Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:08PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:31 AM EDT (10:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:04PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 351 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 351 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front lifts through the waters late today into tonight. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage Monday night. High pressure will return for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190841
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
441 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
As high pressure continues out to sea today, a warm front will
lift through the area, followed by a cold front Monday evening.

High pressure will return for the middle of next week. A frontal
system may affect the region Friday night into Saturday.

Near term through tonight
Upper level ridge axis will shift to the east today with sfc
high pres continuing to depart further into the atlantic.

Meanwhile, WAA also continues with a warm front approaching from
the south, which should lift north of the area this aftn. Hrrr
and rap have been signaling some isolated shower development
between 6am and noon or so for the last several model cycles,
which is likely associated with the warm fropa, so have added in
low chance pops during this time for much of the tri-state area.

Would expect them to weaken as they encounter more subsidence
as they move east.

Otherwise, after mostly cloudy skies this morning associated
with the warm front, should see a fairly decent amount of
sunshine under partly cloudy skies. Humidity levels will start
to increase as well. A southerly flow and cloud cover lingering
a bit longer to the east will keep highs at the coast ranging
from mid 60s to lower 70s while further inland mid 70s to lower
80s will be common.

A trough of low pres will develop across central pa va this
aftn with moderate instability and wind shear profiles
suggesting the potential for organization of scattered strong
to severe convection into a qlcs type structure. Indications are
that this activity would not reach areas well NW of nyc until
early evening (5-6pm, possibly a few hours later). There will be
a quick drop off in surface instability east of the hudson
river, as well as waning diurnal instability overall in the
evening. So, there is potential for a convective line, with main
threat of strong to locally damaging wind gusts, to approach
areas west of the hudson in the early evening, but expectation
would be for this convection to transition to elevated as it
approaches the coast. Cant rule out isolated strong wind gusts
making it into the nyc nj metro and ct lower hud border sun
evening, but intensity of storms should continue to diminish
into the evening as the stable layer deepens.

This feature along with some weak mid level energy will
likely be enough to trigger TSTM development with moderate
instability present and bulk shear increasing during the aftn.

While there is limited forcing locally, some of these storms may
make it into western portions of the forecast area late this
afternoon into the early evening as the sfc trough slides east.

A few could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

However the maritime airmass will quickly weaken the storms as
they move east into nyc LI and southern ct.

Showers and embedded elevated tstms will likely continue
through at least the first half of the overnight with the trough
sliding through accompanied by weak mid level vorts and a
40-50kt llj. Otherwise, a very mild and relatively humid night.

Potential for advection stratus fog across coastal areas tonight
with high dewpoint airmass overriding lower to mid 50 degree
waters. Lows around 60 coast, and mid 60s nyc nj metro and n&w.

Short term Monday through Monday night
Closed low developing over southern quebec on Monday will
gradually move east sending a cold front towards the area.

Despite the potential for moderate instability shear profiles
away from the coast, most of the shortwave energy will pass to
the north of the area and will probably arrive too late in the
day for widespread severe weather. Height falls aren't very
impressive until eve and the upper jet is lagging as well. The
amount of cloud cover from a potential fog stratus bank is
another limiting factor, especially across eastern areas.

Thus, while there could be some storms with the cold fropa, do
not anticipate much in the way of severe weather late mon
aftn eve. A drier airmass returns in the wake of the front mon
night.

Humidity levels will be more noticeable on Monday and while
there is bust potential on forecast temps (due to cloud cover)
think we should break out for a bit almost everywhere which will
allow temps to rise into the lower to mid 80s in nyc and areas
n and W and upper 60s to mid 70s closer to the coast, coolest
east where clouds will likely hang on longer.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure builds in for Tuesday and into the middle of the
week. Dry weather conditions are expected with temperatures near
normal. Thursday through Saturday low rain chances are expected
as weak weather impulses impact the region with a thunderstorm
possible each afternoon. Temperatures will rise above normal
seasonal levels by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
The weather pattern features an approaching warm front today
which is forecast to move across late today into tonight.

MainlyVFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period but with
increasing chances of MVFR ifr late tonight. While not in the tafs,
isolated showers will be a possibility going into today with some
possible brief MVFR. There will be a round of rain showers that will
be greater coverage mainly during tonight. There will be a chance of
thunderstorms mainly during the early evening, highest to the north
and west of nyc terminals with just a slight chance of thunderstorms
to the east of nyc terminals.

Winds will be se-s 5-10 kts initially, then increasing to 10-15
kt this afternoon before slightly decreasing tonight. Expecting
gusts to develop late this morning and continue through the
early evening around 20 kt on average. Some llws will be
possible east of city terminals tonight with SW flow of around
40 kt at 2kft.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late tonight through Monday MVFR ifr possible at times,
with a chance of showers tstms. Patchy fog late tonight into
early Monday. S-sw gusts near 20 kt mainly during the day Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday A chance of MVFR ifr in showers and
thunderstorms east of nyc terminals Monday evening. Otherwise,
becomingVFR. Gusts subside Monday night. NW gusts near 25-30 kt
Tuesday. Gusts subside Tuesday night.

Wednesday MVFR possible. A slight chance of showers Wednesday
night.

Thursday MVFR possible. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Conditions mainly below SCA today but could have wind gusts approach
25 kt on the ocean and some nearshore waters. Felt frequency of 25
kt would just be occasional so left SCA to when the ocean seas would
be reaching 5 ft for tonight. Conditions mainly on the ocean will be
meeting minimal SCA thresholds tonight with wind gusts mainly 15-20
kt. SCA issued for tonight into Monday with SCA on the ocean
(earlier start time of 22z west of moriches inlet and later start
time of 02z east of moriches inlet) with a continued southerly fetch
that will increase on Monday again as southerly winds increase to 15-
20 kt with gusts up to around 25 kt. This will keep elevated seas on
the ocean. The SCA ends at 22z Monday but may need to get extended
with subsequent forecasts.

Winds subside Monday night but the higher seas on the ocean will
probably remain, meeting minimal SCA criteria. For non-ocean waters,
conditions forecast to remain below SCA tonight through Monday
night. Ocean seas subside more on Tuesday with a NW flow picking up
to around 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, making for potential SCA across
all the local waters for this timeframe.

Conditions are forecast to be mainly below SCA late Tuesday
night through Thursday.

Hydrology
Widespread hydrologic impacts are not expected through next
Friday.

Tides coastal flooding
Tides continue to run astronomically high due to a full moon.

There is a low probability for localized minor coastal flooding
for western portions of the south shore bays of long island and
southwest ct shorelines during Sunday evenings high tides.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Monday
for anz353-355.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Monday for anz350.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi37 min S 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 56°F1018.7 hPa
44069 17 mi61 min S 9.7 G 9.7 57°F 60°F52°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi37 min SSW 6 G 8 56°F 58°F1019.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi37 min SSW 6 G 6 57°F 58°F1019.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi41 min S 9.7 G 12 56°F 53°F2 ft1018.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi95 minS 710.00 miFair56°F51°F84%1018.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi95 minS 710.00 miFair54°F48°F80%1019 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi39 minS 510.00 miFair57°F51°F81%1019 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi38 minS 410.00 miFair54°F51°F90%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8SW10SW8SW15S11SW10SW10SW6SW7S3SW5SW6SW5CalmSW4SW4W5W4NW6N12N8N7N11N10
2 days agoW5W5W9NW63W8NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Jefferson
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Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     7.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     6.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.97.45.9420.2-0.8-0.70.3245.76.86.864.52.81.20.1-00.82.54.46.2

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:22 PM EDT     6.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:26 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.97.15.63.61.6-0-0.9-0.60.62.44.366.96.75.74.12.40.9-00.11.12.84.86.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.