Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Sea, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:01PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1225 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1225 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure retreats to the east, as an area of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary tracks from the ohio river valley today to near the mid-atlantic coast by Thursday morning. This low exits to the east on Thursday as a separate cold front pushes to our south, followed by weak high pressure building over the region into Friday. A frontal system will slowly approach the area on Friday, as the high retreats to the northeast, and then impacts the region over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Sea, NY
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location: 40.95, -72.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201838
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
238 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure retreats to the east, as an area of low pressure
riding along a stalled frontal boundary tracks from the ohio
river valley today to near the mid-atlantic coast by Thursday
morning. This low exits to the east on Thursday as a separate cold
front pushes to our south, followed by weak high pressure
building over the region into Friday. A frontal system will
slowly approach the area on Friday, as the high retreats to the
northeast, and then impacts the region over the weekend. High
pressure will build in behind the system into next Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect
latest observations. Clouds increase late this afternoon as a
northern stream shortwave approaches from the west. There could
be some stray showers by late afternoon as the shortwave
approaches, mainly across far western zones.

Highs today should be near normal, mainly from the mid 70s to
around 80 across the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
A northern stream trough builds into the area tonight, this
coupled with some low level instability (focused mainly over the
southern 1 2 of the cwa) should bring some showers to the
region tonight, and possibly a rumble of thunder as well (mainly
to the southern 1 2 of the cwa). Precipitable waters increase
to from 1.75 to around 2 inches (with values around 2 inches
focused over the southern 1 2 of the cwa), so locally heavy
rainfall is possible, especially in association with any
stronger convection overnight. Refer to the hydrology section
of the afd for details on expected rainfall amounts and any
impacts.

There is some uncertainty on the timing of the showers tonight,
but for now a consensus timing would be for the most numerous
showers and best chance for any locally heavy rainfall to occur
from around 9pm- 5am.

The timing for the end of the rainfall has slowed, with showers
now expected to linger into Thursday morning. The showers
likely should come to an end by mid-late morning, as the axis
of the northern stream trough exits to the east, allowing for a
drying NW flow to set up over the region by afternoon.

Lows tonight and highs on Thursday should be near to slightly
above normal.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
The models are in good agreement with the general pattern in the
long term, although some timing and placement issues remain. An
approximately 1020 hi will be set up from the maritimes swwd to cntrl
new england fri. At the same time, SW flow aloft develops as an h5
low spins over the midwest. This will result in increasing thetae
and chcs for shwrs and tstms Fri and particularly Fri ngt. The upr
support arrives Sat and Sat ngt. The GFS is a bit faster than the
ecmwf. Likely pops have been included during the day on Sat based on
a blend of all of the model data. As the upr trof arrives on Sun and
mon, there will be additional chances for pcpn. These appear to be a
bit more diurnally focused, with daytime heating providing the added
instability boost needed. High pres then builds in on Tue and dries
out the area. The nbm was used for temps thru the period.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure approaches from the ohio valley tonight and then
passes near or just south of the terminals Thursday morning.

Vfr this afternoon evening, then MVFR ifr late tonight in
moderate to occasionally heavy rain.VFR conditions return
Thursday morning in the 10 to 13z timeframe.

S winds 5 to 10 kt back around to the NE Thursday morning as the
low passes to the south and east.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi100 min E 3.9 G 3.9 68°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 25 mi52 min 70°F 64°F1010.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi80 min S 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 65°F2 ft1011.5 hPa (-1.1)65°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 31 mi60 min S 6 G 7 65°F 1011.5 hPa57°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 33 mi52 min S 9.9 G 13 71°F 62°F1010.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 68°F1010.9 hPa
44069 39 mi70 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 76°F65°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi58 min S 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 62°F1010.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW8
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G6
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G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY13 mi77 minVar 510.00 miFair75°F62°F64%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
G18
NW12NW12NW9N4NW4CalmN8N7NE6NE3NE5N3N3N3N3NE4NE7SE64465SW10
1 day agoSW12
G21
SW16
G23
SW13
G19
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SW8SW9SW9SW8SW6SW7W3SW3W4NW9NW11N12N13
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NW14NW7NW14
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2 days agoS6S7S7S6SW6S3S4S5SW6SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9SW10
G17
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G23

Tide / Current Tables for New Suffolk, Peconic Bays, New York
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New Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:22 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:39 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.61.21.82.42.72.92.72.31.81.20.50.10.10.71.42.12.6332.82.41.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:15 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.41.10.3-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.4-1-0.30.61.31.41.30.80-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.60.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.