Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Noyack, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:32PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:29 PM EST (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 639 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Friday afternoon...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Snow, sleet and rain this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 639 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres approaches today and tracks over the waters on Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front approaches on Sunday night then crosses the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noyack, NY
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location: 41, -72.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 151745
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1245 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A coastal storm will impact the region into Friday. High
pressure builds in from the ohio valley over the weekend. A cold
front will likely approach from the great lakes Sunday night
into Monday. High pressure settles across the area Tuesday and
through the middle of the week.

Near term through tonight
A 1009 mb low was analyzed along the SE nc coast. This low will
track up the coast today as high pressure drifts towards the
canadian maritimes, then over or just off long island Fri am,
and past CAPE cod by Fri aftn.

Significant update based on latest radar trend snowing hand of
heavier precip developing from dc metro to southern nj, which
high resolution guidance including the NAM hrrr rap bring into
the area during late afternoon and earlier evening. Despite
easterly flow, temps upstream along the south coast of new
england were in the mid 30s with dewpoints in the lower 20s, so
do not expect too much in the way of maritime moderation at
least into this evening. So the overall trend is for colder and
snowier going into early this evening. NAM may be a bit too
cold in the blyr, but we also started out the day with lower
dewpoints and so greater potential for temps to crash close to
freezing with onset of steady precip this afternoon. Period of
steady snow looks to be heavier and of longer duration than
initially expected, and warmer air aloft does not look to make
it in until about 23z-00z around nyc, and to interior sections
til late evening.

With the above in mind, issued winter storm warnings for the
interior where snowfall amounts have been bumped up into the
4-8 inch range, and winter wx advisories have been extended
into nyc and long island for 2-5 inch snowfall, with the higher
amounts generally farther away from the immediate coast. Also
bumped up amts along the ct coastline, and the coastal zones
could see some 6-inch amounts north of i-95. Timing of snow in
most places should cause significant disruptions to the
evening commute.

Warm dry slot should work its way in tonight, with precip
changing over to sleet and then freezing rain. Up to 2 tenths of
an inch ice accretion fcst for portions of the interior. Storm
total snow and ice graphics are posted.

Bl should warm sufficiently along the coasts to limit the fzra
threat there. Should winds there not behave as fcst and back to
the n, perhaps due to the influence of a developing cstl front,
a period of icing would be possible in nyc and portions of wrn
long island early this eve.

Wind speeds have been increased in the fcst as well. Speeds of
50 kt were evident blw 2kft in the 00z nam. The other modeling
was weaker, so for now a wind advy was not issued. Gusts however
have been increased to 45 mph at the coasts. Peak winds are
tngt, although another burst is possible early Fri as the storm
exits.

Short term Friday
As the low pulls away fri, there may be another burst of snow on
the back end as the upr low tracks thru and the column cools
rapidly. Convective pcpn is suggested by the models. The primary
area of concern for this is orange county, perhaps into putnam,
where a quick additional inch or so could accumulate over
already icy areas.

For all areas, a quick increase in NW winds is expected after
the passage of the low. Borderline advy lvl. For now, wind gusts
are up to 45 mph in the fcst.

Temps are expected to fall thru the day as the colder air spills
in behind the low.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Dry and quiet weather Friday night and into the weekend as high
pressure builds into the area from the ohio valley. Temperatures
will be below normal through the weekend with highs ranging between
the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows ranging between the upper 20s to
low 30s. A cold front then moves across the area from the great
lakes bringing scattered snow showers Sunday night into Monday with
dry weather returning as high pressure builds back into the region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures for Monday and through the
middle of the week will remain below normal.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
A coastal storm will impact the region late today and tonight.

Conditions are quickly beginning to lower to MVFR, then ifr this
afternoon as precipitation overspreads the terminals between
18-20z.

Precipitation should begin as snow for all terminals before
changing to a mix of snow and sleet then ultimately to all rain.

There is some uncertainty as to how long it takes for the snow
to changeover, but all rain is expected by about 00z in the city
terminals.

For the lower hudson valley terminals, precipitation is
expected to begin as snow before transitioning first to a mix of
snow and sleet, then to a period of freezing rain between
22-02z. Frozen freezing precipitation will linger the longest at
kswf, which has the potential to see an 8-12 hour period of
freezing rain beginning tonight and lasting into Friday morning.

Ene winds will become gusty late this afternoon into the overnight
hours, with gusts of 35 kts at coastal terminals and gusts of 25-35
kts elsewhere. Gusts should subside briefly towards 12z as
winds begin to shift back to the nw.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi42 min 49°F1032 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 20 mi60 min ENE 14 G 18 33°F 55°F2 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi45 min ENE 8.9 G 14 31°F 1033.2 hPa19°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi40 min E 14 G 18 40°F 56°F3 ft1031.5 hPa (-3.3)31°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 32°F 53°F1032.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi42 min NE 7 G 9.9 31°F 54°F1033 hPa
44069 45 mi60 min NE 12 G 18 35°F 44°F25°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi48 min ENE 7 G 9.9 30°F 54°F1032.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi37 minNE 910.00 miOvercast34°F24°F67%1032.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi36 minno data mi35°F28°F76%1032.6 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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NW14N8N8N9N8N9N6--------------NE5NE5NE7NE9NE10NE10NE9
1 day agoNW8
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2 days ago3SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmSE4SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Noyack Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Noyack Bay
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Thu -- 05:07 AM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:07 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:36 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.41.71.9221.81.61.310.80.91.21.51.822.12.11.81.51.20.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:45 AM EST     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:39 AM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:20 PM EST     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.3-0.3-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.6-0.20.411.10.90.6-0.1-0.7-1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.