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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 536 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Today - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers late. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 536 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary will linger just south of the area or over southern portions of the area through the day. A frontal wave will push the boundary offshore late tonight into Wednesday. Weak high pressure remains in control the rest of Wednesday into early Thursday, with a weakening low passing to the north later on Thursday. Another back door cold front could potentially move through on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend, followed by high pressure building early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 300942 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 542 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will linger just south of the area or over southern portions of the area through the day. A frontal wave will push the boundary offshore late tonight into Wednesday. Weak high pressure remains in control the rest of Wednesday into early Thursday, with a weakening low passing to the north later on Thursday. Another back door cold front could potentially move through on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend, followed by high pressure building early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Shower/thunderstorm activity that was moving through eastern CT associated with some shortwave energy rounding the upper level ridge has moved east of the area. Removed PoPs for the rest of the morning as dry conditions are expected. The back door cold front has now stalled just southwest of our area. This boundary will linger there or just over southern parts of our area through the day today. Aloft, the upper level ridge axis will move overhead this morning.

Tricky temperature forecast again today with the nearby lingering boundary. Temperatures will likely be much cooler than yesterday.
The eastern 2/3 of the area should top out in the low 60s, with mid to upper 60s for NYC, northeast NJ.

A frontal wave passes through the area this evening and overnight.
Aloft, the upper level ridge breaks down and the flow become more zonal. The CAMs are all in decent agreement with a broken line of showers/thunderstorms moving into the Lower Hudson Valley between 22z and 00z this evening and then weakening significantly as it travels east. This is expected as there may be some elevated instability to work with just west of the area, but that falls off as you head east into a more stable environment thanks to a cool onshore flow. Added a slight chance of thunder for locations north and west of NYC. There may be some brief heavy downpours as well north and west of NYC. Due to the expected quick moving nature of any storms, flooding is not expected at this time.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday and remains in control through early Thursday, with the flow aloft remaining relatively zonal. A shortwave trough and associated weakening surface low then pass to the north later on Thursday. This feature could bring some showers to eastern portions of the area Thursday into Thursday night.

There will be a bit of a warming trend into Thursday mainly for locations away from the coast. Highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s for most on Wednesday. The surface flow becomes more southerly on Thursday and there could be quite the temperature gradient across the area. With an onshore flow from the start of the day, Long Island and coastal CT likely top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Meanwhile, some locations in northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley have the potential to touch 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An uncertain long term period in terms of the details, especially with respect to the behavior of a back door cold front late this week, along with the timing of a weakening frontal system towards the second half of the weekend.

With respect to the beginning of the period for Friday look for mainly dry conditions. Towards Friday much of the guidance is now pointing towards the warm front that lift north of the area to become stationary, then settle south as a cold front from the north and northeast as high pressure along the Eastern Canadian coast attempts to build south. This will likely aid in the cold front getting driven further south and into the area Friday.
Temperatures overall into Friday should average a bit closer to normal, with warmer temperatures further south and west and cooler temperatures further north and east.

For the weekend the global guidance has gradually slowed the progression of a weakening frontal boundary. This is mainly because heights attempt to rise again across the area and this will make any eastward progression of showers ahead of the cold front more difficult. Have introduced slight chance and chance showers for the day Saturday, but model trends and latest consensus pointing to Saturday remaining predominantly dry. Thus, Saturday night into Sunday appears to be the time frame for relatively higher chance PoPs as the boundary slowly pushes into the region. Look for more in the way of clouds, but a washout of the second half of the weekend is looking less likely at this time as the upper level ridge over the areas doesn't really break down until the day on Sunday. Will continue the shower chances through Sunday night, with PoPs decreasing into Monday AM. High pressure should build behind the weakened boundary later Monday and into Tuesday of next week. Warmer temperatures may return on Monday as 850 mb temps warm once again.
This far out sfc winds are always in question this time of year, but the guidance consensus is suggestive of a SW flow which would get a large majority of the area above NBM guidance. For now have went warmer than the NBM guidance for Monday as clouds should begin to break.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A back door cold front becomes stationary to the south and west this morning. A weak wave of low pressure passes across the terminals this evening.

IFR ceilings across NYC terminals and western Long Island terminals to start early this morning. MVFR ceilings are occurring at KSWF and KBDR. IFR may become more widespread towards day break with KGON likely staying MVFR. There is potential GON stays VFR through day break. Ceilings should then gradually lift back to MVFR 14-16z with potential of VFR returning in the afternoon (19-21z). MVFR should return tonight after 00z, but exact and extent is uncertain.

Showers are possible this evening and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

E-ENE through the TAF period mainly 10 kt or less. The flow should begin to back towards the NE or NNE this evening into tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR ceilings should develop at TEB 08-09z.

Timing of improving flight categories may be off by 1-3 hours.

Adjustments to timing of showers this evening possible. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: MVFR/IFR conditions with showers possible.

Wednesday: Becoming VFR. Chance of a shower early.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR afternoon into the night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient remains in place over the coastal waters leading to an extended period of sub small craft conditions. Ocean seas are expected to be at 2-3 feet through the remainder of the week. Small craft conditions are not expected to potentially return until late in the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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