Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jefferson, NY

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Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:18PM Monday July 23, 2018 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1223 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tstms likely. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1223 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. The waters will remain between weak low pressure to the west, and offshore high pressure building slowly westward. This will keep the waters under a prolonged period of southerly flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jefferson, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230419
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1219 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will persist to the west early this week, while
offshore high pressure builds slowly westward. An associated
frontal boundary will remain to the west through much of the
week, with an extended period of unsettled weather with the
chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. A prolonged period
of southerly flow will also result in high humidity.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1215 am edt... Band of heavier showers continues moving
northward into ct and the lower hudson valley, therefore have
updated pops to reflect latest radar trends. With a deep
southerly flow persisting, showers can still develop through the
overnight, with any shower bringing a moderate to heavy
rainfall.

Although pwat values remain high, modest flow has led to fairly
quick moving storms that are limiting overall rainfall amounts.

While air mass does have sfc-based instability, most of that
instability is above h8, so without an organized source of lift
coverage should be limited. Do expect that to change tonight,
especially out east, as heights rise aloft over the western
atlantic and push rain band and associated mid level forcing
back westward from the atlantic.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
An unsettled pattern will be in place the next few days as the
region remains sandwiched between a deep upper trough over the
eastern us and downstream high pressure stationed offshore and
building slowly westward. This setup will result in deep
tropical moisture and uncomfortably high dewpoints.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected into Monday
night. Main areas of activity should be across eastern ct long
island, also from nyc north west, during Monday afternoon, where
instability looks to be maximized at least into early afternoon,
and as multiple bands of enhanced mid level cyclonic vorticity
pivot counterclockwise around the offshore upper high to
provide some lift.

Precip chances should start to diminish later Mon afternoon into
mon night as the offshore high continues to build westward.

Temperatures will be near seasonable but with very muggy conditions.

A high risk of rip currents will continue on Monday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue with an omega block in
place, keeping a large scale upper ridge over the southwestern us
and western atlantic, and a large scale upper trough between. As a
result, broad southwest flow will continue to advect moisture into
our region, while both large scale forcing for ascent and a series
of short waves maintain a chance of rain through at least late week.

Although thunderstorms will be possible, the largely tropical air
mass and weak, wet adiabatic lapse rates may act to temper more
widespread coverage. Regardless, periods of heavy rainfall will be
likely, though the timing and placement of these showers will be
uncertain for any given day. There is some indication that a cold
front may approach or even move through by late week, but with
little change in the large scale pattern expect a quick return to
unsettled weather.

Daytime temperatures will remain a few degrees below climatological
normals due to cloud cover and onshore flow, while overnight
temperatures will be above normal. Humidity levels will remain
uncomfortable with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.

Aviation 04z Monday through Friday
The area remains between low pressure to the west and high
pressure offshore. The high begins to move west late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.

Ceilings ifr to MVFR, with scattered showers overnight and into
early Monday morning. There is also a low chance that a few of
the showers may produce lightning and thunder overnight into
Monday. Ceilings become widespread ifr, to even lifr at times,
overnight with MVFR to ifr visibilities in fog.

Ceilings improve to MVFR Monday morning, and then remain
through the forecast period. There may be a brief period ofVFR
ceilings in the afternoon.

Winds will remain from the SE through the period with any gusts
ending this evening. Gusts will return Monday.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night-Thursday MVFRVFR with periods of shra and a
chance of tstms. S gusts 20-25 kt during the day.

Friday MVFRVFR in possible showers thunderstorms, with
lighter winds.

Marine
Sca continues for the ocean waters, with 10-ft seas at the
coastal buoys and gusts to near 25 kt overnight into Monday.

Winds may increase slightly overnight on the ocean, with some
gusts up to 25 kt as well, and could again approach 25 kt on the
great south bay Mon late morning and afternoon.

Prolonged, steady onshore flow should allow ocean seas to
continue at or above 5 ft into late week. Additionally, a
period of sca-level gusts may be possible on all waters
Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient strengthens
between high pressure to the east, and low pressure to the west.

Hydrology
An unsettled period of weather continues into late week, with
several inches of rainfall possible. The main threat will be
minor urban and poor draining flooding, though isolated flash
flooding may be possible in any heavier showers and
thunderstorms that develop.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk from 6 am edt this morning through this
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Md goodman
near term... CB goodman
short term... Goodman
long term... Md
aviation... 19
marine... Md goodman
hydrology... Md goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi41 min ESE 7 G 8 74°F 74°F1017.9 hPa
44069 17 mi35 min SE 16 G 18 77°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi35 min SSE 8 G 11 74°F 77°F1019.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi20 min SE 12 G 14 73°F 1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi45 min SSE 12 G 16 75°F 1 ft72°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi35 min 71°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi75 min SE 14 G 16 73°F 70°F8 ft1017.5 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi69 minSE 129.00 miOvercast75°F75°F100%1018.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi69 minSE 97.00 miOvercast75°F75°F100%1018.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi73 minESE 610.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1018.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY24 mi72 minSE 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1017.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi72 minSE 8 G 156.00 miFog/Mist74°F71°F91%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE17
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1 day agoNE3CalmCalmE5E5E5E7E10E14E11E12
G20
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmS3SE9S11SE8S7S7S11S10S8S9S8S5S4E3SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
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Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     6.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:20 PM EDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.520.90.50.91.83.24.65.76.15.84.93.72.51.40.91.22.13.54.96.26.96.86

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.31.70.60.30.81.93.34.85.96.25.84.93.72.31.10.71.12.23.65.26.57.16.96

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.