Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:47PM Saturday September 23, 2017 2:21 PM EDT (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:57AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1254 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1254 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. The remnant low of jose will meander and weaken southeast of long island into early next week, as high pressure slowly builds from the west. The high will slowly slide offshore toward the middle of next week as hurricane maria tracks north off of the southeast coast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on maria. A cold front will approach from the west late on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231650
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1250 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
The remnant low of jose will dissipate well to the southeast
over the next couple of days, while high pressure to the
northwest will be in control through the first half of next
week. Meanwhile, hurricane maria is forecast by the national
hurricane center to pass to the southeast and remain away from
the local area. A cold front will pass through on Thursday,
followed by building high pressure on Friday.

Near term through tonight
Sunny for the rest of this afternoon as jose remnant low drifts
east. Will still see a N breeze gusting to 20 mph at times.

Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s will make for a comfortably
warm, not too humid air mass, as high temps reach the 80s,
warmest from nyc metro north west and across the interior ct
river valley.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions
as heights aloft continue to rise. H8 temps will approach 18c,
with highs 85 to 90 across much of the area on Sunday, except
for the immediate coast where it will be in the lower 80s.

Readings will be 10 to 15 degrees above avg with few if any
clouds. See climate section below for potential records.

Gradually building swells from distant hurricane maria will
produce a moderate to high risk of rip currents on Sunday.

Long term Monday through Friday
A anomalous upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough
over the western states, and a highly amplified ridge across
the east. Hurricane maria will track slowly north through the
week. The global models are now all pointing toward a more
westward solution for maria as the weakness provided by the
remnants of jose appears to be less of a factor than it was 24
hours ago, with the upper ridge expanding eastward across the
western atlantic. This in turn could cause a more westward track
for maria. Eventually though, a strong upper trough approaches
from the upper midwest and great lakes to deflect the system to
the south and east of the area. There is still some uncertainty
and timing issues at this juncture in the forecast. Please refer
to the latest advisories from the national hurricane center for
the official forecast on maria.

Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably
warm week and a dry start. At the moment, there continues to be
a low chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday as moisture
works in ahead of maria and the upper ridge begins to break down
with the approach of an upper trough. Depending on the future
track of maria, some of this moisture could interact with a cold
frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. A return to more
seasonable weather is forecast on Friday behind the cold front.

Due to long period swells from maria, there will be a prolonged
period of rough surf at the ocean beaches.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure builds in from the west into Sunday morning, as
post tropical cyclone jose continues to slowly weaken as it
drifts southeast well off of CAPE cod.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Northerly winds will gust to 15-20 kt across the area late this
morning through this afternoon before diminishing towards
sunset. The exception to this is kgon where gusts will be
slightly higher, in the 20-25 kt range. Winds then become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday-Monday Vfr.

Monday night-Wednesday MVFR or lower possible and scattered
showers are possible. E-se winds g15-20kt possible Wednesday.

Marine
Based on obs have converted straight SCA for winds seas into
one for hazardous seas only. Ocean seas should subside below 5
ft for a long enough time tonight into Sunday to warrant
temporary cancellation of the scahs for most of the ocean
waters, beginning this evening W of fire island inlet, and
later this evening from fire island inlet to moriches inlet.

Incoming swell from hurricane maria should return ocean seas
in that latter area to 5 ft daytime Sunday.

Swells from a maria will build thereafter through to 6-11 ft by
tue night, highest east of fire island inlet.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems anticipated. The interaction of a cold
front with tropical moisture late Wednesday into Thursday will
need to be watched.

Climate
The following are record high temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record high temperature forecast high temperature
----------------------------- -------------------------
central park... ... ..89 (1959) 89
laguardia... ... ... ..89 (1959) 88
kennedy... ... ... ... .88 (1970) 87
islip... ... ... ... ... 83 (2009) 86
newark... ... ... ... ..92 (1959) 90
bridgeport... ... ... .87 (1959) 84
the following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record high minimum temperature forecast minimum temperature
------------------------------- ----------------------------
central park... ... ..74 (1970) 70
laguardia... ... ... ..73 (1970) 71
kennedy... ... ... ... .71 (1970) 69
islip... ... ... ... ... 69 (1970) 65
newark... ... ... ... ..74 (1970) 68
bridgeport... ... ... .71 (2011) 66

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt this
evening for anz355.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Sunday
for anz350.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm edt this
evening for anz353.

Synopsis... Goodman dw
near term... Goodman
short term... Goodman dw
long term... Dw
aviation... Feb
marine... Goodman maloit
hydrology... Goodman dw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi67 min N 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 1 ft74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi52 min NNE 13 G 18 80°F 72°F1016.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi52 min N 8 G 12 82°F 71°F1015.8 hPa
44069 24 mi52 min NNE 9.7 G 14 77°F 70°F65°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi37 min NNE 7.8 G 12 79°F 60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi52 min N 5.1 G 8.9 79°F 67°F1015.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi52 min 72°F 68°F1015.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi92 min 68°F 62°F5 ft1016 hPa (+1.4)64°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE14
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi26 minN 710.00 miFair84°F64°F53%1016.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi29 minN 13 G 2010.00 miFair81°F62°F53%1016.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi30 minN 710.00 miFair86°F62°F45%1015.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi26 minNNE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds84°F64°F51%1015.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi29 minN 13 G 1610.00 miFair85°F61°F45%1016 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN11
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Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
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Sat -- 01:40 AM EDT     6.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:57 PM EDT     6.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.26.16.35.54.22.81.40.40.20.82.13.75.16.26.66.14.93.41.90.70.10.31.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     1.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-1-1.5-1.7-1.4-1-0.30.61.31.51.410.2-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.700.91.31.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.