Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:55PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:16 PM EST (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:42AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1019 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Today..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves building to around 2 ft. Rain likely especially after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1019 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build to the south through Saturday, while low pressure passes well to the north on Saturday. A back door cold front will pass through Sunday night, then return north as a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191540
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1040 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build to the south through Saturday, while
low pressure passes well to the north on Saturday. A back door
cold front will pass through Sunday night, then return north as
a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for
Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will return for mid
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High level clouds a bit more opaque than earlier anticipated due
jet energy rounding a departing upper trough across new england.

This may impact high temperatures slightly on the lower side of
the guidance.

Skies should become partly sunny this afternoon. Temps will be
5-10 degrees warmer than those of yesterday, with highs mostly
in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Zonal flow will prevail aloft between a flat trough passing to
the north and ridging along the SE coast. After one more cold
night inland with lows in the teens 20s, and lower 30s for nyc
metro and most of long island, downslope flow WAA will result in
a mild day, with high temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s. It
will however be brisk, as a tightening pressure gradient between
low pressure passing E across quebec and high pressure along
the SE coast generates W to wsw winds gusting up to 35 mph in
nyc and across long island, and 25-30 mph most elsewhere to the
north west.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Zonal upper flow through the weekend, with confluence of pacific
and polar jet to the north of the region, and southern stream
energy tracking through the deep south. Continued return flow
around southern high pressure Sat night into Sunday will allow
for dry and unseasonably mild conditions under a pacific air
mass, with high temps in the lower and mid 40s on Sunday.

A vigorous polar shortwave moving through southeastern canada
Sunday night will likely have a back door cold front pushing
through the region, bringing in a more seasonable canadian
maritime air mass for Monday.

Meanwhile, models in good agreement with the relatively tranquil
pattern being interrupted early next week by the pacific
energy coming into the western states today. This pacific
shortwave will amplify through the SW states, and eventually
phase with subtropical jet energy. The resultant deep closed
low is then expected to gradually track NE across the central
plains and mid mississippi valley Sunday into mon, before
approaching the northeast by Tuesday as it begins phasing with
northern stream energy. There are still some timing amplitude
differences with this energy, which is manifesting in
timing track differences of a resultant frontal system as it
tracks toward the region Monday night into Tuesday. This model
spread should decrease over the next 24 hrs as pacific energy
comes onshore, but subtle model differences may continue
through Sunday until the subtropical and pacific energy phase.

Regardless, there has a been consistent model-to-model and run-
to-run signal for a quick moving moderate to heavy rain event
for Monday night into Tuesday, in response to strong deep
layer lift (region under of nose of 65-70 kt LLJ and left front
quad of a 100+ kt jet streak in difluent upper flow) of a
subtropical moisture plume with pw +2 to + 3 standard deviations
above normal over the region, focused ahead of the cold front
and a surface wave. Before that, still appears there is
potential for a light wintry mix N NW of nyc metro Monday
morning as a warm front moves north with increasing theta-e
advection.

The frontal system pushes through on Tuesday, with breezy
conditions and CAA in its wake, returning dry and more
seasonable temps for Wed thu.

Aviation 16z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure remains centered to the southwest of the region
through tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Winds may briefly strengthen to 10-14 kt this afternoon with an
occasional gust to 18 kt. Otherwise, W flow gradually backs to SW by
this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi77 min W 14 G 16 30°F 3 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi47 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 31°F 35°F1016.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi53 min W 2.9 G 7 30°F 35°F1016.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi37 min W 14 G 15 29°F 1018.7 hPa20°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi47 min 31°F 34°F1016.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi47 min W 6 G 11 34°F 38°F1016 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi24 minW 810.00 miFair34°F15°F46%1016.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi25 minW 910.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1016.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi21 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast35°F16°F46%1016.6 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi24 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F16°F49%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
G18
N9NW13NW10NW12N10
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N8NW10N8NW7NW12NW9NW8NW7N12NW9NW12NW13
G19
NW13NW13NW9NW9NW9NW6
1 day agoCalmE3E534Calm443CalmCalm3--CalmCalmN3NW7NW6NW7NW7NW10NW6NW9NW11
2 days ago------------------------------S4SE7SE8SE9SE3E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM EST     5.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:21 PM EST     6.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:36 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.95.64.63.21.80.70.20.51.534.55.76.36.25.23.72.10.80-0.10.723.54.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:38 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM EST     1.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:06 PM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:00 PM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.50.10.91.51.51.20.7-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.5-1-0.50.211.21.10.80.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.