Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 1:04 AM   Moonset 9:43 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A back door cold front moves through the area this evening, and then becomes nearly stationary into Tuesday. A frontal wave moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure settles across Thursday, followed potentially by a back door cold front on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 291951 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 351 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A back door cold front moves through the region this evening, and becomes nearly stationary into Tuesday. A couple of frontal waves then move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Weak high pressure settles across Thursday, followed potentially by a back door cold front on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend, followed by high pressure building early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A back door cold front was moving through Cape Cod and into Rhode Island and into portions of southeastern Connecticut late this afternoon, and will push through the region by this evening. Meanwhile sea breeze boundaries were moving northward across Long Island Sound, southern Connecticut and into northeastern New Jersey. A few showers have developed across the lower Hudson Valley and into northeastern New Jersey where surface based CAPE was up to 1000 J/kg, and mixed layer was around 500 J/kg, and also where surface based instability has become maximized. CAMs continue to show scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening. Then will keep chance/slight chance probabilities tonight as some shortwave energy moves into the upper ridge. Chances of precipitation will be limited by the upper ridge in the vicinity with dry upper levels and subsidence. Also, with an east to southeast flow a low level inversion will set up. Low level clouds develop in the wake of the back door cold front under the low level inversion.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A nearly stationary boundary is expected to remain to the west and southwest of the region, possibly moving slightly northward as a warm front later Tuesday, and then shift northward as developing wave along the boundary track through the coastal areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. An east to southeast flow behind the back door front will persist Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping a maritime airmass across the region. After well above normal temperatures Monday, temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals Tuesday through Wednesday. The area will be capped, and there is little to no elevated CAPE so will not mention any chances of thunder.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
An uncertain long term period in terms of the details, especially with respect to the behavior of a back door cold front late this week, along with the timing of a weakening frontal system towards the second half of the weekend.

With respect to the beginning of the period for Thursday and Friday look for mainly dry conditions. A warm front lifts north of the area Wed night into Thursday. After seasonable temperatures Wednesday night, temperatures should be able to get above normal once again during Thursday as 850 mb temps attempt to climb above 10 C once again as heights build. With a weak pressure gradient in place an onshore flow will attempt to develop during the day. This will make the temperatures forecast difficult, especially closer to the coast.
Went above NBM for the most part with respect to temps, especially further inland where the effects of any light onshore flow out of the SE would be minimized. Towards Friday much of the guidance is now pointing towards the warm front that lift north of the area to become stationary, then settle south as a cold front from the north and northeast as high pressure along the Eastern Canadian coast attempts to build south. This will likely aid in the cold front getting driven further south and into the area Friday. For now have kept PoPs minimal across northeastern portions of the CWA late Thursday and into Friday, although a few sprinkles or light showers cannot be ruled out but any moisture from the boundary should be rather shallow. Temperatures overall into Friday should average a bit closer to normal, with warmer temperatures further south and west and cooler temperatures further north and east.

For the weekend the global guidance has gradually slowed the progression of a weakening frontal boundary. This is mainly because heights attempt to rise again across the area and this will make any eastward progression of showers ahead of the cold front more difficult. Have introduced slight chance and chance showers for the day Saturday, but model trends and latest consensus pointing to Saturday remaining predominantly dry. Thus, Saturday night into Sunday appears to be the time frame for relatively higher chance PoPs as the boundary slowly pushes into the region. Look for more in the way of clouds, but a washout of the second half of the weekend is looking less likely at this time as the upper level ridge over the areas doesn't really break down until the day on Sunday. Will continue the shower chances through Sunday night, with PoPs decreasing into Monday AM. High pressure should build behind the weakened boundary later Monday and into Tuesday of next week. Warmer temperatures may return on Monday as 850 mb temps warm once again.
This far out sfc winds are always in question this time of year, but the guidance consensus is suggestive of a SW flow which would get a large majority of the area above NBM guidance. For now have went warmer than the NBM guidance for Monday as clouds should begin to break.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A back door cold front approaches this afternoon and moves through this evening.

VFR through at least 01-03z for most spots before lowering to IFR soon thereafter. A few showers are possible late this afternoon and early this evening and an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Have VCSH in the TAFs to reflect this potential, mainly for NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. IFR conditions will prevail early Tuesday morning with conditions to improving to MVFR mid to late Tuesday morning.

SE-S winds this afternoon around 10kt or less. Winds then begin to back to the ESE-E this evening and then E overnight. E-ENE winds for Tuesday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A shower, possibly a thunderstorm, may occur approx 20-01z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday aftn: MVFR, possibly VFR at times.

Tuesday night: Lowering to IFR with showers possible.

Wednesday: IFR early, improving to MVFR with showers possible.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient remains in place over the coastal waters leading to an extended period of sub small craft conditions. Ocean seas are expected to be at 2 to 3 feet through the remainder of the week. Small craft conditions are not expected to potentially return until late in the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonset
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