Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:50 AM EDT (10:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 7:40PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 619 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, especially after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 619 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will remain nearly stationary just south of the area today and tonight. Low pressure passes just south tonight. This frontal boundary will be in the vicinity Sunday as high pressure builds to the north. The high drifts off the northern new england coast Sunday as a wave of low pressure approaches Monday, passing Tuesday. High pressure will follow late Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221013
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
613 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will remain nearly stationary just south of
the area today and tonight. Low pressure passes just south
tonight. This frontal boundary will be in the vicinity Sunday as
high pressure builds to the north. The high drifts off the
northern new england coast Sunday as a wave of low pressure
approaches Monday, passing Tuesday. High pressure will follow
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure follows
for Wednesday night into Friday through Thursday. A cold front
will approach Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Dry conditions are anticipated through much, if not the entire
day, 6 pm.

Thunderstorm complex tracking across ohio will need to be
watched, as this moves east southeastward. This is associated
with weak shortwave sfc frontal boundary that approaches late in
the day.

Hot temperatures continue today, but expect dew points to remain
lower than they have been over the past few days. Will maintain
the heat advisory for the metropolitan area, as heat indices
approach 95.

Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon ahead of upstream
shortwave, convection.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
The upper level shortwave passes tonight, with an associated
area of low pressure passing just to the south per model
consensus. As mentioned in the near term section of this
product, thunderstorms associated with this feature will need
to be watched, with best chances impacting the southern or
coastal zones tonight. Greatest instability resides to our
south, but ample instability along with support aloft could
result in a few gusty storms. Heavy downpours are also
expected.

Upstream shortwave approaches Sunday, with frontal boundary out
ahead of it. Meanwhile high pressure builds to our north and
east. In general, any shower activity diminishes in coverage and
intensity late tonight and through the day Sunday. Plenty of
clouds are anticipated, with some sunshine possible Sunday.

Nam WRF hangs onto the ridge longer, and is thus drier Sunday.

Temperatures should cool down some tonight and Sunday, as
heights lower, and cloud cover lingers. 60s 70s at night, and
80s during the day expected.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Exact placement of frontal boundary and low pressure remains in
question Sunday night into Monday, but unsettled weather is
expected, with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing
through Monday, with lowering chances Tuesday as the sharpening
trough moves east. This uncertainty in the models and front
placement is observed in large temp disparity in the MOS this
morning for Monday's highs. At this time, will split the
difference between the cooler NAM numbers, and warmer GFS mos.

Weak ridging will build to the west later Tuesday into
Wednesday as high pressure builds to the west. The upper flow
becomes progressive Wednesday as the western atlantic ridge
weakens and drifts east. Yet another shortwave and cold front
will affect the area Wednesday night into Friday.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
A weak cold front will remain nearly stationary just south of
the area through tonight. Low pressure will pass just south
along this front tonight.

Vfr through today, with local sea breezes developing this
afternoon. Thunderstorm complexes extending from iowa ese into
western ohio before daybreak will need to be watched as they
move eastward late today into tonight. ATTM think tstms with
gusty winds and local downpours are likely for the nyc metros
after 00z, and also kisp by late evening or midnight.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Late tonight Showers tstms still likely mainly for the nyc
metros and long island terminals, with MVFR or lower
conditions and gusty winds possible.

Sunday-Monday night Episodes of showers tstms with MVFR or
lower conds possible.

Tuesday An am shower possible at kgon, otherwiseVFR.

Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
A weak pressure gradient overall will keep winds and seas below
sca (small craft advisory) levels of 25 kt and 5 ft through
Saturday night. However, there is the potential for
thunderstorms Saturday night that could result in larger waves
and higher winds, particularly across the ocean.

Winds will remain below small craft levels Sunday through Wednesday.

However, ocean seas may build to marginal small craft levels Sunday
night into Monday as an easterly flow develops and increases Sunday
into Monday night. Then seas are expected to subside for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Hydrology
There is a chance for heavy rainfall tonight across coastal
locations of NE nj, nyc and long island. However, still believe
that the heaviest precipitation from a convective complex will
be mainly to the south of the region. Rainfall could very well
range from under a tenth of an inch across portions of southern
ct, to between a half to one inch across nyc metro.

Additional rainfall is possible Sunday night into Tuesday.

Hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
With the approach of the new moon (sun), tides will run high
this weekend into early next week. Positive tidal departures of
1 2 to 1 ft will be needed for minor flooding during the night
time high tides during this time.

Minor flooding is possible starting with the high tide cycle
this evening, mainly in the western south shore bays of li. A
bit more widespread minor flooding is possible Sunday night if
an E NE flow develops ahead of an approaching frontal system.

The threat for minor flooding could continue into Monday.

Climate
Saturday will mark the 4th consecutive day of 90+ degrees temps
for much of the nyc nj urban corridor.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Heat advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening for
nyz072>075-176-178.

Nj... Heat advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening for
njz006-104-106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Pw
near term... Pw
short term... Pw
long term... Met pw
aviation... Goodman
marine... Goodman
hydrology... Pw
tides coastal flooding... Pw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi51 min N 1 G 2.9 75°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.0)
44069 20 mi51 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 82°F72°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi51 min NE 4.1 G 6 75°F 78°F1011.4 hPa (-0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi171 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 1 ft72°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi66 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 77°F 71°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi36 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi51 min S 4.1 G 4.1 75°F 75°F1011.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair74°F64°F71%1011.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi55 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1011.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1011.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi58 minN 310.00 miFair70°F64°F82%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW7NW6NW11N6NW10NW7W7W9SW8NW13NW12NW7SW8SW6SW6SW5SW7SW5SW4W4NW7N4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmSE3S5SW4S6S11S8S11
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2 days agoS5SW5SW10SW8SW9S8SW11SW11S11S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EDT     7.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:16 PM EDT     8.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.54.72.80.9-0.4-0.70.11.63.55.36.67.16.55.13.41.70.3-0.30.21.73.65.67.28

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:01 AM EDT     6.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:21 PM EDT     7.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.14.52.71.1-0.2-0.7-0.11.334.766.564.83.31.70.4-0.20.11.33.14.96.57.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.