Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jefferson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:06PM Friday October 19, 2018 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 1:48AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 728 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 728 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure along the mid atlantic and southeast coast will move into the western atlantic tonight. A cold front will approach late tonight and move across the waters late Saturday into Saturday evening. Strong high pressure builds west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high pressure pushes offshore Monday followed by a weak clipper like system tracking well north of the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jefferson, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191955
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
355 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure along the mid atlantic and southeastern coast will
drift into the western atlantic tonight as low pressure moves
through eastern canada and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The cold front will move across the region late
Saturday into Saturday evening. Strong high pressure builds
west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building
into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high will
shift off the mid atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak
clipper like system tracking through new england on Tuesday.

High pressure then returns for mid week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The forecast remains consistent with the previous forecast and
current model guidance. As such, precipitation is expected to
develop later this evening as the upper ridge moves into the
western atlantic and one shortwave rotates through the eastern
longwave trough. Increased probabilities to likely for the
overnight with increased confidence and model consistency. This
will be associated with a second shortwave rotating through the
upper longwave trough and associated cold frontal boundary.

With the front isentropic lift will be increasing. A mild
airmass remains in place ahead of the cold front and
temperatures are expected to remain mild and not drop off too
quickly.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
The amplifying eastern trough and strong western ridge will keep
the progression of the front slow, and the chances of
precipitation will remain through Saturday and into Saturday
evening. The low level forcing and isentropic lift with the cold
front will be decreasing Saturday and lowered probabilities to
low chance and slight chance. However, the upper shortwave
remain rather strong and with the amplifying upper trough these
chances may need to be increased. For now, the precipitation
looks to be over around or just after 06z Sunday, with the
surface cold front east to the forecast area. Strong cold
advection Saturday night will send temperatures to below
seasonal levels once again.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pressure builds into the region on Sunday with dry and
breezy conditions as the pressure gradient over the area remains
fairly tight. Although downsloping winds should offset some of
the cold air advection, high temperatures are still forecast to
fall short of normal highs by about 10 degrees. Winds subside
Sunday night as the ridge axis of high pressure shifts in. This
will allow temperatures to fall below freezing for many inland
locations and pine barrens region, with mid and upper 30s for
coastal sections.

The high moves offshore on Monday with a slightly moderating
airmass over the region. High temperatures will still be below
normals however. A warm front approaches Monday night, followed
by a cold front during Tuesday. These are associated with a low
pressure system moving through new england. Models haven't
really trended wetter for this time period, so will continue
with a dry forecast for now. The warm advection prior to the
cold front will at least allow for highs to reach near-normal
levels on Tuesday.

High pressure builds in behind this system, with dry weather
for Wednesday and Thursday. A return to below-normal
temperatures both days with Wednesday possibly being on the
breezy side. Models show high pressure holding on long enough to
go with a dry forecast for Friday as well.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure along the coast will settle to the south and east
through this evening. A cold front will approach late tonight into
Saturday morning, and should enter the area early Saturday
afternoon.

Gusts in SW flow have been very infrequent at most sites, so have
pushed onset forward into tonight for the most part, to when the
surface high should be farther offshore. Then expect gusts close to
25 kt at kjfk and either side of 20 kt elsewhere tonight, and even
then they could be more occasional at times or even drop off for a
time.

Moisture streaming in well ahead of the front should lead to a
period of light showers and MVFR conditions from about 11z-14z at
the nyc metros. It is possible the onset could be an hour or two
sooner than that.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi52 min WSW 16 G 21 57°F 55°F46°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi40 min SW 12 G 18 58°F 63°F1016 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi34 min WSW 14 G 19 59°F 63°F1016.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi67 min SW 18 G 23 60°F 66°F2 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi67 min SSW 16 G 21 59°F 1 ft42°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi52 min SSW 18 G 23 64°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi34 min SW 14 G 16 58°F 64°F1017.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi62 min SW 23 G 27 60°F 64°F5 ft1018 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi56 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F39°F55%1017.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi56 minSW 6 G 1510.00 miFair57°F41°F55%1017.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi60 minSW 1610.00 miFair59°F37°F46%1017 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY24 mi59 minSW 1010.00 miFair56°F39°F53%1017.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi59 minSW 910.00 miFair58°F41°F53%0 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW6W6SW5W4SW4CalmSW6CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W9W11--W9S10SW14SW14SW12SW10SW7SW10
1 day agoNW13NW18
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2 days agoSW5SW5W7W6W5--CalmW5W5CalmW4W7SW8SW11W11W11W14
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:24 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.20.91.22.13.24.55.66.265.24.231.81.11.21.934.25.56.36.35.64.6

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.31.11.62.745.26.26.56.15.242.81.81.31.52.43.756.16.66.45.64.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.