Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM   Moonset 1:51 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KCTP 030843 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 443 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Not as warm but pleasant end to the week with increasing clouds -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Sunshine to start today will be followed by increasing clouds into tonight. High pressure channeling down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will maintain dry wx over the majority of the CWA (eastern 2/3) through 00Z Sat with max POPs to the west of the US219 corridor. This area should be in the warm sector where the most unstable air will reside. A couple of locally heavy t-storm downpours with spot amounts >1" will be possible on the edge of higher pwat air surging in from the upper OH Valley. The 24hr maxTchange will be considerably cooler over the central and southeastern ridge/valley region this afternoon with fcst highs giving back 7-15 degrees from yesterdays near- record to record breaking temps.

Shower activity should eventually expand west to east through tonight as an increasingly moist east/southeast flow brings widespread low clouds and perhaps some fog/mist on the ridgetops. Still downplaying non-severe t-storm potential given increasing low level stability/CAD pattern setup and lack of MUCAPE. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM.
No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers.

Rain/showers continue through Sunday night with highs recovering 5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA Some isolated convection is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability, limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00 inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The extended period will trend milder and remain unsettled with several chances for rain. A cold front will stall near or south of the MD line Monday and Tuesday before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps will trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s.

With several chances for rain next week along with persistent mild temperatures, green up should rapidly expand into northern PA thus ending the spring fire weather season. Additionally, there is no chance for frost or freeze conditions through the end of the week.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
00z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across central PA terminal sites into Friday evening. Confidence on this scenario is fairly high (70-90%).

Two potential flies in the ointment. First, an area of lower cloudiness backing in from the Atlantic across NJ and perhaps southeastern PA later tonight and early Friday. There is low (10-15%), but non-zero chance that these clouds reach KLNS for a brief time. If they did, fuel alternate or even IFR ceiling bases would be possible. Secondarily, an area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in the day Friday (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. Once again, the threat is relatively low (10-20%), but certainly non-zero. The threat for MVFR cigs does increase substantially between 22z Fri and 02z Sat across the Laurels and Alleghenies, including JST, BFD, AOO, and UNV.

Light surface winds overnight (5 kt or less), will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the afternoon at KJST.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd: SITE OBSERVED TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD Altoona 87F 87 in 1954 Harrisburg 90F 88 in 1913 State College ??* 86 in 1938 Williamsport 89F 89 in 2018

*Official report from State College will be available Friday morning.

May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the 13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is June 1st.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Market Street Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:47 AM EDT     6.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:29 PM EDT     6.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Philadelphia
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:50 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM EDT     6.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:55 PM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,