Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Sinai, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:37PM Saturday February 23, 2019 8:07 PM EST (01:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:34PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 626 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain late this evening. Rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Tue..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 626 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong low pressure system tracks across the great lakes tonight and southeast canada Sunday into Monday. High pressure then dominates the weather pattern through the middle of next week with another storm possibly impacting the region late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Sinai, NY
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location: 40.97, -73.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240030
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
730 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A strong low pressure system tracks across the great lakes
tonight and into southeast canada Sunday into Monday. High
pressure then dominates the weather pattern through the middle
of next week with another storm possibly impacting the region
late in the week into the weekend.

Near term through Sunday
The forecast is mostly on track. Pops have been adjusted upward
a little for the evening hours, but widespread likely pops still
appear to be more for the overnight hours.

High pressure moves well offshore tonight. A strong shortwave trough
across the plains will support an intensifying low pressure tracking
across the great lakes tonight. The lows associated frontal system
will approach from the south and west.

Some light precip pushing in from the west and falling mainly
west of nyc early this evening. Initially, temperatures will be
above freezing across the region. However, there should be some
surface cooling as the initial precip falls into a dry air
mass. Temperatures aloft are supportive of liquid precipitation.

The main concern is across orange county where temperatures may
be able to drop to 32 and stay there for a few hours as the
rain becomes steadier overnight. This may be more for the
northern half of the county, but will keep the winter weather
advisory as is for now. Any icing will be light and only a few
hundredths, but it does not take much freezing rain to cause
problems and the chance of this is greatest in orange county.

There could be some be some isolated locations across putnam and
interior SW ct that see temps around 32 as the precip begins.

Will continue to highlight this in an hwo for now and monitor
precip and obs through the evening.

Precip will continue to overspread the region after midnight as warm
advection becomes enhanced with the approach of the warm front. It
may take until the early morning hours for precip to make it to
eastern LI and eastern ct. Steady moderate rain moves across Sunday
morning. A mid level dry slot moves across in the afternoon bringing
an end to the rain. The trend in the models over the last 24 hours
is for slightly lower rainfall amounts, averaging about an inch.

Temperatures on Sunday are also problematic and will be
dependent on how far north the warm front moves. The warm front
may only be able to reach the ct coast in the afternoon before
eventually getting shunted away as the trailing cold front
surges east in the evening. Highs should be able to reach the
upper 40s to near 50 inland and the lower to middle 50s near the
coast. Temps could be cooler if the warm front stalls further
south.

Winds will be light tonight into much of Sunday, only beginning to
increase Sunday evening.

Short term Sunday night through Monday
Strong and potentially damaging winds will be the main concern
Sunday night through Monday.

Bufkit soundings on both the NAM and GFS continue to indicate deep
mixing and very strong low level winds Sunday night behind the cold
front and continuing into Monday. The winds Sunday night may be
aided by strong pressure rises behind a secondary low tracking up
the new england coast. The soundings indicate winds 45 to 55 kt from
about 2 to 5 kft with good momentum transfer and mixing. Another
piece of evidence which could be hinting at a greater high wind
potential is mos. Sustained winds on both the mav and met guidance
are in the mid 20s to low 30s (kt) Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. When MOS indicates such high sustained winds, at least
advisory level are usually met. Add in strong cold advection, a well
mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer, the potential exists for
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. It is always a challenge with how
much of these winds will ultimately make it down to the surface. One
negating factor may from highest pressure rises occurring to our
south. We have gone with a high wind watch for now due to the
strongest winds most likely occurring late Sunday night and Monday
morning afternoon. The high wind watch was collaborated with
neighboring offices. Warnings were issued further west due to a
quicker timing of the higher winds.

Winds should gradually weaken early Monday evening. It should be a
dry day with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Deep w-nw
flow may bring varying degrees of stratocu during the day for partly
to mostly cloudy skies.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
High pressure ridge slowly shifts in from the west Monday night
through Tuesday with diminishing winds, but still breezy through the
period. Temperatures will be below normal. The ridge axis makes it
over here on Wednesday and high pressure should be strong enough to
keep the entire area dry through the day.

Gfs, and to a lesser extent the canadian model, continue to show a
chance of light snow Wednesday night coinciding with slight upper
troughing and a weak shortwave along with perhaps a weak surface
reflection. Will leave in slight chc pops for this period. Dry
otherwise for Thursday with high pressure still the dominant
feature across the northeast. Temperatures remaining below normal.

Pcpn chances then increase at the end of the week into the weekend.

Just slight chc pops for Friday with another weak shortwave moving
through. Pcpn type probably a wintry mix as highs end up mostly 35-
40. Better chances for pcpn arrive Friday night into Saturday as a
primary low moves through the eastern great lakes and passes us to
the north with a weak secondary low shifting over or nearby us.

Looks so far like another event where snow turns into a wintry mix
and or rain.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Weak low pressure and an attendant warm front moving up the mid
atlantic coast will pass through early Sunday afternoon. Before
its passage, rain should develop tonight, with conds quickly
dropping through MVFR to ifr at most terminals after midnight,
and then to lifr in the pre-dawn or early daylight hours. Precip
could begin at kswf as light freezing rain--while temps there
are currently in the mid 30s, they may still fall to around
freezing for a couple of hours at precip onset.

Not much improvement in flight cat if any expected until late
day or early evening just ahead of an approaching cold front.

As the low approaches, llws expected late tonight into this
morning as SE flow increases to 45-55 kt at 2 kft agl. S-sw
winds also now expected to increase to 45-55 kt ahead of an
approaching cold front. E flow at coastal terminals should also
gust over 20 kt this morning.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday night Cold FROPA early with rapid improvement toVFR.

W winds 15-25kt with g35-45kt.

Monday Vfr. W-nw winds 25-35kt with g45-50kt.

Monday night Vfr. NW winds diminishing to g30-40kt in the
evening, then g20kt after midnight.

Tuesday Vfr. NW winds 10-15g20kt.

Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
Strengthening pressure gradient will occur tonight ahead of an
approaching warm front. The warm front should lift north of
the waters Sunday morning early afternoon and will be followed
by a strong cold front passage. SCA conditions are expected to
develop on the ocean on Sunday. Behind the cold front Sunday
night, winds will increase significantly on all waters. Gale
conditions are likely on all waters with the potential for storm
force winds, especially late Sunday night into Monday
afternoon. The storm watch has been expanded to include the li
sound, LI bays, and ny harbor. The gale watch is no longer in
effect. Winds should slowly weaken early Monday evening. Ocean
seas will build to 7 to 12 ft Sunday night into Monday and seas
on LI sound could be 3 to 6 feet.

Gales then continue through Monday night, followed by SCA conds
Tuesday. As the pressure gradient relaxes further, all waters should
have winds below advisory criteria by the end of Wednesday morning.

A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-advisory conditions
through Thursday.

Hydrology
Around 1-1.5 inches of rain is fcst tngt and sun. Some minor urban
or poor drainage flooding will be possible. Otherwise, no hydrologic
impacts are anticipated thru fri.

Tides coastal flooding
Blowout tides are possible with the Monday afternoon evening low
tide. The threat appears greatest for the south shore back bays
at this time.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for ctz005>012.

Ny... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for nyz067>075-078>081-176>179.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for nyz067.

Nj... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... Storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for anz350-
353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi44 min E 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 36°F1026.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi38 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 39°F1027.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi38 min E 1 G 2.9 36°F 34°F1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi2.2 hrsESE 510.00 miOvercast37°F30°F76%1026.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair36°F28°F76%1027.5 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi76 minE 410.00 miFair36°F28°F76%1027.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi75 minVar 410.00 miFair37°F28°F73%1027.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi75 minESE 410.00 miFair38°F28°F68%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     6.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:17 PM EST     6.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:35 PM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.26.46.86.14.72.91.2-0.2-0.9-0.60.62.34.15.66.36.15.13.51.90.5-0.5-0.50.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.