Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:28 PM   Moonset 3:30 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers late this evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in place through Monday. The high gradually slides farther out into the atlantic through midweek. A frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday night. The associated cold front approaches Thursday and moves across Thursday night.

FXUS61 KOKX 190311 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1111 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A couple of upper troughs will be in the vicinity through tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will be in place through Monday. The high gradually slides farther out into the Atlantic through midweek. A frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday night. The associated cold front approaches Thursday and moves across Thursday night. Brief weak high pressure returns towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Forecast on track with just some slight adjustments to the forecast database. Showers continue to gradually dissipate in coverage throughout this evening. Any rain will remain light.
Patchy fog will be present especially in locations that received rain with visibilities generally ranging from 1 to 5 miles.

High pressure will slowly build into the region from the northeast tonight. At the same time, a couple of shortwaves will be nearby, triggering some showers for parts of the forecast area, primarily into the evening hours. After midnight, looks like any chance of additional showers will be east of the city with a mid-level shortwave still nearby. Low temperatures a few degrees above normal with plenty of cloud cover around.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure along the new England coast remains in control during this time. A lingering shower still possible for eastern zones in the morning, and although another shortwave may arrive here during the afternoon, moisture will be more shallow. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions in the morning, then probably at little less in the way of clouds during the afternoon. Highs near normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heights rise aloft Sunday night into Monday. It could start out mostly cloudy in the morning for coastal areas, but anticipating mostly sunny conditions across the entire area during the afternoon. Based on mixing up to around 925mb, deterministic NBM looked reasonable for high temperatures. Highs ranging from near 80 for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley, to the mid 60s for eastern LI and the SE coast of CT, which will have cooling onshore winds during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Large scale numerical weather prediction models convey the upper level jet as weak across the local region early into midweek. Then, jet stream level winds increase as a quasi-zonal jet streak moves into the area Thursday into Friday before shifting northeast of the region next Saturday.

At the surface, high pressure moves farther offshore early into midweek. 850mb temperatures are warming during this time period.
Synoptic pattern will be favoring low level warm air advection with more SW to W flow. Dry conditions are forecast Monday night through Wednesday.

Low pressure weakens and moves north of the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Its associated cold front approaches the local region from the west. The cold front moves across the local region Thursday night. Shower and convective activity is forecast to decrease in coverage as the front moves farther east.
There is forecast of the potential showers and thunderstorms, slight chance Wednesday night into early Thursday, higher chance Thursday into Thursday night. Higher instability is forecast across the interior and less to the east across the more marine low level environment Thursday into Thursday evening. Therefore, locations near NYC and to the north and west will have the higher chances of seeing any rain showers and thunderstorms. 850mb temperatures do not change as much between Wednesday and Thursday.

The local region will then be in between two low pressure systems for Friday and Saturday of next week. The ECMWF recently trended farther south and weaker with a wave of low pressure for next Saturday. There is uncertainty in this timeframe and some fluctuations of the low positions and thereby some rain potential for the local area are possible with subsequent forecasts. Forecast currently has slight chance of rain showers for much of the region but some areas forecast to have relatively higher chance late Friday night and Saturday but only between 25 and 30 percent.

Surface high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower 80s for a majority of the region Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Relatively cooler high temperatures are forecast along the immediate shore and the Twin Forks of Long Island, more within the 60s. High temperatures are forecast to trend downward slightly for Friday (more in the 70 to 80 range) and next Saturday (mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s).

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains along the northeast coast and into the mid Atlantic through Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a weakening upper level trough dissipates late tonight.

Conditions remained varied across the region, with mainly VFR/MVFR conditions, however there are some pockets of IFR conditions around the area. Generally looking at MVFR/IFR overnight tonight. Also, light rain/drizzle is gradually dissipating, but may continue through 06z, especially east of NYC. Can not rule out some patchy fog late tonight. Conditions will gradually improve during the day Sunday with a return to VFR for many of the terminals by 18z. Moderate confidence in the forecast, with timing uncertainties with changing flight categories as ceilings lowering and rise.

Winds generally remain 10kt or less mainly from the northeast, Winds become more E late.

..NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of flight category changes through Sunday morning may be off by an hour or two. Amendments possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night...MVFR.

Monday...MVFR early morning, then VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions currently anticipated across all local waters through the middle of next week. However, with an approaching cold front Wednesday into early Thursday and its passage Thursday night, wind gusts will be reaching around 20 kt. Ocean seas forecast will be in the 3 to 4 ft range.
Conditions could trend more rough in subsequent marine forecasts with higher ocean seas and higher wind gusts. Therefore would not rule the possibility of SCA conditions in this time period of Wednesday through Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Lloyd Harbor, Huntington Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Sat -- 02:32 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
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