Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:28 PM   Moonset 2:32 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1218 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
This afternoon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds. Light rain and drizzle likely. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Sun night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1218 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure slowly moves south and east of the area through tonight. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast late tonight through Friday. High pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 161755 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 155 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure spins south of the area before slowly pulling away to the southeast this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. High pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track this afternoon. Light rain or drizzle will continue into the afternoon across eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Elsewhere, any light rain or drizzle will be spotty.

Winds will remain N/NE this afternoon at 10-20 mph with localized gusts up to 30 mph. Highs will be in the low to middle 60s for much of the area, though some western areas may rise into the upper 60s, still 5-10 degrees below average.

Low pressure will slowly spin south away from Long Island into this evening, then further offshore tonight. Most of the rain should diminish, but cannot completely rule out some lingering light rain/drizzle near the coast. High pressure begins nosing in from the northeast tonight. Lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure slides into the area from the north and northeast in response to developing shortwave ridging over the area, as the low pushes further offshore. This will result in generally dry conditions on Friday with temperatures climbing back up to seasonable values, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The next system approaches from the west into Friday night and early Saturday, bringing with it a low chance for showers approaching from the west into early Saturday morning. Most global models show the frontal system slowly weakening as it approaches the area with high pressure fighting to remain overhead. A more robust low pressure system looks to develop well to the southeast and push offshore Saturday into Saturday night. Though there will remain a low chance of showers for western areas, the trend in models to suppress the system to the south has allowed for a drier forecast to take hold. Despite the main energy shifting south, high pressure will allow for a persistent NE/E wind over the area, keeping the region cooler than average through the weekend under mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*

*A drier trend in the pattern for the weekend.

*Below normal temperatures to start the period with a gradual warm up to near or slightly above normal by mid next week.

By Monday into Tuesday, model divergence continues as the more progressive EC takes the low to the northeast and out of the region while the GFS maintains a more cutoff solution and meanders the surface low off the NC coast. Weak ridging builds in thereafter, with a shortwave and low pressure system approaching from the west late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure south of Long Island will slowly track south and weaken through tonight. Meanwhile high pressure builds in from the north.

Mainly light rain and/or drizzle will gradually dissipate in coverage this afternoon. KSWF will be mainly dry, but could see spotty light rain/drizzle. Looking for a persistence forecast the next 12 hours with ceilings mainly MVFR for NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley, and IFR/MVFR for the eastern terminals.
Expecting improvement to VFR in NYC around 09z, however, can not rule out conditions not improving til after sunrise Friday morning.

N-NE with gusts to around 25-30kt along the coast and 20-25kt elsewhere, will slowly diminish this afternoon and evening.
Most of the gusts come to an end around 00z. Winds speeds are then expected to remain around 10kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of VFR conditions may occur later than forecast, possible after 12z Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Low pressure south of the area will allow SCA conditions to persist for all waters today with gusts upwards of 30 kt and seas on the ocean 7-10 feet. Gusts taper off tonight but seas remain elevated on the ocean above SCA thresholds through much of the day on Friday.

Sub SCA conditions are likely thereafter into Monday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no additional hydrologic concerns for the rest of today through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Great Captain Island
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Thu -- 12:35 AM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:58 PM EDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Captain Island, Connecticut, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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