Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 4:42 AM   Moonset 6:27 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  

ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 402 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this morning, then slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers.Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 402 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure off nova scotia shifts farther out into the atlantic today as a cold front approaches the region from the west, passing through tonight. Behind it, weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday, before the front returns as a warm front Wednesday. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday.

FXUS61 KOKX 060833 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 433 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off Nova Scotia shifts farther out into the Atlantic today as a cold front approaches the region from the west, passing through tonight. Behind it, weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday, before the front returns as a warm front Wednesday. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday, and possibly into the weekend as well.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Ridging and surface high pressure that has been in place continues to shift out farther into the Atlantic as a shortwave tracks through the Northeast. Meanwhile, a closed upper low swings into eastern Canada and will help send a cold front through the region tonight.

Lingering showers across eastern LI and southeast CT largely come to an end toward or shortly after daybreak as the passing shortwave axis shifts east and away from the region. Behind it, a bit of fog has developed in some locales with the residual moisture, but has generally remained patchy based on obs and satellite data, and should erode by mid to late morning.

Temperatures jump 10 to 20 degrees compared to Sunday with ongoing WAA in the resulting SW flow, likely rebounding into the low to mid 70s away from the coast. Should more breaks in the cloud cover develop, temperatures inland could achieve mid to upper 70s.

Can't rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon, mainly across the interior, ahead of the trailing cold front, but coverage appears limited on CAMs at this point with weak lift and moisture. Maintained a low chance of a thunderstorm as well, but likely isolated at best. The front moves through tonight, and the flow veers NW as a result, bringing in drier air and decreasing cloud cover overnight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes behind the fropa on Tuesday. This should set up the clearest day of the week so far, with drier air working down in the northerly flow.
A mild afternoon for most with downsloping helping the interior and areas away from the coast to warm into the mid to upper 70s. Lower 80s possible in the urban metro of NE NJ. Much more sky than clouds should be apparent and sunshine prevails much of the day.

Thereafter, the front that pushed through Monday night stalls over the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday in zonal flow, returning to the region Tuesday night as a warm front as the high erodes and low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. This will reintroduce rain chances by Wed AM, and perhaps some thunderstorms into Wednesday afternoon. Still a bit too far for our CAM coverage, so timing and coverage will need to be refined over the next day or two. SPC currently has the region outlined in a general thunder risk.

Wednesday is likely the hottest day of the week for at least portions of the area as the warm front attempts to lift north.
Exceptions may be eastern LI and southern CT, where onshore southerly flow will limit temperatures. Elsewhere, low 80s possible, with mid 80s into NE NJ. The attendant cold front passes through Wednesday night as the low exits to our east, but the pattern remains unsettled into late week as a wave of low pressure along the boundary to the south approaches thereafter.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley on Thursday with a secondary low center forming and passing over us or just off to our south Thursday night. As energy continues to transfer from the parent low to the secondary low center, a lingering trough between the two centers remains near the forecast area during Friday. Rain is likely Thursday and Thursday night, with still some chances of showers during Friday with moisture convergence along the trough along with some shortwave lift from aloft. An isolated rumble of thunder can't be ruled out mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as elevated instability will be present.

There's some uncertainty regarding the weekend, but overall there seems to be a model trend over the past day or two toward drier conditions. Although both days currently feature a chance of showers in the forecast, it can very well end up dry all weekend. There are indications of deep weak ridging for Saturday, then an area of low pressure that may pass too far to our south and west on Sunday to bring showers.

NBM was used for temperatures through the long term period. Cooler than normal through Saturday with a return toward more seasonable temperatures on Sunday.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front slowly approaches from the west, passing through tonight.

IFR or lower through the morning push, improving to low-end MVFR this afternoon for some terminals. IFR/MVFR this evening improves to VFR late tonight. Iso TSRA late aftn/early evening, but not enough probability and coverage to mention in TAFs.

Light and variable winds through the morning push, possibly favoring NE to N the most. Winds shift more SW-W for the afternoon, but remaining under 10kt. Light N winds for late tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to timing of the changing of flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Improving to VFR.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night with showers likely.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower AM, improving to VFR PM. Chance of showers.
Thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely, mainly in the afternoon and night with an isolated TSTM possible.

Friday: MVFR/VFR with showers possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday.

Easterly winds increase on Thursday, and this onshore flow combined with swell being generated from low pressure passing nearby is expected to build ocean seas to advisory levels starting late Thursday night into Friday morning, and lasting well into Friday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night.

A statement will be issued for localized minor flooding with tonight's high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the south shore back bays of Nassau County.

A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM EDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM EDT     8.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Upton, NY,