Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:25AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 126 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
This afternoon..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms early, then chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 126 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the waters this evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 271633
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1233 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold frontal passage occurs this evening. A bermuda high sets
up Wednesday night. Then a frontal system passes north of the
region Thursday through Friday night. A cold front approaches
Saturday and moves across Sunday into Sunday night. The front
may linger south of the region early next week with otherwise
weak high pressure returning.

Near term through tonight
Potential for isolated strong to severe convection this
afternoon.

Best large scale lift is passing to the east of the area early
this afternoon with an upper jet and mid level short wave. The
forecast dilemma for this afternoon is with continued
destabilization of the airmass due to approach of the upper
trough, and whether it will be sufficient enough to offset
subsidence and drying low levels.

Have maintained scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with a pre-frontal
trough weak cold front. Deep-layer shear values of 50-60 kt and
moderate instability will support low-topped supercells.

Isolated thunderstorm wind damage and large hail are also a
possibility this afternoon, especially across the interior where
steeper low-level lapse rates will be present. The limiting
factor for large hail is that thunderstorms will be low-topped.

Cold front moves east of the area this evening with perhaps a
few showers or thunderstorms across eastern long island and
southeast connecticut, otherwise it will be another dry,
seasonably cool night.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today.

Short term Wednesday
Despite very steep low lvl lapse rates, subsidence should keep
the area dry. There could be some flat cumulus, however with
condensation pres deficits around 40, even this may be
difficult, especially away from any terrain enhancement. Despite
the cool airmass aloft, deep mixing will allow for highs to be
only a few degrees blw average. A blend of guidance was used for
this.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The jet lifts north of the region and stays north of the region
midweek going through much of the weekend. It starts to move farther
south into the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, before
lifting back north of the region early next week.

The mid and upper level flow transitions to more of a zonal flow mid
into late week and then transitions to more of a ridging pattern
going into the weekend. Shortwave approaches for second half of
weekend, presenting more of a trough pattern and SW flow aloft,
before returning to a quasi-zonal flow early next week.

High pressure moves off into the western atlantic, building
Wednesday night, and then slowly drifting farther out to sea through
Thursday night. Meanwhile, a warm front moves north of the great
lakes and into northern new england Thursday into Thursday night.

There is a trailing cold front to the west that looks to weaken
Thursday night before moving northward as a warm front Friday into
Friday night. A cold front from the west approaches Saturday and
moves across Sunday into Sunday night. Possibly this could get
delayed as shown by the ecmwf, hence the longer time window
stated for its passage.

The frontal boundary of the weakening cold front Thursday night into
Friday is forecast to be close enough to warrant a chance of a
shower or thunderstorm. The chance continues into Friday night. The
next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be this weekend.

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
forecast for early next week with frontal boundary possibly
lingering not too far away to the south of the region. Not
expecting a total washout as coverage is expected to be mainly
isolated to scattered. The showers and thunderstorms will be
driven by the diurnal heat and the instability that generates.

Temperatures start off near normal Wednesday night and Thursday but
then trend warmer for the rest of the forecast period. It will be
getting warmer and more humid. The temperatures will average about 3-
5 degrees above normal. Temperatures are forecast to be well
into the 80s Thursday through Monday with some locations in the
ny metro and northeast nj reaching near 90 for Friday and
Saturday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
MainlyVFR as a trough of low pressure passes across the
terminals late this afternoon and evening.

Light and variable winds will become s-sse 14-15z at 10 kt or
less. Speeds will increase in the afternoon to 10-15 kt with
direction gradually veering to the SW by late afternoon and
evening. Winds become w-wnw overnight 10 kt or less.

Showers with brief MVFR visibilities are possible at kgon
til 15z. A shower thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi43 min SSE 7 G 7 66°F 1014.7 hPa
44069 17 mi76 min SE 5.8 G 9.7 68°F 75°F65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi43 min S 6 G 6 66°F 70°F1015.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 59°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi43 min W 2.9 G 5.1 70°F 65°F1014.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi41 min SSW 9.7 G 12 69°F 70°F2 ft1014.7 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi95 minSE 510.00 miOvercast71°F59°F66%1015.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi95 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds69°F63°F81%1015.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi39 minS 410.00 miFair71°F57°F61%1015.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi3.6 hrsVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F57°F69%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14S12
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SW14SW10SW7SW8S8SW8SW4CalmSW3------CalmNW10NE7E5CalmS6SE5SE5
1 day agoSW11S12S11SW8SW9SW8SW7SW6SW5SW6SW6W9N12
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N4----CalmNW5NW7NW5NW6W12NW8S12
2 days agoNW14
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W12NW9W5SW5SW5SW5SW6W9NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3453S8S12

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:15 AM EDT     7.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     7.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.57.17.97.76.44.72.71-0.3-0.60.31.93.95.77.17.56.85.43.61.90.600.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:03 AM EDT     7.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:39 PM EDT     7.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:51 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.77.27.87.35.942.10.4-0.6-0.60.52.24.25.977.26.34.93.21.50.3-00.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.