Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:14PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 426 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely with patchy fog...tapering off after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less in the morning...then 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 426 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front will remain to the south this evening. Low pressure will then move along the front and pass just to the south this evening...and to the east late tonight. High pressure will then build in on Thursday...then move east Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from the central states will impact the region Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure will build in on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 281804
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
204 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A stationary front front will remain to the south today. Low
pressure will pass to the south tonight. High pressure will
build in on Wednesday and Thursday, then pass east Thursday
night. Low pressure approaching from the central states will
impact the region Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure
will build in on Sunday and Monday.

Near term /through tonight/
Adjusted coverage of showers/tstms based on ongoing and upstream
activity, which was fairly well represented in high-res
guidance. Elevated instability is best correlated with 12z nam
tt indices and indicates that a second round of showers/tstms
after the first moving across long island, over southern nj and
se pa, and located NE of the sfc low centered between washington
dc and baltimore, should hold together and move into nyc metro
and long island from late afternoon into the early evening as
the low moves ene toward or just south of the area,
fog limited ATTM mainly to the higher elevations and also in
the valleys well NW of nyc per sfc obs.

The models were in good agreement so a blend was used for
temperatures through tonight.

Short term /Wednesday/
Dry weather with a northwesterly breeze. Despite a cooler
airmass in place, temperatures will actually be warmer than
Tuesday because of deep mixing. Mostly sunny skies are progged,
although some fair weather convective clouds will be possible if
they are able to overcome the subsidence. A blend of the
guidance was used for temperatures.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
The extended period will feature a split flow across the continental
united states with systems moving through active northern and
southern streams. As a result, even through there are similarities
in the longwave and overall solutions, the details of the forecast
have become more uncertain, and inconsistencies from run to run have
increased. Currently there is now little to no phasing of systems
impacting the east, and in particular the region, Thursday night
into Saturday, and yet another system Monday night into Tuesday.

There are now more uncertainties as to the depth of the lows,
timing, and tracks.

For late Thursday night through Saturday night have long period of
probabilities, and even likely probabilities from Friday into
Saturday. This is likely too long a period however, with the
uncertainties wanted to maintain some consistency with prior
forecasts. Both the ECMWF and GFS have some lingering cold air
across the northern portions of the CWA Thursday night before warm
advection increases. So have kept a mix of snow and rain inland.

Canadian high pressure builds in for late Saturday night into
Monday, and possibly Tuesday if ridging remains as per the gfs.

The ECMWF is quicker to weaken and shift the ridge off shore
Tuesday. Have introduced a low chance of precipitation for
Tuesday.

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/
A couple of fronts remains near the region through this
evening. A cold front pushes across the region overnight. High
pressure then builds into the region on Wednesday.

Ifr or less continues through at least 06z in low stratus, fog
and periods of rain. Winds will generally be less than 10kt from
the east-northeast.

After 06z, a cold front will push across the region, with winds
becoming northerly, then northwesterly and increasing to
10-15kt by 12z Wednesday. At this time, conditions will
gradually improve toVFR with mostly clear skies for Wednesday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi49 min ENE 16 G 18 40°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi46 min E 4.1 G 8.9 44°F 40°F1012.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi46 min ESE 8 G 8.9 40°F 1012.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi49 min E 16 G 19 39°F 2 ft38°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi34 min E 9.9 G 11 41°F 40°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi46 min E 5.1 G 7 44°F 40°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NE9
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NE6
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SE10
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NE8
G13
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G16
NE5
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NE7
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G16
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G14
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi38 minVar 310.00 miLight Rain43°F43°F100%1011.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi41 minE 810.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F89%1012.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi42 minE 1110.00 miOvercast41°F39°F93%1012.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi38 minENE 810.00 miOvercast44°F44°F100%1011.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi41 minESE 510.00 miLight Rain43°F42°F97%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalmCalm43SE3353SE5SE66--SE455Calm43
1 day ago55E7E733E5Calm334E7E5E635SE9S6S4SW5SW8SW6N8N7
2 days ago3SE36CalmN4N5N43Calm333353354E5E9
G15
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G15
E10
G14
5E7
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:01 PM EDT     6.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:07 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.964.32.40.7-0.5-0.8-0.11.43.356.36.86.34.93.11.3-0.1-0.7-0.312.94.86.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.60.31.31.81.61.20.3-0.7-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.70.11.11.81.81.50.8-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.