Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:25 PM EST (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:58PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1151 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
This afternoon..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of snow early, then chance of snow early. Snow late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sleet, snow, rain and freezing rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1151 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure impacts the waters this afternoon into Thursday morning. A cold front follows on Thursday afternoon with high pressure returning Thursday night through Saturday. Another low pressure system then impacts the waters Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201740
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1240 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A low pressure system will impact the region through tonight. A
cold front follows on Thursday with high pressure returning
Thursday night through Saturday. Another low pressure system
then impacts the region Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure builds back early next week.

Near term through tonight
With the precipitation, light snow, just moving into
southeastern pennsylvania at 14z have lowered the probabilities
of precipitation across the western zones, with low end chance
pops by 16z. Also, sky cover was increased to 100% into tonight.

Finally with the prolonged period of freezing rain across the
have increased the ice amounts across the western half of orange
county ny and into the extreme portion of western passaic county
nj. This better reflects the amounts that wpc is forecasting
for these areas.

Strong high pressure centered over new england and into suffolk
county ny will slowly move east and offshore into the atlantic
through the day.

Clouds continue to lower in advance of a warm front approaching
from the sw. Initially, the forecast soundings show drier air
from the surface through about 15kft. By around noon time
though, most of the atmospheric column becomes saturated with
some remaining dry air below 5kft.

The vertical forcing becomes more noticeable as 850-700 mb
frontogenesis increases and moves SW to NE across the region and
the atmospheric column will soon become fully saturated. This
will be in advance of a developing warm front that will have low
pressure starting to develop along it. The main parent low will
be moving into the great lakes and will be the more dominant
low. Models indicate consistent warming aloft at 700mb that will
coincide with the increasing precipitation developing and
moving across the region.

The snow will become more widespread this afternoon from SW to
ne and is expected to become a moderate steady snow. With the
antecedent environment, wet bulb cooling keeps the temperatures
below freezing and will allow for 1-4 inches of snow to
accumulate with potential for snow to be 1-2 inches higher than
forecast if snow becomes heavy for prolonged periods of time.

Short term Thursday
For tonight, the surface winds increase out of the sse to se,
allowing for coastal locations to warm up above freezing. First
locations to see this will be long island and then nyc, followed
by other coastal areas. The winds remain lighter for a longer
period of time farther inland. Winter weather advisory segmented
to mark the time difference with essex nj, union nj, hudson nj,
nyc, long island ending at 1am Thursday and the rest of the
region to the north ending at 6am Thursday.

Before temperatures rise above freezing even along the coast,
there is expected to be a time window for a wintry mix of
precipitation including sleet and freezing rain with
temperatures rising a few degrees c above freezing in the
850-700mb layer. Long island only expected to see a brief
period of this wintry mix with trace amounts of ice expected.

Hence, even eastern long island remains in the winter weather
advisory due to the ice forecast. Most coastal areas expected to
have a glaze with ice amounts under a tenth of an inch farther
inland with a longer period of freezing rain expected with
inland locations having lighter winds and having terrain block
the southerly flow.

Atmosphere starts to dry out above 700mb especially late tonight
into early Thursday so less ice nuclei would lead to those areas
with enough moisture to either have drizzle if temperatures are
above freezing or freezing drizzle if temperatures are at
freezing or below.

For temperatures, the highest temperatures will actually be
tonight with a non-diurnal trend. Temperatures slowly rise
tonight from mid 20s to lower 30s to lower 30s to lower 40s.

For Thursday, drier conditions are expected. Low pressure will
be moving east of the region into the vicinity of nova scotia
while strengthening a little. A cold front moves across during
the afternoon with high pressure then starting to build into
the local region from the west thereafter. A more westerly flow
develops with some gusts developing as well. A mid level
shortwave passes well north of the region with mid level flow
remaining nearly zonal. Expecting highs to be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s with just some weak cold air advection behind the
front.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
The cold front moves well offshore Thursday night with a more
seasonable airmass returning its wake. Temperatures will fall back
into the upper 20s inland and the lower 30s closer to the coast.

Deep layered ridging builds over the eastern states on Friday with a
surface high settling across the tri-state. Highs will be in the low
to middle 40s.

Upper heights continue to rise Friday night into Saturday ahead of
the next storm system. An upper shortwave trough digs into the
plains on Saturday spawning an intensifying low pressure that tracks
up into the great lakes Saturday night. The surface high over the
area will shift offshore with a return southerly developing. The
antecedent air mass may have marginal temperatures that any precip
initially across the interior could be a wintry mix. However, thermal
profiles are supportive of a mostly rain event Saturday night. There
is no high to the north and the model guidance continues to prog a
strong low (around 980 mb) tracking across the lakes into SE canada
Saturday night into Sunday.

A warm front likely approaches from the south Saturday night and
then lifts north Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Warm
advection precip breaks out Saturday night and continues into Sunday
morning. The trailing cold front should cross the region late Sunday
as the low lifts north of the region. Deepening on how far north of
the region the warm front gets, temperatures could rise into the
50s, especially for nyc and long island.

High pressure returns early next week with dry conditions and a
gradual return to near seasonable temperatures.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure approaches from the southwest and moves through the
area tonight into Thursday morning.

Generally ifr or lower expected as snow has developed across
nearly all of the airspace this afternoon. Precipitation will
change to a wintry mix, then to plain rain, from south to north
tonight. The one exception to this is kswf, where precipitation
may remain a wintry mix through the night, with a prolonged
period of freezing rain possible. While visibilities will begin
to improve once precipitation changes to all rain, ceilings will
remain ifr or lifr into Thursday morning before steadily improving
after daybreak.

Snowfall accumulations will range from 2-4 inches at
kewr kteb kjfk klga khpn kswf, 2-3 inches at kisp kbdr, and around
an inch at kgon.

Generally light winds will return out of the southeast this
afternoon. Winds then back to the east- southeast by late
afternoon early evening at around 10 kt before becoming light
and variable again overnight. Winds at inland terminals could
remain light and variable through the day today.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi44 min E 2.9 G 5.1 25°F 36°F1031.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi38 min SSE 1 G 1.9 26°F 37°F1032.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi38 min E 4.1 G 7 26°F 32°F1031.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi36 min ESE 16 G 18 32°F 40°F2 ft1030.6 hPa (-4.2)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi90 minE 50.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F25°F92%1032 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi90 minVar 31.50 miLight Snow28°F23°F81%1032.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi34 minENE 61.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F23°F85%1031.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi33 minE 80.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F25°F88%1030.7 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N3SW3CalmNW5CalmN5N6N6N3N6N6NE6NE6N6NE4N5NE6CalmSE3S5SE3E5E7
1 day agoNW15
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NW9NW12N13N14NW13NW8NW5NW5NW6N9NW10N10NW10NW10NW8NW10N11NW11
2 days agoS5SW5S5S6SE4CalmCalmN3NE5NE7NE5E7E7E9E5E6N3N5N7NW5NW8W18
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:29 AM EST     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:40 AM EST     7.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.15.83.91.80.1-1-10.22.14.36.37.57.76.84.92.80.7-0.8-1.4-0.70.935.26.8

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:17 AM EST     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:28 AM EST     7.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:55 PM EST     7.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.95.43.41.4-0.2-1.1-0.90.52.54.76.67.77.66.44.52.40.4-1-1.3-0.51.33.55.57

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.