Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hopatcong, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:23PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:41 PM EDT (16:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:35AMMoonset 10:31PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1011 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming E 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely...mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon...then 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1011 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will move east across the waters today. Low pressure will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low pressure system may impact the waters Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hopatcong , NJ
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location: 40.96, -74.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 301318
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
918 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today. Low pressure moving
through the ohio valley on Friday will redevelop near the new
jersey coast Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. Canadian
high pressure will move into the area for Sunday and Monday.

Low pressure over the ohio valley on Tuesday will move through
the middle atlantic Tuesday night and offshore on Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Forecast on track, so will only make minor adjustments to hourly
grids based on latest surface obs.

High pressure remains just south of hudson's bay, centered over
nw quebec, and ridging southward down the eastern side of the
appalachians and into the mid atlantic, characteristic of a
cold-air damming (cad) pattern. Meanwhile, a 1000 mb surface low
was positioned over eastern ks. The low will track eastward
into the midwest today.

Expect precipitation to hold off during the period with low
pressure still distant to our west and downstream ridge building
occurring over the eastern seaboard. Mid and high level clouds
are expected to overspread the area throughout the day. Based on
latest nam/gfs rh cross-sections, trended faster with the
arrival of the denser cloud cover than previous forecast,
yielding mostly cloudy skies late this morning in our far
western zones, first half of the afternoon for de valley and
late in the afternoon toward the coast.

Forecast high temperatures today about 4-8f lower than what was
observed yesterday, which is near climo for the end of march.

Favored the warmer mav solution with models exhibiting a slight
cool bias in recent days although we did not want to go much
warmer with clouds increasing during peak heating.

Light north-northeasterly winds 5-15 mph early this morning
will veer out the east late this morning and then south-
southeast this afternoon as the ridge axis progresses gradually
eastward and just off the northern mid-atlantic coast.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday/
Low pressure will continue its track eastward tonight along a warm
front positioned over the midwest. The nose of a southerly low-level
jet ahead of this system will be positioned over the mid atlantic
tonight. Forcing for ascent over the region will predominately be
provided by isentropic lift as warm, moist air overruns the low-
level baroclinic zone situated over the ohio valley-delmarva. Pops
increase from NW to SE this eve. Did not ramp up pops quite as fast
as I would normally like to in this close to the event due to some
notable timing differences with respect to onset of precip this eve.

Did have enough confidence to increase to pops to likely for
southern poconos this evening and then eventually the remainder of
the CWA overnight. QPF amounts will generally be light tonight
(under one-quarter inch) with the deeper/stronger lift still
upstream of the region.

Despite the center of the high retreating to our northeast, cad
wedge will be reinforced in-situ owing to the effect of evaporative
cooling when precip initially falls into an relatively dry boundary
layer. Temperatures were populated using a blend with much of the
weighting from the NAM 12km/nam 3km nest as this model has shown to
handle complex thermal profiles in cad setups like this. Freezing
rain is likely overnight tonight in the mountains of carbon and
monroe counties in pa and sussex county, nj as temperatures fall
into the lower 30s. Held off on issuing a late second period
freezing rain advisory since areal coverage looks to be limited to
the highest elevations (approximately above 1300 ft). However,
places like mount pocono and high point may see a few hundredths of
an inch of ice accretion late tonight, especially on elevated
surfaces such as trees and wires.

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/
The primary players during the long term continue to be two southern
stream systems that are expected to impact our region in the Friday-
Saturday and Monday-Tuesday time frames.

The first system will produce a wide swath of rainfall across the
region, with localized amounts in excess of 1.5 inches, especially
across the i-95 corridor. While urban and poor drainage flooding are
possible, and have been mentioned in the hwo, we do not expect major
impacts on rivers and streams.

Freezing rain looks to persist into at least the morning on
Friday along the higher elevations of carbon, monroe and sussex
(nj) counties. Currently, our weather grids indicate a change
over to just plain rain with temperatures rising above freezing
in these high elevations by the afternoon. However, some of the
colder model solutions indicate the potential for freezing rain
to persist into Friday afternoon and perhaps Friday night. The
latest storm total ice graphic was populating running the fram
off our forecast database and represented an increase in the
icing amounts ranging from a few hundredths of an inch in these
counties at around 1000 ft in elevation to almost a quarter inch
at above 1800 ft in elevation (isolated areas in monroe
county). These amounts may need to be increased if trends toward
a prolonged icing event (i.E., freezing rain persisting into
Friday afternoon/night) continue.

Looking ahead to early next week, the next system is expected to
bring more precip to our region, especially Monday night into
Tuesday. This setup continues to look warmer compared to the
previous system, given the absence of high latitude blocking,
and would favor predominantly rain.

Temperature-wise, daily means are expected to average near normal
Friday thru Sunday, then around 5 to 10 plus degrees above normal
Monday thru Thursday.

Aviation /13z Thursday through Monday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr today. High clouds around 25 kft lower to 8-12 kft from
west to east this afternoon. N-ne 10 kt or less early this
morning veer more ely late this morning and then out of the s-se
this afternoon.

Cigs lower from W to E tonight as precip arrives. Held off MVFR
cigs/vsbys until closer to midnight edt for abe/rdg and until
07-09z farther east toward i-95 terminals. However, there is a
low chance that MVFR begins 2-4 hours earlier than that if
precip moves in faster than currently forecast. Prob30 group
covers this potential. SE winds 6-12 kt are expected tonight.

Outlook...

MVFR possible in low clouds Friday and Friday night, then again
Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, predominantlyVFR. Southeast
winds may gust 20 to 25 knots on Friday, and northwest winds may
gust around 20 knots on Saturday.

Marine
Winds and seas below SCA today and tonight. NE winds 5-15 kt this
morning will become sely this afternoon and tonight. These SE winds
will initially be light this afternoon but increase to 15-20 kt by
late tonight.

Outlook...

we have issued a gale watch from 18z Friday to 09z Saturday for the
northern nj coastal waters (anz450-451) for southeasterly wind
gusts up to 35 knots during this time frame.

Outside of the gale watch, a small craft advisory is in effect
for Friday and Friday night for the southern new jersey and
delaware coastal waters. On lower delaware bay, a small craft
advisory is also in effect, but only for Friday.

A small craft advisory may be needed on Saturday for northwest wind
gust of 25 to 30 knots and seas of 5-8 ft, especially across the nj
coastal waters.

Another SCA may be needed Monday night into Tuesday, as
southeasterly winds and seas increase.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through the
week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor tidal
flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases by
Friday. Tidal anomalies are currently around 0.5 feet above
astronomical this morning. We expect this to continue today.

Beginning tonight, a low pressure system will bring a prolonged
period of onshore flow, further increasing the surge.

Forecast tidal levels from the etss have trended slightly
upward for tonight, indicating reedy point, lewes and sandy
hook could reach their minor coastal flood stage with the high
tide cycle late this evening. These etss forecasts would fall
just shy of threshold for coastal flood advisory with spotty minor
coastal flooding tonight. Ofs guidance for tonight is
significantly lower than etss. It seems the etss may be a bit
overdone since with the expected SE wind direction and lighter
wind speeds, we should not see a surge any higher than what we
currently have tonight.

The high tide of most concern is still Friday evening and
Friday night, particularly along the northern and central new
jersey shore. By this tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to
1.0 feet to reach minor flooding thresholds, which is likely.

However, not sure yet if we will have another 0.3 feet surge to
reach advisory thresholds. The exact magnitude of the surge will
be dependent on how quickly the onshore flow develops and how
strong it will be by Friday.

Given the fetch and duration of southeasterly flow, some of the
surge guidance is also raising water levels along the eastern
shore of maryland, particularly for the Friday evening high
tide. At this time, none of the guidance reaches the minor
flooding threshold, but this will bear watching.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 5 am edt Saturday for
anz452>455.

Gale watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for anz431.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... Franck
aviation... Franck/klein
marine... Franck/klein
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 32 mi42 min E 1.9 G 2.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi42 min 43°F1023.5 hPa (-1.1)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi42 min E 2.9 G 2.9 42°F 1024 hPa (-0.8)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi42 min 43°F 42°F1023.4 hPa (-0.9)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 46 mi42 min Calm G 0 43°F 41°F1023.5 hPa (-1.1)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 47 mi42 min S 6 G 8 41°F 43°F1022.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ8 mi48 minN 0 mi42°F23°F47%1023.8 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ15 mi57 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F23°F40%1023.4 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ17 mi49 minVar 510.00 miFair44°F26°F49%1023.4 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ18 mi49 minE 310.00 miFair46°F24°F42%1024.2 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ23 mi49 minNNE 510.00 miFair47°F23°F39%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N7N7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33CalmSW3Calm
1 day agoS3NE344CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3N9
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2 days agoN33S3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Passaic, Passaic River, New Jersey
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Passaic
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Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.353.420.7-0.4-0.902.24.66.26.76.25.13.72.210-0.6-0.11.94.46.47.3

Tide / Current Tables for East Rutherford, Passaic River, New Jersey
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East Rutherford
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:07 PM EDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.55.23.51.80.4-0.5-0.902.54.96.46.76.45.43.92.20.7-0.3-0.8-0.22.14.86.67.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.