maritime air mass for Monday.

Meanwhile, models in good agreement with the relatively tranquil
pattern being interrupted early next week by the pacific
energy coming into the western states today. This pacific
shortwave will amplify through the SW states, and eventually
phase with subtropical jet energy. The resultant deep closed
low is then expected to gradually track NE across the central
plains and mid mississippi valley Sunday into mon, before
approaching the northeast by Tuesday as it begins phasing with
northern stream energy. There are still some timing amplitude
differences with this energy, which is manifesting in
timing track differences of a resultant frontal system as it
tracks toward the region Monday night into Tuesday. This model
spread should decrease over the next 24 hrs as pacific energy
comes onshore, but subtle model differences may continue
through Sunday until the subtropical and pacific energy phase.

Regardless, there has a been consistent model-to-model and run-
to-run signal for a quick moving moderate to heavy rain event
for Monday night into Tuesday, in response to strong deep
layer lift (region under of nose of 65-70 kt LLJ and left front
quad of a 100+ kt jet streak in difluent upper flow) of a
subtropical moisture plume with pw +2 to + 3 standard deviations
above normal over the region, focused ahead of the cold front
and a surface wave. Before that, still appears there is
potential for a light wintry mix N NW of nyc metro Monday
morning as a warm front moves north with increasing theta-e
advection.

The frontal system pushes through on Tuesday, with breezy
conditions and CAA in its wake, returning dry and more
seasonable temps for Wed thu.

Aviation 16z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure remains centered to the southwest of the region
through tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Winds may briefly strengthen to 10-14 kt this afternoon with an
occasional gust to 18 kt. Otherwise, W flow gradually backs to SW by
this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi58 min W 2.9 G 7 30°F 35°F1016.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi52 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 31°F 35°F1016.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 29 mi82 min W 14 G 16 30°F 3 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi52 min NW 9.9 G 13 31°F 32°F1018.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi92 min WNW 18 G 21 35°F 42°F4 ft1018.4 hPa (+0.4)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi52 min 31°F 35°F1018.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi92 min W 16 G 18 34°F 40°F2 ft1018.4 hPa (+0.4)18°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi26 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast35°F16°F46%1016.6 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi30 minW 910.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1016.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi29 minWNW 1010.00 miFair34°F14°F44%1017 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13NW14NW12
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G18
NW5NW3NW7W5W3W4W5W4W5W5SW4W4W3W7W8W10
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1 day agoNW7NW7NW7NW9NW8NW9NW11NW11N11N10N11N12NW9N11NW12NW9N10N4NW11NW10NW11NW6NW12NW16
G19
2 days agoS6SE7SE9SE6CalmE4E4CalmE5E6E6E6E5CalmE4E5N4N3NE5E4NE5NE4N3N9

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:25 AM EST     6.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:36 PM EST     6.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:00 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.95.953.72.31.10.30.31.12.54.15.46.36.45.64.22.71.30.2-0.20.31.53.14.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM EST     5.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:39 PM EST     6.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:13 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.75.753.72.41.20.40.20.82.23.75.15.96.15.44.22.71.40.3-0.20.11.22.74.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.