Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Arthur Estates, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:59PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:40 PM EST (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:201902171515;;065135 Fzus51 Kcle 170852 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 352 Am Est Sun Feb 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-171515- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 352 Am Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow early this afternoon. Snow late. Waves in ice free areas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow and freezing drizzle. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Snow and freezing drizzle likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ148


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Arthur Estates, PA
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location: 40.95, -80.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 180028 aac
afdpbz
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service pittsburgh pa
728 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
A wintry mix of precipitation can be expected through tonight
with passing low pressure. Snow showers will linger on Monday,
and then a dry and seasonably cold Tuesday is expected under
high pressure.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Extended the wsw until 1am for much of the area, as freezing
drizzle is developing behind the main precipitation field. Pops
have been updated accordingly with current radar trends and
hires model guidance.

Previous discussion...

a typically challenging precipitation type forecast dominates
for tonight. Mid-level dry air is still slated to arrive
tonight, which will remove much of the ice nuclei and raise the
potential of drizzle freezing drizzle. Have kept this in the
grids after midnight. An extension expansion of the advisory for
this threat is also a possibility. Coverage of more substantial
showers will slowly decrease toward morning.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday
Scattered northwest flow snow showers will continue into Monday
afternoon for much of the region, perhaps into the evening
hours along the southeast ridges. Modest snow totals of an inch
or less are foreseen for now given fairly meager moisture in the
dendritic growth layer and low inversion heights. However, some
decent lapse rates are indicated below these inversions, so the
possibility of a few heavier snow showers will need to be
considered.

Advancing high pressure will cut off the snow showers, and
clouds will decrease through Monday night. Some sunshine is
anticipated Tuesday, before mid and high clouds begin to
increase later in the day. Temperatures through this period will
run a bit below seasonal norms.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Another messy system will move into the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday and Wednesday night. Many places will likely see
both some minor snow and freezing rain accumulation. This storm
is already mentioned in the hwo. Model solutions waver on what
will happen with the next system. Right now the ECMWF and gfs
both show a system that should remain to the south of the region
Thursday and Friday, but the GEFS keeps this storm a bit
farther to the north. Have hedged with chance pops across the
southeast and slight chance pops for most other locations. The
next storm system begins to wrap itself together by Sunday
morning, moving across michigan and continuing on to the
northeast. Considering the storm track, precipitation should
generally be rain by day and snow by night. Temperatures will be
slightly above normal through the period.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Conditions will deteriorate to ifr areawide, with potential for
lifr CIGS mixed in as a sfc low passes over the region. Given
current sfc temps and the lack of notable warming overnight,
added freezing drizzle for most sights until the sfc cold front
moves through and makes the boundary layer too turbulent for
drizzle.

Conditions will slowly improve after this frontal passage
through the rest of the day Monday. However, the switch to nw
flow will aid the development of lake enhanced snow showers
which will reinforce lower ceilings and create brief periods of
lower visibilities. These factors will likely keep MVFR
conditions in the area the entire day.

Outlook
Brief period ofVFR expected with high pressure Tuesday before
the next low pressure system reintroduces pcpn and widespread
restrictions Wednesday.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for mdz001.

Oh... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for ohz039>041-
048>050-057>059.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for paz007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-073-074-076.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for wvz001>003-
514.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 74 mi41 min ENE 21 G 25 26°F 1008.8 hPa (-1.7)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 82 mi53 min ENE 20 G 24 28°F 33°F1008.4 hPa28°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA15 mi45 minE 33.00 miLight Freezing Rain Fog/Mist31°F28°F92%1009.3 hPa
Beaver County Airport, PA16 mi3.9 hrsNNE 64.00 miUnknown Precip30°F30°F100%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from UCP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NE3N4NE4CalmE6CalmNE3NE4NE4NE5--E8NE9SE7E6E10E8NE5NE8E7E75E3
1 day agoW8
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N9NW8NW6N7NW6N5NW4N7NE7N66N6NW6N7N8N4N5NE6
2 days agoCalm3S75S4SW8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.