Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:13PM Sunday March 26, 2017 2:51 PM EDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1236 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of light rain.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of light rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds around 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1236 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over new england will gradually slide offshore today...allowing a warm front to our south to approach the region tonight into Monday. A couple of weak frontal boundaries will be in the vicinity Monday night and Tuesday...followed by a cold front moving through during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261640
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1240 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over eastern canada and extending into
new england and the northeast will gradually slide east today. A
stationary front well to the southwest will approach as a warm
front tonight and move into the area Monday. Another frontal
system affects the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High
pressure builds to the west Wednesday and Thursday. Another low
pressure system approaches Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Center of canadian high pressure gradually slides to the coast
by late in the day. Temps will run a good 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonable today with cold air damming and cloud cover. MAX and
hourly temp trends have been adjusted down slightly.

A swath of light rain over SE ct will push east by mid
afternoon, coincident with an elevated warm front and
corresponding zone of theta E advection. The threat for icing
has ended.

Some spotty light rain activity possible across the region this
afternoon associated with some weak vort energy... But overall
coverage and probabilities look slight under shortwave ridge
axis.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday/
The closed and nearly cut off low that was over missouri will
continue to open and weaken as the shortwave gets picked up by a
weak southern stream flow, and the wave moves into the eastern
ridge. There remains some timing difference with the movement of
the warm front and low tonight into Monday. Also, with weak
forcing unsure how much precipitation will occur. So have
lowered probabilities into the likely category, with the higher
chance west and north late tonight into Monday.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
With the wave continuing to dampen late Monday into Monday night
with weak ridging ahead of the next shortwave, there may be a
break in the precipitation. However, with the uncertainty, and
to keep continuity have continued with slight chance
probabilities Monday night.

Yet another shortwave approaches in the weak southern stream as
this wave also dampens as wave approaches the mid atlantic.

There are timing differences and whether or not the shortwave
will phase with a digging northern stream shortwave Tuesday.

With uncertainties will keep probabilities at low chance Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with high pressure building
in. Cold air advection appears to be delayed enough to the point
where highs on Wednesday end up above normal, then near-normal for
Thursday. Friday could be completely dry as well, but perhaps some
rainfall sneaks into the western zones by the end of the day. High
temps again near normal. Global models then disagree with the track
of an area of low pressure that could bring rainfall on Saturday.

Have capped pops at 40% for now.

Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/
High pressure will build southward across the area today with a
brief push of drier air this morning. However, daytime heating
will likely lead to the redevelopment of MVFR conditions across
the area, lowering to ifr tonight. There is potential for brief
improvement this evening for a few hours before dark, so
subsequent TAF amendments may be needed. Conditions overnight
may fall below minimums ahead of an approaching warm front and
will need to be monitored.

N-ne winds around 10 kt will become more easterly, with a few
gusts g15-20kt possible in the afternoon at the coastal/nyc
metro terminals.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Monday Ifr/lifr to start. Conds could improve to MVFR orVFR
by late morning or afternoon if the warm front moves through.

Monday night-tue night Ifr likely, lifr possible with low
clouds/fog.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt, possibly stronger.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Marginal easterly SCA gusts are expected on the ocean waters
through tonight. The resultant easterly fetch will allow for
ocean seas to build to 4 to 7 ft. Winds are expected to weaken
and veer SE on Monday as a warm front works into the
waters... But e/se swells will likely keep seas at SCA levels
through the evening.

Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are expected across all waters briefly
on Tuesday before gradually building through the evening in
strengthening southerly flow ahead of a low pressure approaching
from the west. Strong west-northwesterly flow with gusts to 25 kt
will develop on Wednesday as a cold front passes which will
initially allow seas to stay elevated at SCA levels before gradually
shifting east of the ocean waters. Stronger winds may persist into
Thursday before weakening by late week as high pressure briefly
builds over the area.

Hydrology
One quarter of an inch to one half an inch of rainfall is
possible today through Tuesday night.

No hydrologic issues are anticipated through Tuesday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Latest surge guidance indicating that water levels should stay
safely below minor flood thresholds for tonight and Monday
morning high tide.

As astronomical tides rise through the week... Water levels may
come close to minor levels during high tides in the most
vulnerable spots on tue/tue night ahead of approaching low
pressure.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Met
near term... Nv
short term... Met
long term... Jc/met
aviation... Md
marine... Md
hydrology... Met
tides/coastal flooding... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi51 min E 8 G 16 39°F 1031.3 hPa (-1.3)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 16 41°F 39°F1032.5 hPa (-0.9)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi51 min E 9.7 G 12 39°F 2 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi66 min ENE 14 G 18 38°F 2 ft32°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi51 min 2.9 G 8 39°F 39°F1030.9 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi59 minENE 1210.00 miOvercast41°F28°F62%1031.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi55 minE 15 G 2210.00 miOvercast42°F32°F68%1031.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi55 minE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast41°F33°F73%1031.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi58 minE 1010.00 miOvercast41°F28°F62%1032.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6N12N13NE8E6N12
G17
E5NE9NE10NE7NE10NE9NE7NE6NE10NE10NE11NE8NE8E6E7E9E13E15
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1 day agoSW16
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SW10SW11SW8SW5SW6SW9SW9SW8SW8SW6SW4CalmN5CalmNW6NW6N4N7S4NE6
2 days agoNW12
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NW13NW9W5SW3SW9SW5S3CalmCalmCalmE3E3SW7SW5S6S8S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
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Sun -- 04:32 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:40 AM EDT     7.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:54 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     7.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.74.12.40.9-0-0.10.92.54.467.17.26.44.831.30.1-0.30.31.83.75.56.97.4

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM EDT     6.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:07 PM EDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.43.92.410-0.10.62.13.85.46.46.764.62.91.40.2-0.30.11.43.24.96.26.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.