Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Hopatcong, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:36PM Monday June 26, 2017 11:37 PM EDT (03:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:22AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1048 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1048 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface trough was inland of the forecast waters with high pressure across the water. This high builds farther offshore overnight as a cold front approaches from the great lakes. The front moves through the waters Tuesday evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hopatcong , NJ
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location: 40.96, -74.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 270254
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1054 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

A weak cold frontal passage occurs overnight and early Tuesday. High
pressure will follow into the mid atlantic states later Tuesday and
Wednesday. This high anchors offshore during the end of this week.

Eventually, a cold front should cross all of the mid atlantic
states late Sunday or Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Some showers have developed to the west of the area this evening
and are moving towards the northeast. Have added a chance of
showers with some isolated thunder for the remainder of the
evening for areas to the north and west of the i-95 corridor.

The models are showing additional precipitation developing
overnight into Tuesday morning as a weak shortwave rotates
through our area. Not confident in the second round of showers
and keep the forecast primarily dry after midnight through

Overnight temperatures look to be rather cool as the shortwave
trough lowers heights thicknesses across the region. Forecast lows
are around 50 in the southern poconos, in the middle to upper 50s in
more rural locations elsewhere, and in the lower 60s on the coast
and in the urban corridor.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The vort MAX in western new york at 12z Tuesday pivots northeastward
during the day, with a northeast-to-southwest oriented lobe of
higher vorticity approaching the mid-atlantic region during the
afternoon. There will be an attendant surface trough moving through
the area during the day. Weak convergence along the associated
boundary during peak heating may initiate a spotty shower or storm
during the day, but guidance looks fairly tame in producing much
precipitation across the area. Nevertheless, the addition of large-
scale ascent in advance of the trough and the rather cold midlevels
suggest that instability may be sufficient to initiate a few storms.

As such, I felt that guidance was a little too tame with
precipitation prospects tomorrow, especially north of the mason-
dixon line (in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent).

Kept pops on the higher side of consensus (which still keeps it at
slight chance or chance). The 12z NAM looks too dry, whereas the 12z
rgem seems a more reasonable outcome with the stronger large-scale
lift in play. Used a blend of 12z GFS rgem WRF guidance as a
starting point tomorrow for wx pops, but confidence is pretty low
given that the strongest dynamics are well to the north of the area.

One limiting factor appears to be the somewhat limited vertical
extent of conditional instability parcel buoyancy (upper levels cool
rather slowly, and the boundary layer is relatively dry), which will
prevent CAPE from becoming too substantial across the region
(generally well below 500 j kg across the region).

Forecast temps are a blend of mav met and continuity, with highs
expected to be a little cooler than today owing to increased cloud
cover and the closer proximity of the passing vort max.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
1. Heat index values near 100 possible for the urban corridor
Friday and Saturday.

2. Highest chance of thunderstorms right now centered on later
Saturday into Sunday with more uncertainty regarding any strong to
severe storms.

Tuesday night through Thursday night:
high pressure will be moving across eastward across our region
in this timeframe. This will begin a warming trend across the
region as winds become southwesterly on the backside of the
high. Humidity will slowly start to increase as well after one
last refreshing day Wednesday. Wednesday looking at bufkit
soundings look to be fairly favorable for mixing which may
lower rh values more than what model guidance has at this point.

Soundings also show an increasing potential for wind gusts near
20 mph on Thursday.

Friday through Saturday:
this period largely diverts from blended model and ensemble
guidance outside of the ECMWF suite. It appears the GFS is
overdeveloping convection given the overall set-up below and
normal biases for pattern progression that can be to quick.

Mid-level ridging will continue along the east coast in this
timeframe. As a result, an approaching cold front will be kept to
the northwest. With development of a cap marked by several hundred
j kg of CIN and 700 mb temps modeled near 9c it will be hard to
develop any thunderstorms across the region with the front still
well to our northwest. The higher terrain northwest of the i-95
fall line may be able to overcome this enough for an isolated
thunderstorm or two to fire with peak heating.

The main story will be the increasing heat and humidity. Looking at
the modeled temperatures at 850 and 925, low to mid 90's are
entirely possible across the urban corridor both days with
slightly cooler temperatures elsewhere. A continued increase in
humidity will keep lows from falling much below the low and mid
70's at night in spots. Heat index values near 100 are
possible as well. Be prepared to drink plenty of water, wear
light weight and loose clothing along with having a plan to
spend time in air-conditioning this weekend to beat the heat.

Due to some uncertainties with thunderstorm coverage, frontal
timing and the region more accustomed to heat will leave this
out of the hwo for now. Wind gusts from the southwest near 20
mph are currently expected for both afternoons as well.

Saturday night through Monday:
the cold front mentioned in the Friday-Saturday timeframe will
continue to push southeast into the region eroding any cap along
with acting as a trigger for higher coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. Heavy downpours will be
possible with thunderstorms due to the very moist airmass
expected to be in place. While instability looks sufficient for
thunderstorms, the amount of shear currently modeled is limited
for any widespread strong to severe storms at this time. The
front is likely to dissipate by Monday leading to a typical
summertime set-up with isolated pop-up thunderstorms.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MainlyVFR conditions are expected through this evening and
through the overnight period. Some showers are tracking
northeastward through central pennsylvania and there is a
mention for some showers through 04z at krdg and kabe. A brief
drop in visibility and ceilings may occur with these showers but
expect conditions to remainVFR. Winds have lightened up this
evening and will remain light and variable through the night.

Vfr conditions will prevail for Tuesday. A chance for some
showers and thunderstorms exists but confidence with respect to
timing and location is too low to include in the current taf.

Winds will pick up Tuesday afternoon out of the west around 10
to 12 knots with gusts up around 20 knots. Winds will start to
subside a bit later in the day.


Tuesday night through Thursday:VFR. West wind 10 knots or less
through Wednesday shifting to southeast from 10-15 knots on
Thursday with gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Saturday: mainlyVFR. Southerly winds 10-15
knots on average. Any isolated thunderstorm may briefly lower
celings and visibilities later Friday and Saturday during the
late afternoon and evening. Gusts around 20 knots in the

Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
primarily be in the southwest quadrant, with speeds generally 5 to
15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts or so. There is a slight
chance of storms tomorrow, especially in the delaware coastal
waters, as a low develops offshore and a weak surface trough moves
through the region during the day. Coverage of any precipitation
should be sparse at best.


seas are likely to increase to around or just over five feet with
southerly flow sometime on Thursday. These may continue into
Saturday. Otherwise, seas under five feet. Some wind gusts
around 25 knots are currently likely from the southerly flow
late Thursday through Saturday.

Rip currents
The forecast conditions through this evening should result in a
low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

There is a nationwide network outage affecting the national
weather service point and click webpages. It support is working
to correct the issue.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Drag gaines 1053
near term... Cms meola
short term... Cms
long term... Gaines
aviation... Cms gaines meola
marine... Cms gaines

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 32 mi50 min SSW 6 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi50 min 72°F 71°F1015.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi50 min SSW 11 G 12 1015.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi50 min 71°F 68°F1015.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 46 mi50 min S 6 G 8 68°F 65°F1015.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 47 mi50 min SW 7 G 8 72°F 74°F1014.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi53 min S 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 61°F

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ8 mi44 minN 0 mi59°F52°F78%1015.5 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ15 mi63 minN 010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity59°F53°F82%1015.6 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ17 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1015.5 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ18 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair68°F50°F53%1015.9 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ23 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
Last 24hr4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalm34W54SW5SW7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW83SW9
2 days ago3S5S53SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW54N7NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Passaic, Passaic River, New Jersey
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Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:13 PM EDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for East Rutherford, Passaic River, New Jersey
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East Rutherford
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Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     6.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:20 PM EDT     7.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.