Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Sinai, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 11:58 PM EDT (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:08AMMoonset 1:06PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1036 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers and tstms late this evening and early morning. Patchy dense fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1036 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across the waters tonight. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Wednesday before giving way to another cold front. High pressure builds again late this week. A weak cold front then passes through Saturday, followed by a stronger cold front Sunday, with a return to high pressure thereafter.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Sinai, NY
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location: 40.97, -73.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260247
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1047 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves across the region tonight. Weak high
pressure briefly builds in Wednesday before giving way to
another cold front Wednesday night. Thereafter, high pressure
will dominate into the late week, though weak surface troughs
will develop each afternoon across the interior. A weak cold
front then passes through Saturday, followed by a stronger cold
front Sunday, with a return to high pressure thereafter.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A dense fog advisory has been been issued for suffolk county on
li and new haven, middlesex, and new london counties in ct
until 6am. Conditions across these locations have dropped over
the last hour, reducing visibilities in many spots to a quarter
mile or less.

A cold front is slowly moving across the area, which is
currently extending north to south from the nassau-suffolk
border, northward through fairfield county in ct. As the front
slowly works itself eastward, visibilities should improve,
however with nearly calm winds, it could take much of the night
to pass east of the cwa.

A few of the high-res forecast models do indicate some isolated
showers or thunderstorms overnight, so will continue to keep at
least a slight chance in the forecast.

Lows are a blend of mav met which are in pretty good agreement,
ranging from the low 60s to near 70.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
There will be ridging aloft with those westerlies translating
farther north of the region. Weak high pressure briefly builds
in Wednesday. Another cold front moves in Wednesday night. There
will be another weak shortwave aloft moving in Wednesday night
to accompany the front.

Mainly dry conditions are expected outside of a possible shower
or thunderstorm late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening. More efficient mixing is expected with downslope
westerly flow Wednesday. This will both promote greater daytime
instability but also slightly lower dewpoints so the instability
will be limited. High temperatures forecast are from the ecs
guidance with warmer values for the coastlines, getting well
into the 80s for most of the coast, and close to 90 degrees
within urban northeast nj and nyc. For Wednesday night, a blend
of ecs mav met was used for low temperatures with winds becoming
light once again and some radiational cooling late to promote a
more vast range of lows, ranging from upper 50s to lower 70s.

There is a low risk of rip current development at the atlantic
ocean beaches on Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
A bermuda high will persist into the late week, with a deeper upper
level trough over the hudson bay. Our region will remain between the
two systems, with subsidence and generally offshore flow, with the
exception of afternoon sea breezes, leading to above normal
temperatures and increasing humidity into Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage and locations will be less certain, and likely
more reliant upon weak upstream vorticity maximums, some of which
will be convectively induced and heavily dependent upon what occurs
well to the west. These vorticity maximums will then interact with
daily thermal troughs and sea breezes for at least isolated coverage
of thunderstorms each day.

By the weekend, the pattern begins to shift as ridging strengthens
across the central u.S., allowing the hudson bay trough to move
southeastward into the region in response. Although the timing of
the trough remains uncertain, the past few runs of the deterministic
guidance have become more consistent in the closed upper low moving
into the northeast Sunday during the day. If the timing is
maintained, the trough and attendant surface front will be favorably
timed with peak diurnal heating and instability, which combined with
the strengthening deep layer shear could lead to severe weather
potential. Will need to monitor closely in subsequent updates.

Thereafter, a marked decrease in humidity and return to seasonable
to slightly below normal temperatures will occur as a canadian high
builds into the region.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front gradually moves across the terminals tonight. High
pressure builds to the south on Wednesday.

Vfr for nyc terminals and swf. Ifr and lifr is expected at hpn,
isp, bdr, and gon into the early morning hours. There is
uncertainty on the duration and extent of fog and stratus with
potential of fluctuations between flight categories at times.

Gradual improvement should begin to occur from west to east
after 06z.VFR prevails on Wednesday.

Light flow becomes NW overnight behind the cold front. NW winds
continue into Wednesday morning before backing to the w-sw in
the afternoon. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal
terminals.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday Vfr, slight chance of a shower storm in the evening
at night.

Thursday-Friday Vfr.

Saturday and Sunday MostlyVFR. Chance of a thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower conds.

Marine
Some dense fog has developed on portions of long island sound
this evening, however based on latest webcams across the area
beaches, the fog is not widespread enough for a dense fog
advisory. So, a marine weather statement has been issued for
patchy dense fog. This will need to me monitored in case the fog
expands to more of the waters.

Otherwise, the conditions on the waters are expected to remain
below small craft advisory criteria through Wednesday night as
the pressure gradient remains relatively weak.

A generally weak pressure gradient under high pressure will maintain
sub-sca levels on all waters through the late week. A cold front is
then expected to pass through the waters on Saturday, followed by a
stronger front on Sunday. Wind gusts to near 20-25 kt may be
possible, with an increasing threat for a few showers
and thunderstorms over the waters as well.

Hydrology
There are no hydrologic concerns into the weekend.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Dense fog advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for ctz006>008-
010>012.

Ny... Dense fog advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for nyz078>081.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Md jm
near term... Bc jm
short term... Jm
long term... Md
aviation... Ds
marine... Md jm
hydrology... Md jm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi64 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 64°F1011.7 hPa
44069 19 mi58 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 68°F 73°F68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi58 min Calm G 1 69°F 66°F1012.6 hPa (+1.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi58 min Calm G 2.9 71°F 65°F1012.4 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi62 minN 00.13 miFog69°F69°F100%1012.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi62 minN 00.25 miFog68°F66°F96%1012.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi66 minENE 50.25 miLight Rain Fog69°F68°F96%1012 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi65 minN 00.25 miFog67°F66°F100%1012.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi65 minN 00.25 miFog72°F70°F94%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S6S6S7S7SE7SE8S6S6S8SE10S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.82.83.94.95.65.75.24.23.12.11.311.32.33.54.75.66.15.95.142.81.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.