Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wading River, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:29PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:03 PM EST (02:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 727 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow early this evening, then snow late this evening and early morning. Rain and sleet late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow, rain and sleet in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 727 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south and west tonight, then redevelops to our south and passes to the south and east late tonight into Monday morning. High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday, followed by another low pressure system for mid week. High pressure then returns for Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wading River, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.83     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180048
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
748 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the south and west, then redevelops to
our south and passes to the south and east late tonight into Monday
morning. High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday, followed by
another low pressure system for Wednesday into Thursday. High
pressure then returns for Thursday night into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Forecast mainly on track, with light snow beginning to move into
western portions of the region this evening. 18z guidance
indicating best frontogenetic forcing moving through interior
portions of lower hudson valley and southern connecticut
tonight, with potential for 3 to 5 inches across that region,
and 2 to 4 inches for coastal ct, lower hud and interior NE nj.

Likely transition to a wintry mix of light snow and fzra
towards daybreak as mid-level begin to dry but ample low-level
moisture remains ahead of approaching shortwave. A light glazing
of ice on top of snow covered roads likely for the morning
commute in this advisory area.

Meanwhile, for LI and nyc nj metro, this area may be in between
two best frontogenetic zones to the N and S overnight, with
generally around an inch of snow. Much of this will likely fall
by 2 am, before transitioning to a wintry mix. A brief
transition to freezing rain possible for north shore of li, and
nw suburbs of nyc nj metro, with onshore flow slow to increase
until after 09z, prompting a changeover to plain light rain and
drizzle by daybreak as surface temps warm above freezing.

Otherwise... Another quick moving storm system for tonight into
Monday morning. Start time looks to be between 0 to 3z for the
most part, perhaps far eastern areas get going closer to 4z or
so. Precipitation type looks to be snow at the start everywhere,
with a transition to ice pellets mixed with snow closer to and
just after midnight for the city and southwestern section of the
cwa, with the transition being more gradual to the east-
northeast.

Vertical motion not very impressive for much of the CWA with
this system, with more lift being focused along the far
northern, northeastern edge of our CWA and up into new england.

Due to the overall lack of overwhelming low level warm advection
and the 500 mb confluence zone over SE canada holding through
about 9z, the concern is that some light freezing rain and
drizzle for just and hour or two into the early part of the
Monday morning commute, possibly as far south as coastal ct and
the north shore of li.

Should be slippery and treacherous travel across most, if not
all zones regardless.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Only low level moisture will remain into the first half of
Monday with any snow and ice tapering off early across far
northeastern sections of ct, and some leftover drizzle and light
rain for the remainder of the cwa. May take a little while to
clear out during Monday afternoon, but increasing cold air
advection should aid in drying and clearing things out by the
late afternoon. Temperatures will drop well below average into
Monday night with teens north and northwest, with widespread
lower 20s closer to the coast, with some single digit and lower
teen wind chills late at night and early Tuesday morning. Winds
may briefly gust to 30 mph in some locations during Tuesday
evening as the storm intensifies and pulls away out over the
atlantic.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
The region transitions under a confluent upper flow Tue into wed,
between upper ridging south of bermuda and polar low sliding across
central quebec and canadian maritimes. At the surface, canadian high
pressure builds overhead on Tuesday into Tuesday night and then
slides eastward Wednesday.

Region comes more under the influence of the southern stream
midweek, as early week SW us trough shears eastward towards the
great lakes and new england, while SW troughing is reinforced once
again. In the SW flow aloft, weak southern stream energy lifts up
towards the region Tue night into wed, with associated southern low
gradually approaching Wed and tracking near the region thu. Although
forcing with this system does not look to be overly strong, deep
layered lift ahead of shortwave and right rear of 175+ kt llj
combined with gulf tap of 2-3 +std pwats is trending towards a
moderate precip event for late Wed into Thu morning. Thermal
profiles appear cold enough to start as all snow Wed wed eve, then
gradually transitioning to wintry mix interior and all rain
city coast Wed night into Thu morning, before gradually tapering off
thu afternoon as mid-level shortwave passes. Too early to talk about
snow ice amounts, but potential for a light snow sleet accumulation,
before transition to rain city coast, and some icing interior.

Thereafter, generally zonal pac influenced upper flow for late week
into the weekend, lending to slightly above seasonable temps. Next
feature of interest will be the timing amplitude of the late week sw
trough as it ejects eastward across the country this weekend.

Considerable timing spread exists, as well as degrees of interaction
with northern stream. With available gulf moisture, this energy will
likely bring the next chance of significant precip from low
pressure s. At this point too much uncertainty in evolution to
diagnose p-types.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Friday
An area of low pressure approaches this evening, then impacts
the terminals overnight into Monday.

Light SE winds will continue this evening. Winds will shift to
the E as the wintry mix develops overnight and then NE by day
break. The flow will become NW by Monday afternoon and increase
into Monday evening becoming gusty, 20-30 kt.

Vfr through 03z. Conditions will lower to MVFR and ifr
overnight as a wintry mix develops. Precipitation tapers of to
a drizzle Monday morning with gradual improvement into the
evening. The precipitation type is expected to rapidly
transition to rain by 09z at nyc terminals and kisp. Elsewhere,
a wintry mix including a few hours of -fzdz, especially at
kswf, khpn and kbdr may be possible into the late morning.

Conditions should gradually improve Monday afternoon.

There is the potential for 2 to 3 inches of snowfall overnight at
kswf with 1 to 2 inches most elsewhere. Lowest totals expected
for nyc terminals and kisp where an around inch is forecast
before changing to rain.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night into Tuesday Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt for the
evening into overnight, diminishing early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday Snow possible with MVFR or lower conditions in the
afternoon and evening, changing to a wintry mix at night.

Thursday MVFR or lower in a wintry mix inland and rain at the
coast in the morning. NW gusts 15-20 kt possible in the evening.

Friday Vfr.

Marine
Low pressure approaches from the southwest, passing to the
south and east late tonight into Monday. Sub SCA conditions are
expected tonight through much of the day on Monday, before
winds and seas increase later Monday afternoon. SCA conditions
will then return to the ocean waters, and the eastern sound and
eastern bays during Monday night. This will be a short-lived
event though as high pressure quickly builds into the waters on
Tuesday with conditions falling below sca.

The next chance for SCA conds will likely be Wed night through
thu night with the next low pressure system moving over the
waters.

Hydrology
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

Tides coastal flooding
A low pressure system tracking to the south of the region
tonight into Monday, and a full moon on the 19th, will combine to
bring localized minor coastal flooding during the Monday morning
high tide.

Affected areas will be the most vulnerable locales of the south
shore bays of queens and nassau county, W long island sound, and
along lower ny nj harbor.

Surge of 1 to 1 1 2 ft and, locally 2 ft, is needed for minor flood
thresholds to be reached.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for ctz005>012.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for nyz067>071.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for njz002-004-
103>105.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm Monday to 7 am est Tuesday for
anz330-340.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm Monday to 7 am est Tuesday for
anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Je nv
near term... Je nv
short term... Je
long term... Nv
aviation... Ds
marine... Je nv
hydrology... Je nv
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi34 min SSW 8 G 8.9 33°F 39°F1017.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 23 mi40 min SSW 5.1 G 8 32°F 36°F1017 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 46 mi74 min S 5.8 G 7.8 34°F 40°F2 ft1018.7 hPa (+0.8)24°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi129 min SSW 7 G 8.9 33°F 1017.9 hPa19°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi34 min 33°F 38°F1017.5 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi34 min SW 5.1 G 6 33°F 39°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi68 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast33°F24°F70%1017.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY14 mi71 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1018.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi68 minS 610.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1017.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT22 mi71 minS 610.00 miOvercast35°F21°F59%1017.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi72 minS 710.00 miOvercast34°F21°F59%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7N8N9N10N9N7
G16
N7N3N5N5N4N5N55CalmS10S5S6S5S7SW3S3SE5
1 day agoSW7SW7SW4W3NW12
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SW7S7SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
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Sun -- 02:25 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:44 AM EST     6.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 PM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EST     6.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.700.112.445.56.56.75.94.52.81.2-0-0.6-0.20.92.54.15.46.15.94.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:55 AM EST     1.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:20 AM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:02 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:33 PM EST     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.10.81.61.81.61.10.1-0.8-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.8-00.91.41.41.10.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.