Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 1:56 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 331 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds less than 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 170734 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 334 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather returns today through Saturday with periodic showers and a few thunderstorms. Near to above normal temperatures will continue.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers return with the passage of a weak upper trough.

- Near-normal high temperatures and above-normal low temperatures can be expected.
_____________________________________________________________

A weak trough crosses the region today with a very weak to nearly nonexistent surface low reflection. Upper jet support will be fading as the wave rotates across the eastern lakes.
HRRR mean instability progs generally keep CAPE at 750 J/kg or less. While 0-6km bulk shear of 35-40 knots is possible, suggesting storm organization, the severe threat still appears low, with CSU machine- learning guidance in agreement. Localized heavy rainfall does appear to be possible with near- saturated model soundings and precipitable water values of around 1.4 inches progged, which is essentially at the top end of the climatology. That said, NBM QPF expectations are not excessive, with 24-hour probabilities of 0.50 inch or greater through 8 AM Saturday in the 30-50 percent range, and chances of an inch under 15 percent.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower chances continue along with above normal temperatures.
_______________________________________________

Upper troughing still transitioning across the region will maintain shower chances on Saturday. Favored left entrance region jet dynamics lie closer south and east of PGH, so have maintained higher PoPs across the southern CWA Again, NBM 24-hour half- inch probabilities remain below 50 percent with the same north- to- south gradient. Severe threat remains very low as well.

Diurnal temperature spreads will be fairly low given the expected clouds and rain, with near-normal maximums but above-normal minimums.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Ridging should result in dry and warmer weather Sunday and into next week.
- Rain chances return for Wednesday and Thursday.
____________________________________________________________

The earlier trend towards a more southerly track for the main shortwave trough on Sunday continues in the recent guidance. This does lead to generally low PoPs on that day, focused on areas south of Pittsburgh where moist easterly flow lingers during the morning.

Ensembles then seem to be in decent agreement in keeping this trough/upper low near or just off the southeast CONUS coast, while slowly rising 500mb heights take control over the Upper Ohio Valley.
This points to mainly dry weather from Sunday night through Tuesday, with increasingly above-normal temperatures through early next week.

The next shortwave trough then drives across the Upper Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes during the midweek period. Model cluster guidance shows strength and timing differences with this, which point to various scenarios for precipitation amounts and severe weather chances. In any case, PoPs topping in in the likely range and muted, but still warm high temperatures looks to be the forecast of least regret at this time.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The 06Z update suggests a slowing trend of cig falls early this morning, with the most pronounced drops in cigs most likely to arrive with the precipitation onset. Morning guidance suggests that most regions drop to low VFR or high MVFR in morning showers, though temporary drops in heavier showers are possible and denoted in tempo groups. Some cig recovery is expected into the day save FKL and DUJ.

Rain coverage should taper off and become more isolated/scattered Friday afternoon, though the chance for lightning will increase. For now, will continue to run with PROB30 TSRA for the afternoon hours given lower spatial confidence of impacts.

MVFR cig restrictions will favor FKL/DUJ after 18z, with probabilities increasing areawide after 06z Saturday.

Outlook
Upper trough passage to the south Saturday will maintain shra/tstm chances focused south of KPIT, with varying degrees of restriction potential.

VFR and dry weather become high probabilities Sunday into Monday under the influence of high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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