Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lloyd Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday December 16, 2017 7:11 PM EST (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 648 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt this evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Scattered flurries this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain, snow and freezing rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 648 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves offshore tonight following by high pressure into Sunday. A series of weak frontal systems then move through the region Sunday night through midweek, before high pressure builds in for the late week. A frontal system approaches by the start of the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lloyd Harbor, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.49     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 162041 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
341 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
A cold front moves south of the area this evening and will be
followed by high pressure for Sunday. A series of weak frontal
systems then move through the region Sunday night through
midweek, before high pressure builds in for the late week. A
frontal system approaches by the start of the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Cold front resides across northern new england this afternoon,
and will continue to sink south through the evening hours as a
shortwave and associated vort MAX pass to our northeast.

Latest high resolution model data hints at some snow showers in
a banded structure moving south along the cold front this
evening. The front should be able to provide extra surface
convergence in combination with the passing energy to our
northeast. Will have to watch trends as the front nears as any
heavier burst of snow could put down a quick dusting. Do not
anticipate anything widespread, and have limited pop to slight
chance.

Clearing skies should follow overnight behind the front passage,
especially across the eastern half of the region. Lingering moisture
between 5 and 10 thousand feet may keep the western half of the
region at least partly cloudy. Lows will range from the teens
inland to the lower and middle 20s closer to the coast.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Another unseasonably chilly day is forecast on Sunday as high
pressure settles over the tri-state. Shortwave energy will fast
approach from the west on Sunday within zonal flow aloft. This
energy currently resides over mexico and will lift towards the
plains tonight and get caught in the zonal flow on Sunday. The
shortwave energy will dampen out as it approaches, but there will be
enough moisture to increase clouds through day. No precipitation is
expected with highs in the lower and middle 30s.

The main concern on Sunday night will be surrounding any
precipitation that develops with warm advection as the weakening
shortwave energy moves overhead. Models differ in whether there
will be any measurable precipitation due to overall weak lift.

There will be a warm front approaching, which may be just enough
along with the warm advection to produce light precipitation.

Temperatures profiles are questionable, but there are signals of
a warm nose developing around 900-950 mb Sunday night. This may
be able to change any snow to freezing rain or rain. Surface
temperatures away from the nyc metro and coast will likely
remain below 32 degrees, so will need to watch for any freezing
rain. For now, pops are capped at 30 percent and will show a
chance for snow inland and a mix of snow, freezing rain, or rain
near the coast. Any snow inland could change to a mix towards
day break as the warm nose attempts to advance north.

Long term Monday through Friday
Models continue in good agreement with a fairly progressive upper
pattern in place through the week, with a series of weak frontal
systems moving through the region Sunday night through midweek as a
muted northern stream longwave trough slides from the great lakes
into the northeast.

First system of note continues to be for Sunday night into Monday
morning as the closed low currently over NW mexico shears towards the
ne ahead of a developing western us trough. General agreement in
this energy being significantly weakened as it approaches the region
with limited moisture, but potential exists for a light precip event
Sunday night into Monday morning. Thermal profiles suggest a start
as snow or wintry mix, quickly transitioning to rain for nyc LI as
boundary layer sufficiently warms, but remaining a wintry mix to the
n and W of nyc LI into Monday morning with a subtle warm nose but
likely freezing surface temps. Although precip amounts are expected
to be light, potential exists for hazardous (icy) travel n&nw of
nyc LI for Monday morning commute.

Thereafter, models in fairly good agreement with the broad but
shallow northern stream trough approaching the NE on Tuesday and
sliding through during the midweek. At the surface, the primary low
pressure system rides through quebec ontario with trailing cold
front approaching the region tue, and crossing Tue night. Not
expecting much precip during this time period, due to best forcing
north of the region, and limited moisture being drawn north in split
flow. Thermal profiles suggests precip would be mainly liquid, but
if anything develops in the WAA pattern Monday night into tue
morning there would be a threat for freezing rain across interior as
cold air typically has a tough time scouring out in this setup.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold front
for wed. Upper flow flattens and even becomes a bit ridged for
Thursday ahead of the next northern stream trough digging into the
upper plains. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west
wed and across thu, with dry and seasonably cold conditions.

Models in general agreement with a pattern shift to a more
longitudinally oriented upper flow heading into the weekend, as
several pieces of northern stream energy begin to dig a deep
longwave trough into the western central us. This may bring the
coldest air of the season into the central us by around christmas.

Meanwhile, energy rounding this trough appears to send a frontal
system through the region during the Fri night-sat night time
period.

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
A cold frontal passage occurs this evening.

Ceilings around 3500 ft can generally be expected through the
taf period for the city terminals, coastal connecticut and long
island. To the north however, there is a higher probability for
ceilings to settle around 3000 ft for this afternoon and
evening. MVFR has therefore been forecast for those areas.

There is a slight chance for snow showers through approximately
00z. Vcsh have been included in the tafs, with coverage
expected to be mainly isolated at this time.

Winds in the 250-270 true range will veer to the northwest
behind the cold front tonight. The winds will continue to veer
to the north on Sunday.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Rest of Sunday Ifr possible overnight with snow or a light
wintry mix possible. Variable wind direction with speeds below
10 kt.

Monday Light rain possible along the coast in the morning,
with a light wintry mix possible elsewhere. BecomingVFR.

Westerly flow developing.

Tuesday Areas of MVFR possible with southwest flow.

Wednesday Vfr with northwest flow 20-25 kt.

Thursday Vfr with light winds becoming southerly.

Marine
Small craft advisory remains in effect on the near shore waters
until 7 pm as gusts 25 to 30 kt continue. The advisory remains
in effect on the ocean into the overnight as seas will remain
elevated. The winds will diminish overnight on the ocean, but
seas will remain elevated and may remain above 5 ft east of
moriches inlet through Sunday morning. Have extended the
advisory on those waters until 6 am Sunday. A weak pressure
gradient Sunday and Sunday night will lead to sub-sca
conditions.

Sub SCA conditions expected Monday into Monday night with a weak
pressure gradient over the region.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be late Tuesday Tue eve in
sw flow ahead of approaching cold front, with high likelihood of
widespread SCA Tuesday night through Wednesday with tight pressure
gradient and strong CAA in wake of cold front. Marginal gale gusts
are possible during this time frame.

Conditions then should fall back below SCA heading into Thu as high
pressure builds towards the waters.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz353-355.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz350.

Synopsis... Ds nv
near term... Ds
short term... Ds
long term... Nv
aviation... 12
marine... Ds nv
hydrology... Ds nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 13 mi41 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 39°F 26°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi41 min N 9.9 G 12 39°F 40°F1019.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 23 mi41 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 35°F 44°F1018.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi41 min 39°F 45°F1019.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 37 mi41 min WSW 11 G 13 40°F 1019.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi41 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 42°F1018.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 41 mi41 min 38°F 44°F1018.6 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi41 min WSW 9.9 G 14
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi81 min WSW 21 G 25 43°F 51°F4 ft1017.2 hPa (+1.9)29°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 43 mi41 min W 14 G 17 40°F 36°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW4
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W1
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NW17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi15 minNW 810.00 miOvercast34°F25°F70%1019.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi18 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast38°F25°F60%1019.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi15 minWNW 79.00 miLight Snow37°F26°F65%1019.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY24 mi20 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast40°F25°F55%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4W8W4W5W3W3W7W5W5SW5SW34SW74W10
G17
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W9W9NW8
1 day agoNW21
G25
NW11W9W12
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NW13NW10W8NW9NW10NW5NW4NW3CalmSW4W33SW4CalmNE3CalmCalmW3W4W4
2 days agoW11
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3CalmCalmNE3NE3N7N7N8N6N6NW6NW12NW15
G20
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W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Lloyd Harbor, Huntington Bay, Long Island, New York
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Lloyd Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:43 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EST     7.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:13 PM EST     6.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.531.50.50.31.12.54.367.27.56.85.53.82.10.6-0.201.12.74.566.76.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:51 AM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:14 AM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:45 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 PM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:49 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:39 PM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.10.20.70.90.60.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.510.80.40.2-0-0.4-0.7-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.