Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Sea, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:12PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:06 AM EDT (13:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 726 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.gale watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon, then, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon, then becoming light and variable. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 726 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure developing across the ohio valley on Friday will pass south of the waters during the day on Saturday, and then well east of the waters Saturday night. High pressure builds to the northwest Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, another low tracks south of the waters Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Sea, NY
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location: 40.95, -72.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 281150
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
750 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front stalls just south of the region this morning.

Low pressure developing over the ohio valley rides along this
front, passing south of long island on Saturday. Another wave
of low pressure moves along the stalled frontal boundary Monday,
south of the region. High pressure builds to the northwest
Sunday through Wednesday. The high weakens Thursday as a cold
front approaches from the northwest.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Areas of fog developed this morning with locally dense fog,
especially across interior sections. The fog should be short
lived, and dissipate mid morning. Issued a special weather
statement for the fog through 13z.

The area remains in between systems today, as a weak cold front
settles south of the area this morning and a shortwave diving
out of the upper midwest induces surface low development over
the ohio valley by this evening. In the meantime, light winds
early this morning have resulted in the development of patchy
fog across parts of the lower hudson valley and connecticut.

This should begin to lift around daybreak.

Expect the majority of the daylight hours today to remain dry
with high temperatures near normal for late july, in the low to
mid 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
As the developing surface low emerges off the DELMARVA coast
this evening and rides northeast along the stalled frontal
boundary, rain will overspread the area from southwest to
northeast around or shortly after sunset. Models continue to
indicate that the heaviest rainfall will be focused south of the
area, with a tight precipitation gradient on the northern edge
of the system. With this in mind, lowered QPF amounts for the
entire region. However, any northward adjustment in the track
of the low would bring higher rainfall totals back into the
local area. With precipitable water values expected to be in the
1.5-2 inch range, such a scenario would also increase the
flooding threat.

Rain begins to taper off late Saturday morning, although the
weather will remain somewhat unsettled overall as the upper
trough lingers over the area. In addition, wind gusts of 25-35
mph are possible on Saturday as the low passes south of the
area. With plenty of cloud cover, temperatures during the day on
Saturday will remain below normal, generally in the 70s.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
An upper trough will remain along the eastern sea board Saturday
night into Tuesday as energy rotates through the trough, and an
upper level jet remains on the eastern side. The trough moves
little as a western atlantic ridge remains in place.

Some uncertainty remains with the forecast Saturday night into
Sunday as the trend has been for the low to track farther south with
the latest model runs. Currently the precipitation will be winding
down Saturday night as the low moves south and east of the region.

Another low is expected to develop across the mid atlantic region
late Sunday night into Monday and also track south and east. Again,
there is uncertainty as to where this low will track. Currently
precipitation will be possible, east of new york city, Sunday night
into Monday night.

The upper trough does weaken Monday night into Tuesday as the flow
until Wednesday night into Thursday when another shortwave rotates
into the northern flow and re amplifies the trough along the coast.

At the surface high pressure builds to the northwest Monday night
and Tuesday, then weakens as a cold front develops in response to
the digging shortwave, and brings a cold front to northwest of the
area during Thursday. Will mention thunder ahead of the cold front
as the area become marginally unstable.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
A weak cold front slowly moving through the area this morning
will stall south of long island later today. Low pressure
develops over the central appalachians this aftn... Tracking to
the mid-atlantic coast tonight.

MVFR to ifr for an hour or so... ThenVFR returns and prevails at
least into the eve. Weak cold front appears to be just N of long
island and nyc terminals as of 11z.

06z guidance continues to trend rain to the south... But have not
jumped on this just yet. Want to see the 12z model suite. Onset
may need to be pushed a few hours later and duration shortened.

MVFR to ifr also expected to return tonight... But timing is
uncertain.

Moderate confidence in winds. Pseudo seabreeze possible at the
coast this aftn.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi156 min S 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 71°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi76 min 72°F 69°F3 ft1011.6 hPa (+0.0)72°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 31 mi51 min N 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1010.9 hPa69°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 33 mi48 min NNE 1 G 2.9 72°F 69°F1011.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi48 min N 1 G 2.9 74°F 74°F1011.6 hPa
44069 39 mi81 min Calm G 1.9 74°F 76°F73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi54 min NW 1 G 1.9 74°F 1010.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY13 mi73 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW9
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S11SW9SW11SW10S8SW6SW4SW6SW6SW8SW7SW7SW6SW64S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7
1 day ago4NE8SE5SE7SE6535S6SW6S4CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7
2 days agoNE8NE6NE7NE6N7N5N7NE6NE6E4E3E3CalmNE7CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW4N4N4

Tide / Current Tables for New Suffolk, Peconic Bays, New York
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New Suffolk
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:02 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:25 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.72.32.72.92.72.31.71.20.60.20.20.71.42.12.7332.72.21.71.20.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:43 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:10 PM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.5-0.4-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.4-1-0.40.51.21.41.40.90.1-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.60.10.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.