Wednesday, August22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Sinai, NY

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Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:41PM Wednesday August 22, 2018 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:32PMMoonset 2:28AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 121 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
Overnight..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers with isolated tstms.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 121 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through the waters overnight, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state on Wednesday. High pressure then builds over the area through Friday, then slides off the new england coast through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Sinai, NY
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location: 40.97, -73.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220546
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
146 am edt Wed aug 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front moves through the area overnight, followed by a cold
front crossing the tri-state on Wednesday. High pressure then
builds over the region through Friday, then slides off the eastern
seaboard through early next week. A cold front then approaches
next Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Updated the probabilities with the warm front moving through the
region. Increased to categorical where precipitation was
occurring and then moved through the higher probabilities with
the warm front movement. Once the warm front occluded front
move through there is little to no precipitation indicated in
the hrrr and 3 km nam, so lowered probabilities to slight
chance.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Updated the probabilities with the warm front occluded front
expected to be north of the region early this morning. Then with
the passage of the cold front brought back chance probabilities
as the cold front moves through the region. The 00z NAM and 3 km
nam really not indicating much if any precipitation with the
passage of the cold front. However, the upper trough remains in
the area with some impulses rotating into the region.

With persistent cyclonic flow aloft, expect mostly
cloudy partly sunny conditions.

Chances may briefly increase as the upper trough and attendant
cold front move through in the afternoon early evening, with a
rapid decrease thereafter as drier air advects into the region.

With relatively cool temperatures aloft and a dry subcloud
layer, small hail and gusty winds will be possible in any
thunderstorm that develops, but severe weather is not
anticipated. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of
climatological normals.

Following the cold frontal passage, cold advection will prevail
into the night, with temperatures a few degrees below
climatological normals.

There is a high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip
current formation from Wednesday into Wednesday evening due to a
combination of sw-wsw winds at 10-15kt and S swells of 5-6ft at
7-8 seconds.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upr trof will pass during the day on thu, sparking a CU field that
should flatten in the aftn leading to bkn-ovc skies. Although the
models are not giving any indication of occurrence attm, any slowing
of the trof could result in isold-sct shwrs and tstms. Subsidence
and the loss of daytime heating should allow for clearing skies
overnight. High pres centered over the region on Fri so skc. An
increase in cirrus on Sat as SW flow aloft develops, then some fair
wx CU on Sun with a slight increase in moisture and a lack of
subsidence. The gathering heat over the midwest will begin to spill
into the region Mon and tue. The ECMWF continues to build the heat
more rapidly, outpacing the 12z gfs. This may be due to convection
upstream. Because of the tendency of the GFS to overdo convection at
times, along with the consistency of the ecmwf, the quicker and more
significant warmup has been followed for the fcst. Although the nbm
was used thru the extended, it was raised 3 degrees both Mon and tue
to allow for this.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm front lifts north of the region early this morning,
followed by a cold front later this afternoon.

MVFR ifr CIGS across all the terminals as a warm front lifts
north across the terminals. Showers along with isolated thunder
will accompany the front. The precipitation with the front is
moving through the area fairly quickly, and will have most of
the precipitation over by 10z. CIGS should remain MVFR ifr
through around 15-16z or so, then improve toVFR. This timing
may be off by an hour two. We could see improvement a bit
quicker than forecast.

It should remainVFR then for much of the day, except there is a
chance of some brief MVFR conditions as some showers or isolated
thunder develop along the cold front as it pushes across the
region. Best chance of the frontal passage will be 16z-19z for
nyc.

Winds this morning will be from the southeast, then gradually
shift to the south behind the warm front. Winds then become more
westerly during the day, and eventually northwesterly behind the
cold front. Speeds remain 10-12 kt, with gusts to around or just
under 20kt, this afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night-Sunday Vfr.

Marine
Made minor changes with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. Updated the weather
expected across the forecast waters overnight into Wednesday
with a warm frontal passage this morning and a cold front this
afternoon into the early evening.

Conditions will initially be tranquil on the waters, before
increasing southwest flow allows seas to quickly build later
tonight. Although winds will be marginal, seas will build to
small craft advisory (sca) levels by Wednesday morning, and
remain elevated into Wednesday night. Gusts on the ocean may
briefly approach SCA levels late Wednesday due to cold air
advection.

Otherwise, seas on the ocean will linger close to 5 ft thu
morning, then drop below SCA levels by the end of the day.

Elsewhere, winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria. As
the pressure gradient slackens Friday-Sunday night, winds and
waves will then stay below SCA levels.

Hydrology
Generally 1 3 to 1 2 inch of rainfall is expected through
Wednesday, with locally higher amounts possible. The most
likely threat would be for possible minor flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas. The probability of flash flooding is very
low.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday night through Sunday night.

No significant precipitation is forecast for Monday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk from 6 am edt this morning through this
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 6 am this morning
to noon edt Thursday for anz350-353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi45 min SE 12 G 16 71°F 76°F1010.8 hPa
44069 19 mi51 min ESE 16 G 19 72°F 76°F72°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi33 min SSE 7 G 14 71°F 79°F1011.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 23 mi58 min ESE 14 G 16 72°F 75°F1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 29 mi61 min ESE 12 G 16 72°F 1 ft69°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 37 mi36 min SE 14 G 18 75°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi33 min 75°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi55 minSE 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1011.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi55 minSE 610.00 miOvercast71°F70°F96%1011.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi59 minSE 1110.00 miOvercast72°F66°F84%1011.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi58 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1011.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi58 minESE 8 G 1410.00 miOvercast71°F66°F84%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmNE5CalmCalmNE3NE8NE11E4NE6E8SE11SE6E8SE10SE11SE9SE8E6SE8SE8E9SE12SE12
G17
1 day agoNE6NE5NE8NE4N8NE8NE9NE9NE13NE10NE11NE8NE8NE8NE6E5E7SE5SE6E5E4E6E4Calm
2 days agoN9N8NE10NE11NE15NE11NE14
G19
NE10NE10NE10NE10NE10NE12E7NE5NE4SE8E6SE3E3NE5NE7NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
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Wed -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM EDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:42 PM EDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.61.40.70.91.62.84.25.46.165.34.231.81.11.11.834.35.76.56.76.1

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:28 AM EDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:37 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM EDT     6.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.51.30.60.71.42.53.855.75.75.14.231.810.91.52.745.46.36.55.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.