Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 4:23 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KCTP 051743 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Rain tapers to showers and a few thunderstorms to close out the first weekend of May -Warmer and drier on Monday; increasingly unsettled Tue-Fri -Late week cooling trend continues through Mother's Day weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The steadier rain has shifted into the northeastern tier of the state. Showers are expected to develop this afternoon across the western periphery of the CWA as time moves forward. The CAD pattern with a moist east southeast upslope flow and ridgetop fog should reign supreme over the northeastern quadrant of the CWA with highs stuck in the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, it looks like the western and southwestern portions of the area will break into the warm sector with cloud breaks allowing temps to reach the 65-70F range. The warmer temps will fuel enough CAPE to mention a t-storm mainly along/west of US219 with a MRGL SWO (1/5) from the SPC still clipping Warren and Somerset Counties.

Rather mild tonight as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. Some lingering showers are possible especially near the front. Guidance remains bullish on low clouds and fog development overnight which may become locally dense and widespread in spots into early Monday morning. Fcst lows are +10-15F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A.M. low clouds and fog should give way to some sun by Monday afternoon especially across the northern half of CPA as high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes directs drier/lower pwat air into the region. Following a rather cool and damp weekend, temperatures are forecast to trend much warmer with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. The aforementioned frontal boundary settling near the MD line will maintain a low chance of showers/t-storms over the southern tier into Monday night.
Expect some fog again Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier.

Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F.
However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley and a 500mb short wave could result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean 850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms continues to be focused on Thursday, with a deepening upstream trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and across the area.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal convection Friday and Saturday, along with a downward trend in temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR to low-end MVFR conds are expected to persist across most of Central PA this afternoon, as moist southeasterly flow off of the Atlantic continues. Some modest improvement is possible along and west of the spine of the Alleghenies, prior to the development of scattered convection. The best chc brief improvement is at JST (and possibly BFD), late this aftn into this evening.

Areas of fog are likely to develop overnight into Monday morning, with ample low-level moisture and light winds beneath an inversion. LIFR appears to be probable at most, if not all, TAF sites by daybreak on Monday.

Central PA's airfields will be slow to improve Monday morning under widespread low clouds and fog, but should eventually see conds rise to at least MVFR during the afternoon hours. The Lower Susq Valley may be the latest to see improvement on Monday.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible late across S/W PA.

Tues night-Wed...Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible, esp N/W.

Thu...Rain/low cigs expected, with PM TSRA possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Market Street Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Tinicum National Wildlife Refuge
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tinicum National Wildlife Refuge, Darby Creek, Pennsylvania (2), Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,