Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jefferson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:31PM Monday November 20, 2017 1:03 AM EST (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 7:23PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 927 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est Monday...
Overnight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 927 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds southwest of the waters overnight, eventually offshore Monday into Monday night. High pressure departs to the east Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high builds late week before next system impacts the area next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jefferson, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200555
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1255 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds southwest of the region tonight, eventually
offshore Monday into Monday night. High pressure departs to the
east Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high
builds late week before next system impacts the area next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Upper trough axis now past most of the area. A sprinkle or two,
perhaps a wet snow flake, is left in the strato-cumulus over ne
nj and nyc. Expect this to be gone shortly.

At the surface, high pressure will build to the southwest of
the region. Winds will remain gusty out of the wnw, but will be
lowering in magnitude as mixing weakens through the night.

Lows were a blend of mav ecs as met numbers seemed too high.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The region is more in between the polar and subtropical upper
level jets. In the mid levels, more of a ridging trend will take
shape. At the surface, high pressure moves eastward towards the
carolina coastline Monday and then off into the atlantic Monday
night.

Dry conditions are expected through the period. Monday is
expected to be cooler, about 5 degrees below normal with more
gusty wnw flow, mitigating sensible heat transfer.

For Monday night, winds are expected to lower with gusts
diminishing. With mostly clear conditions, expect radiational
cooling to result in a more typical vast range of lows between
the urban heat island and inland rural sections.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Better model agreement today in this active and progressive pattern.

Aloft, active northern stream expected as multiple shortwaves pass
during this time frame.

Looks like the operational GFS has now trended much closer to other
global models with handling of mid week trough. Latest GFS is
notably weaker with trough along the gulf states Wednesday, and is
thus not developing a wave of low pressure off the coast Thursday,
like it did 24 hours ago.

As such, looks like WAA on the backside of the high will provide a
mild breezy day Tuesday, likely the warmest of this time frame.

Plenty of Sun will give way to increasing clouds as high level
moisture approaches, along with moisture advecting from the south in
the lower and mid levels. NAM wrf seems to be the most aggressive in
outputting precip ahead of the cold front. Still looks like best
chance for rain will be east of nyc late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Dry thereafter as ridge builds. A cold front passes with little
fanfare Friday, then next shortwave approaches this weekend. Colder
air advects in behind a front by Sunday. Minimal pops warranted next
weekend with this system.

Above normal temps Tuesday in WAA regime, then temps tumble to just
below normal from late Wednesday through Sunday. Looks like a cool
day Thursday, with a slight rebound Friday and Saturday before
falling back again Sunday. A model MOS blend followed which is in
line with latest wpc numbers.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
High pressure builds to the southwest today, then to the south
this evening.

Vfr through the TAF period.

W-wnw winds will continue through the afternoon. Gusts may end
up intermittent at times during the early morning hours before
increasing and becoming frequent after sunrise. Gusts should be
around 25 kt during the day at most terminals.

Winds will begin to back to towards the w-wsw in the evening as
gusts subside.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Late tonight-Tuesday evening Vfr. SW winds g20-35kt possible
Tuesday afternoon evening. Strongest gusts at eastern terminals.

Late Tuesday night-Wednesday MVFR possible with showers. Nw-n
winds g20-25kt possible in the afternoon.

Wednesday night-Friday Vfr. Nw-n winds g15-25kt possible
Wednesday night.

Marine
Gusts today to around 30 kt all waters. Should be able to
cancel gale warning at 4 am and go to sca.

Sca conditions still probable for the ocean tonight while non-
ocean waters will see an eventual decrease in wind gusts to
below SCA late.

Winds increase in SW flow Tuesday. A few locations could
approach gale force or 35 kt. Winds then diminish somewhat
Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Low pressure passes
southeast of the waters Wednesday as the cold front crosses the
area. NW flow Wed night back to the west and diminishes further
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds. A cold front passes
Friday, with the ridge building back yet again.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are anticipated the next 7 days.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am est early this morning for anz330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jm pw
near term... Jm ds
short term... Jm
long term... Pw
aviation... Ds maloit
marine... Jm pw
hydrology... Jm pw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi63 min W 16 G 21 42°F 47°F33°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi51 min WNW 6 G 11 41°F 52°F1007.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi45 min WNW 9.9 G 14 41°F 51°F1007.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi153 min WNW 21 G 25 46°F 6 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi74 min W 19 G 25 42°F 2 ft34°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi48 min WSW 16 G 19 42°F 33°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi45 min NNW 13 G 18 41°F 51°F1010 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi73 min WNW 25 G 31 46°F 57°F7 ft1008.2 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Last
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S10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi67 minW 11 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F28°F62%1007.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi67 minW 810.00 miOvercast42°F28°F60%1007.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi71 minW 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast42°F27°F55%1007.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY24 mi70 minW 1210.00 miOvercast39°F32°F76%1008.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi70 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F27°F62%1008 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW17
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W9W7W6W7W11
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1 day agoCalmE3W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7SW9
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2 days agoW12
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NW14W10W7W7W6W5SW8W6W6

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:03 AM EST     6.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:12 PM EST     6.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:23 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.464.93.52.110.50.92.13.65.16.476.75.642.410.20.10.92.23.85.1

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:54 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:01 PM EST     7.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:23 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:24 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.55.94.73.31.90.80.412.345.56.77.26.85.53.92.30.90.10.21.12.64.25.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.