Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lloyd Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday January 17, 2019 11:43 AM EST (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 928 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow in the evening, then light snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Light rain and light snow likely in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow. Freezing rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Sleet and freezing rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow and sleet in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 928 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure settles in just north of the region today. Low pressure and a weakening warm front passes through tonight into Friday morning, followed by high pressure briefly building in late Friday and Friday night. A strong frontal system and associated low pressure will impact the coastal waters Saturday night through Sunday night. High pressure then gradually builds in during Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lloyd Harbor, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.95, -73.49     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 171542
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1042 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure settles in just north of the region today. Low
pressure and a weakening warm front passes through tonight into
Friday morning, followed by high pressure briefly building in
late Friday and Friday night. A significant winter storm impacts
the region late Saturday into Sunday and will be followed by
arctic high pressure Monday into Tuesday. The next frontal
system approaches the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect
latest observations.

A strong polar high pressure system just north of the area will
be in control today providing dry and seasonably cold
conditions. Temperatures closer to the coast are expected to get
to, or near freezing. Temperatures inland and to the north will
only get into the upper 20s to around 30. Used a consensus
blend for today as there was general agreement amongst the
guidance with the best cold advection taking place during this
morning. Most of the numerical guidance is suggesting that
clouds begin to overspread the region from the wsw to the ene
during the early afternoon, with lowering clouds into the
evening. South and southwestern areas will be in and out of high
clouds this morning, otherwise lots of sunshine to start, and
then the clouds for the afternoon from a fast moving system
approaching from the tennessee valley.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
A weak and broad area of low pressure will approach tonight
along with some troughing aloft and shortwave energy. The energy
in the southern branch of the jet stream is quite strung out and
not all that impressive. The model consensus is for
precipitation to start during the late evening, give or take a
couple of hours from west to east. Not an impressive system with
some of the bufkit profiles showing some gaps in the moisture,
with the mid level forcing weak to say the least. Due to weak
omega, in general snowfall amounts will not exceed two inches,
and that may even be pushing it. Snowfall amounts on average
should be around an inch, with very little for far southeastern
sections, and up to about 2 inches in the hills in interior
northwestern sections. Pops and QPF have backed down a bit with
latest package, with QPF amounts generally around a tenth of an
inch. With ground temperatures quite cold anything that falls
should stick to most surfaces, even at the coast, at least to
start. The low level profiles begin to warm getting closer to
11-12z Friday across southeastern coastal sections where a
change to plain rain is likely towards daybreak, with a
changeover to plain rain across the city likely during the mid
to late morning just before the precipitation ends. Due to the
timing of the snow, it will be a bit slick in spots, especially
on secondary roadways to begin the Friday morning commute. If
the snow does have any difficulty sticking it will be due to a
lack of intensity, and not temperatures during the overnight.

The back edge of the precipitation should clear the city by the
late morning on Friday, and the early afternoon the latest
across far eastern sections, with clearing setting up for late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening as high pressure briefly
sets up shop. West winds will blow slightly stronger behind the
system, and can't rule out a few gusts far east late in the day
as the system attempts to intensify to some degree well
offshore. Temperatures for Friday afternoon will actually nudge
back to slightly above normal levels before the colder air
returns into Friday night.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The main concern in the long term is the significant winter storm
for late Saturday into Sunday. This storm will be followed by the
coldest air of the season. There is high confidence in a high liquid
equivalent event, but confidence in ptype is much lower.

Arctic high pressure will be located across southeast canada and
ridge down into new england on Saturday. At the same time, a
southern stream shortwave spawns low pressure across the southeast.

The southern stream is progged to remain progressive and positively
tilted with little phasing from the polar jet to the north. It
appears that the influence of the northern stream will not come into
play until the southern stream wave is near the east coast. This has
led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low
further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog dt
on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well
except the gfs GEFS which appear to be an outlier solution and
remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy
with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is
also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet
interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track
forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages.

Saturday will be dry through the afternoon then warm advection
quickly takes shape with snow overspreading the region in the
evening. The air mass in place at the onset will be supportive of
all snow. Strong warm advection and an increasing southeasterly low
level jet should bring in warmer air aloft to bring a transition
zone. How quickly this occurs will be important along the coast for
the amount of snow accumulation.

This warm nose aloft will gradually spread inland to encompass the
entire area Sunday morning. Even the colder model solutions still
show this warming aloft due to the broad middle level low center
tracking initially to our west Saturday night and then over the
region Sunday morning. Precipitation should transition to plain rain
for much of nyc, long island, and southeast connecticut late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Ptype for the rest of the area
may transition to sleet and or freezing rain depending on the depth
of the low level cold below the warm nose. The colder solutions of
the ECMWF and NAM out through 12z Sunday show potential for a
quite deep cold layer below the warm nose, which would mean more
sleet rather than freezing rain. It is too early to say for
sure how this aspect will evolve, so for now will show a mixture
of sleet and freezing rain for the interior Sunday morning.

Once the low tracks east of the area, colder air rapidly rushes
back in from the north and west and will bring a gradual
transition back to snow as the precip ends.

A significant snow and sleet accumulation of 6 plus inches appears
likely across portions of the NW interior. The 00z ECMWF eps
probability of 6 inches or more is around 80 percent across this
region. Amounts will decrease as one nears the coast with a few
inches possible, but this will ultimately be dependent on how
quickly the precipitation changes to a mix or rain. Significant
freezing rain accretion is also possible Sunday morning, especially
north and west of nyc. Please note that small changes in track will
have significant implications for the type of precipitation and
amounts.

While forecast amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain are of
lower confidence, there is higher confidence in a liquid equivalent
of 2 to 3 inches.

Temperatures rise into the upper 30s and low 40s along long island
and southeast connecticut Sunday morning, but will rapidly drop back
below freezing in the afternoon and evening, any standing water
could quickly freeze, creating hazardous travel conditions even
where little wintry precipitation occurs.

Temperatures will continue to plummet through the overnight hours,
with lows Monday morning ranging from the single digits to near 10
degrees. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills around 5
to 15 degrees below zero. The lowest wind chills are most likely to
occur across the interior.

The arctic air remains in place on Monday as high pressure builds
into the region. Highs will only be in the teens with wind chills
staying 0 to 10 below. Temperatures should warm into to the 20s and
low 30s on Tuesday and then potentially above normal on Wednesday
ahead of the next system approaching the area.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
High pressure gradually retreats into the canadian maritimes
through tonight, as a weak coastal low approaches from the mid
atlantic.

High confidence inVFR through the evening push, then light
snow and MVFR conditions developing w-e late this evening and
into the overnight. Ifr expected for at least a couple of hours
late tonight. Warmer air in the low levels will result in a
transition to a mix of snow and rain at coastal terminals near
the end of the TAF period, although there could be a few hours
of fzra fzdz at nyc LI terminals depending on how quickly
surface temperatures rise. Timing of this could be a few hours
off from current forecast.

Light winds (less than 10 kt) through the TAF period.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 5 mi89 min N 5.8 G 7.8 26°F 10°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi56 min NE 6 G 8.9 26°F 37°F1031.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 23 mi62 min NNE 6 G 8
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi56 min 28°F 40°F1030.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 37 mi56 min N 5.1 G 8.9 27°F 1031 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi56 min N 7 G 9.9 24°F 40°F1030.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 41 mi56 min 27°F 38°F1030.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi54 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 28°F 42°F2 ft1030.6 hPa15°F
MHRN6 42 mi56 min NE 6 G 8
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 43 mi56 min N 5.1 G 8 29°F 37°F1031.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 46 mi89 min N 7.8 G 12 25°F 40°F1 ft

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
-12
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
-12
PM
9
PM
-12
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
NW10
G13
NW11
G15
NW10
G17
NW10
G16
NW14
NW12
G16
NW12
G16
NW13
G16
N11
N12
G15
N15
G21
N16
N16
G21
N8
G11
N10
NE9
G12
NE6
G9
NE7
1 day
ago
N11
G14
NE6
G9
NE9
NE5
G8
E2
G5
S3
S2
S4
S4
S4
S5
S4
W9
W9
W8
G11
W9
W9
NW12
G17
2 days
ago
NE11
G14
NE6
NE1
--
NE7
G11
N8
G12
NE10
NE8
NE8
NE8
N5
G8
NE5
NE9
NE8
NE9
G13
N10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi48 minNNE 610.00 miFair25°F3°F40%1030 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi51 minNE 9 G 1410.00 miFair29°F10°F45%1030 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi1.8 hrsN 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F8°F45%1029.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY24 mi53 minENE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F8°F41%1030.3 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hr------W12
G17
W9W11
G17
W4--NW11--NW19
G26
NW14
G21
NW12NW14
G18
NW16
G20
NW15NW10NW11NW11NW5NW7N7NW6NE6
1 day agoNW11NW8NW10NW8NW7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--W6CalmW8N6NW8NW8W6W6
2 days agoNW46--NW9--N10NW6--N8N8NW10NW7NW9W6NW8W7N8N6NW10N14N11N13N9N12
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Lloyd Harbor, Huntington Bay, Long Island, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:16 AM EST     0.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:24 AM EST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:42 PM EST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:53 PM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.20.50.90.70.2-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.3-00.20.40.80.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.