Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Sinai, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:15PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 9:46 AM EDT (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 718 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog this morning. Numerous showers and chance of tstms early this morning...then scattered showers and chance of tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Numerous showers...mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening... Then 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 718 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal system approaches from the W today...and passes tonight. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday...and shifts offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the central united states Thursday night and impacts the region Friday and Saturday. High pressure returns for Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Sinai, NY
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location: 40.97, -73.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 281139
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
739 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A frontal system will approach today, and pass early Wednesday.

High pressure will build in for Thursday, and drift offshore
Thursday night. A low pressure system will impact the region
Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday and
Monday.

Near term /through tonight/
Satellite indicates the main upper level system was moving
over eastern kentucky into west virginia. Elevated instability
was increasing across the forecast area evidenced by showers and
thunderstorms. These should continue to develop per the nam
which appears to have a very good handle on the activity thus
far. Fog was widespread, however, visibilities were generally 2
to 4 miles, with areas 1 to 2 miles. As the main system
approaches this afternoon and evening, more showers can be
expected. Some embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out until
the instability axis exits, leaving remnant stratiform light
rain. The models were in good agreement so a blend was used for
temperatures through tonight.

Short term /Wednesday/
Dry weather with a northwesterly breeze. Despite a cooler
airmass in place, temperatures will actually be warmer than
Tuesday because of deep mixing. Mostly sunny skies are progged,
although some fair weather convective clouds will be possible if
they are able to overcome the subsidence. A blend of the
guidance was used for temperatures.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
The extended period will feature a split flow across the continental
united states with systems moving through active northern and
southern streams. As a result, even through there are similarities
in the longwave and overall solutions, the details of the forecast
have become more uncertain, and inconsistencies from run to run have
increased. Currently there is now little to no phasing of systems
impacting the east, and in particular the region, Thursday night
into Saturday, and yet another system Monday night into Tuesday.

There are now more uncertainties as to the depth of the lows,
timing, and tracks.

For late Thursday night through Saturday night have long period of
probabilities, and even likely probabilities from Friday into
Saturday. This is likely too long a period however, with the
uncertainties wanted to maintain some consistency with prior
forecasts. Both the ECMWF and GFS have some lingering cold air
across the northern portions of the CWA Thursday night before warm
advection increases. So have kept a mix of snow and rain inland.

Canadian high pressure builds in for late Saturday night into
Monday, and possibly Tuesday if ridging remains as per the gfs.

The ECMWF is quicker to weaken and shift the ridge off shore
Tuesday. Have introduced a low chance of precipitation for
Tuesday.

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/
A front remains just south of the terminals and attempts to
push back north as a warm front on Tuesday.

Light ene winds for Tuesday morning with areas of rain and low
ceilings. Lifr conditions at times this morning, otherwise
areas of rain this morning will result in ifr conditions at
times, and then back down to lifr when the rain lightens or
stops.

Another area of rainfall will arrive later in the day and for
the evening. There is a thunderstorm chance with this next area
of rainfall for the city terminals, but not confident enough to
put in tafs at this time. Ifr to lifr conditions are expected
to prevail until about 6z late tonight, with improving
conditions thereafter from west to east.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi47 min E 5.1 G 8 41°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.3)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 7 42°F 40°F1016.1 hPa (+0.7)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 23 mi62 min E 9.7 G 9.7 39°F 1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 29 mi62 min ENE 12 G 16 39°F 1 ft39°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi47 min 2.9 G 8.9 40°F 40°F1013.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi1.8 hrsESE 74.00 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1014.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi1.8 hrsESE 59.00 miOvercast42°F42°F100%1015.5 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi55 minENE 109.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1015.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi54 minE 67.00 miOvercast41°F39°F96%1015.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi54 minESE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SW5S4SW7W8SW7N8N7CalmN3N4N3NE3NE4SE3NE4NE5NE5W5NE5E3E4SE7E10
1 day agoE6E7E9E13E15
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2 days agoNW6N4N7S4NE6S6N12N13NE8E6N12
G17
E5NE9NE10NE7NE10NE9NE7NE6NE10NE10NE11NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
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Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM EDT     7.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.575.53.61.60.1-0.8-0.50.82.74.76.47.37.26.14.22.30.6-0.5-0.60.42.34.46.3

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:16 PM EDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.16.44.931.2-0.2-0.8-0.50.82.74.66.16.96.65.43.71.90.4-0.5-0.60.52.24.25.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.