Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 2:56 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 355 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog this evening, then areas of dense fog after midnight. Widespread dense fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Light and variable winds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 190013 AAB AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 813 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening, with areas of fog overnight. High pressure will provide mainly dry weather from Sunday into early next week, with a warming trend in temperature.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated showers and storms will end this evening.
- Areas of fog, possibly dense locally, will develop overnight.
_____________________________________________________________

Evening Update... Showers with the occasional lightning strike remain isolated this evening, primarily north of Dubois and farther west in central/eastern Ohio. A few showers have also been noted in the Ridges. Loss of heating after sunset should collapse and dissipate any remaining storms, leaving most of the region clear overnight. This, combined with light wind and persistent low-level moisture will allow areas of fog to develop early Sunday morning.

Previous Discussion...
The axis of an upper trough currently lies through western PA southwestward to the Middle Ohio Valley, with a slowly filling upper low swirl clearly visible in northern Ohio on water vapor imagery.

Showers to this point remain quite isolated in most cases, with the bulk of the activity along the ridges. Latest PIT ACARS sounding shows 1100 J/kg of CAPE available with no cap, although moisture drops off significantly above 650mb or so.
With very little flow and forcing in the trough, it appears that shower and thunderstorm activity west of the ridges will remain widely scattered/isolated at best, and CAMs continue to advertise this thinking as well. Also, with precipitable water slowly dropping off (now 0.93 on that ACARS sounding), any threat of very localized heavy rain will be driven mainly by the slow steering flow as opposed to efficient rain processes.
Mesoanalysis plots show the best downdraft CAPE, in the 700-800 J/kg range, across the western CWA With some dry air aloft, gusty downburst wind cannot be totally ruled out in a strong storm.

The trough will continue to slowly sag south and east through tonight, eventually to be replaced by upper ridging nosing in from the Ohio Valley. Any showers/storms will collapse during the evening with the loss of heating. Convective cloud will also dissipate, leaving most of the region with a mostly clear overnight period. That, plus the light wind and the lingering low-level moisture/wet ground, will likely lead to areas of fog overnight into Sunday morning, and it would not be a surprise if it was locally dense in spots. Overnight low temperatures, mainly in the 50s, will remain near to slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Outside of isolated afternoon showers in the ridges on Sunday, dry weather can be expected through Monday night.
- Temperatures will climb some 10 degrees above normal by Monday.
_____________________________________________________________

Upper ridging builds overhead on Sunday, with its axis oriented from the middle Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Dry weather is still forecast for the majority of the region. However, hi-res models continue to depict isolated showers along the PA/WV ridges, where subsidence may be a bit weaker and where low-level easterly flow may aid development. Any such activity should end with the loss of daytime heating Sunday evening. Higher heights and increased sunshine should add roughly five degrees to afternoon highs as compared to today.

The ridge then dominates our weather Sunday night through Monday night, with the axis passing through during the daylight hours. Dry weather and temperatures some 10 degrees above normal can be expected, with most non-ridge locations reaching the lower to mid 80s on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quite warm Tuesday.
- Rain chances return for Wednesday and Thursday, with some potential for strong thunderstorms.
- Seasonable temperatures and lower rain chances are expected Friday and Saturday.
____________________________________________________________

Dry weather continues into Tuesday night as the upper ridge slowly works off of the Atlantic Seaboard. Plenty of sunshine and another day of drying will help add a degree or two to Monday's highs, pushing values further into the 80s.

The models continue to show some differences with the strength and timing of the next trough crossing the Plains into the Great Lakes, which will likely have the most impact on the Wednesday and Thursday forecast. GFS/GEFS seem to prefer a faster/stronger wave, which could bring precipitation back sooner than the overall grand ensemble solution, while the ENS leans towards a bit more shallow trough. In any case, good precipitation chances continue to favor the Wednesday through Thursday period. We will continue to watch for the potential for severe weather as the midweek period approaches, as CIPS/CSU severe guidance showing some potential, particularly on Wednesday. Well above-normal temperatures Wednesday may be knocked back closer to climatology by Thursday due to a cold frontal passage.

Model divergence increases further for Friday and Saturday, but additional, smaller shortwaves may provide lower-end chances for rain, with temperatures not straying far from climatology.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Rapid decrease in convective coverage is underway, with clearing sky likely for the remainder of the evening as wind slackens and radiational cooling ensues. Widespread restrictions in fog are possible overnight as a result. There is moderate (40-70%)
confidence in MVFR-IFR vsby restrictions late tonight, with lowest vsby likely from 19/08-19/12 UTC. FKL/DUJ have a low to moderate (20-40%) probability of LIFR vsby.

Ridging builds on Sunday and VFR returns with high confidence after mixing dissipates the fog and erodes any lingering scattered cloud deck in the morning. Wind will again be light during the day with a weak pressure gradient in place.

Outlook
VFR and dry weather with high confidence are expected Monday and Tuesday under the influence of high pressure. Precipitation chances and associated restrictions return Wednesday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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