Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:35PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:29 PM EST (23:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt late this evening, then becoming E 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over the waters on Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 152214
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
514 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over
long island on Friday. High pressure will return for the
weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through
Monday. High pressure will return for Tuesday through
thanksgiving day.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Winter storm warnings and winter wx advisories issued earlier
remain in place, with addition of western suffolk to the
advisory.

Low pressure over eastern nc continues to move up the coast,
while strong high pressure over maine retreats NE while
supplying cold air to the region. Bands of moderate to heavy
snow had overspread most of the region, well ahead of schedule,
except for SE ct, and on the south fork of long island where
precip at hto changed to rain earlier. It is possible that
precip there could briefly change back to snow as a heavier band
moves in from offshore.

As this band lifts out this evening, precip should mix with or
change to rain from nyc east. Areas farther north west however
will likely transition over to light freezing rain as warm dry
slot works its way northward. Up to 2 tenths of an inch ice
accretion fcst for portions of the interior.

Winds between the approaching intensifying low and the strong
high to the NE will ramp up tonight, and expect gusts to at
least 40 mph in nyc metro and along the coast, and higher across
the forks of long island and coastal ct. Issued a high wind
warning for eastern suffolk where gusts up to 60 mph expected
out on the forks, and 45-50 mph farther west into suffolk and
across coastal ct.

The low should be right along the nj coast just S of nyc and
long island by daybreak, with temps rising to the 40s along the
coast and possibly to 50 across the forks of long island.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
As the low pulls away fri, there may be another burst of snow on
the back end across the interior zones NW of nyc as the upper
low tracks thru and the column cools rapidly. A quick additional
inch could accumulate over already icy areas.

For all areas, a quick increase in NW winds is expected after
the passage of the low, with gusts up to 40 mph mainly nyc
metro coastal sections.

High temps should range from the upper 30s lower 40s inland, to
the mid 40s in nyc metro, to the upper 40s lower 50s across
eastern long island which should briefly get into the warm
sector in the morning as the sfc low moves across.

Skies should clear Fri afternoon as the low pulls away. Another
pd of clouds possible late day into the evening Fri with passage
of a weaker upper trough, the mostly clear skies expected later
fri night. Fcst low temps range from the upper 20s well inland
to mid upper 30s nyc metro long island.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Through the long term period the pacific western ridge will remain
while a trough remains across the central and eastern us. Northern
stream flow will predominate as a series of weak impulses rotate
through the trough. One of the stronger waves moves through near
zonal flow Sunday into Monday. Timing of this wave remains a little
uncertain, and will keep probabilities at chance and slight chance.

Colder air will be in place so will have chances of light snow
inland and rain along the coast. Another wave passes generally to
the southwest and south Wednesday as the wave moves through mid and
low level higher pressure. Ensemble and model guidance keeps the
area dry with generally higher pressure dominating as the wave
passes.

Surface high pressure will be over the area for thanksgiving as
another shortwave passes to the north through the longwave trough.

Temperatures will be moderating for thanksgiving, still remaining
below seasonal normals.

A southern stream shortwave doe move under the western ridge Monday
night into Tuesday and quickly tracks through the southern states.

At this time there is no phasing with the northern trough, and this
system is expected to remain south next Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
A coastal storm will impact the region late today and tonight.

Snow has moved into the terminals lowering CIGS to ifr lifr.

Expecting conditions to remain low until the changeover happens
later tonight. Vsby will also go down in any heavier snow bands
that develop.

There is some uncertainty as to how long it takes for the snow
to changeover, but all rain is expected by about 00z in the city
terminals.

For the lower hudson valley terminals, precipitation will begin
as snow before transitioning first to a mix of snow and sleet,
then to a period of freezing rain between 23-02z.

Frozen freezing precipitation will linger the longest at kswf,
which has the potential to see an 8-12 hour period of freezing
rain beginning tonight and lasting into Friday morning.

Ene winds will become gusty late this afternoon into the overnight
hours, with gusts of 35 kts at coastal terminals and gusts of 25-35
kts elsewhere. Gusts should subside briefly towards 12z as
winds begin to shift back to the nw.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi48 min NNE 8 G 14 26°F 54°F1025.8 hPa
44069 20 mi60 min ENE 16 G 18 34°F 43°F34°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi42 min NE 11 G 15 28°F 54°F1026.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi75 min ENE 19 G 23 35°F 55°F3 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi70 min NE 21 G 29 31°F 3 ft31°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi60 min NE 21 G 27 52°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi42 min 51°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi38 minNNE 120.50 miSnow Freezing Fog28°F26°F92%1026 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi34 minENE 100.75 miSnow Fog/Mist34°F33°F97%1024 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi34 minN 00.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1024.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi37 minNNE 100.25 miHeavy Snow Freezing Fog29°F26°F89%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N12N7N10N9N7N3NE3N5N5NE5NE5NE5NE9E8NE9NE9E11NE10NE11NE11NE12NE11NE10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE6E5SE5SE5SE5SE10E13E17
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Tide / Current Tables for Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York
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Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EST     6.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:46 AM EST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     6.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.24.45.56.26.25.54.53.42.41.71.523.14.35.46.26.45.94.93.72.51.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:35 AM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     5.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:20 PM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.83.94.95.65.65.14.23.22.31.61.41.82.73.84.85.65.85.44.53.42.41.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.