Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:17PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 359 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft...subsiding to 1 ft or less late. Rain until late afternoon...then chance of showers late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night.
ANZ300 359 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure system passes to the south...then southeast through tonight. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the west Tuesday then crosses the area Tuesday night. A weak cold front then moves over the tri-state from Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure builds ff the mid-atlantic coast Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the west Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 290902
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
502 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system approaches passes through into this
evening. A weak cold front approaches from the west Tuesday,
then crosses the area Tuesday night... Followed by another on
Wednesday. High pressure then builds to the south through
Thursday night. Another cold front approaches on Friday then
slowly crosses the area Friday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Light rain showers continue to move north and east this morning
in association with frontal system approaching the area from
the west. Two areas of low pressure will be the focus of
precipitation over the region. One weak, broad low to our
northwest, near the eastern great lakes region, and another
stronger low developing well east of the DELMARVA peninsula that
is forecast to pass well south and east of the area. Much of the
tri-state will be caught in between these two lows, leading to
relatively heavier rainfall for portions of the lower hudson
valley (closer to the low near the great lakes) southern
and eastern portions of the area, such as northeast new jersey,
new york city and long island (closer to the low offshore).

Connecticut should see lower amounts as they will be farther
away from both lows. In general, rainfall amounts have been
lowered to between a 0.25"-0.50". However, amounts could end up
even lower than this, but not confident on lowering them that
drastically given uncertainty in placement of lows.

Unseasonably cool temperatures today as clouds and rain keep
temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 for highs, some 10 to
15 degrees below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Frontal system pushes east of the area tonight, along with the
coastal storm. After some lingering showers early this evening,
conditions should remain dry. However, drizzle and fog may
develop overnight, with low level moisture trapped under an
inversion.

Another front approaches slowly from the west. Chances for rain
increase from west to east during the day Tuesday. Enough
instability for some thunder, but nothing severe expected.

Temperatures continue to be below normal.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The models continue to have differences in how they handle the very
broad closed low that will be over SE canada Tuesday night through
Thursday night. As a result they also differ in the strength and
timing of shortwaves rotating around the base of the low, and hence
on the precise timing of precipitation during this time frame.

However, do have likely pops in for Tuesday night, as the models do
agree there should be some measurable rainfall across the region
then, but do have differences in timing during the night. Lows
Tuesday night should be a few degrees above normal.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night have mainly chance pops across
northern zones and slight chance pops across southern zones. With
showalter indices progged to 0 to -2, also have a slight chance of
thunder in for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Highs Wednesday and
lows Wednesday night should be a few degrees above normal as well.

Zonal flow sets up Thursday and Thursday night, and it appears the
region and with significant shortwaves progged to the NE and NW during
this time frame, have gone with a dry forecast then.

The model differences become even more noticeable Friday-Saturday.

For Friday, do have chance pops throughout by afternoon and continue
through Friday evening (along with a slight chance of thunder). Then
limit pops to slight chance from late Friday night-Saturday morning.

Then go with a dry forecast late Saturday Saturday night as both the
gfs and ECMWF show the core of the closed low to the NE then.

The new ECMWF has joined the 00z GFS in keeping Sunday dry, but
noting it previously had a coastal low approaching (now just
suppressed farther s), do have slight chance pops for Sunday.

Temperatures Thursday through Saturday night will feature near
normal highs and lows a few degrees above normal. Highs Sunday are
currently forecast to be a few degrees below normal.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
A frontal system will approach late tonight into Monday, while
weak surface high pressure remains in place and weak low
pressure passes to the south this morning. With the surface high
remaining in place and dry air still to be overcome especially
ne of the nyc metro terminals, this will make for a very
difficult forecast in terms of flight category. Rain over nj and
eastern pa has brought widespread ifr CIGS to those areas, but
do not think this will be the case in the nyc metro, with MVFR
cigs developing after daybreak and remaining in that category at
least through the morning. There is still a chance that ifr
cigs could develop late this afternoon or this evening as winds
diminish and back a little more NE following passage of the weak
low to the south.

Removed earlier mention of thunder, as instability fueling
storms over central pa should weaken and come to a halt just
west of the area this morning. Showers moving in from the west
could still bring tempo ifr vsby to the nyc metros toward
midday.

High confidence in winds into early this afternoon, with
occasional g18-20kt possible this morning at some coastal
terminals. Low to medium confidence on wind direction later this
afternoon into tonight, which could range anywhere from NE to
se.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi44 min E 16 G 19 54°F 2 ft52°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi41 min ESE 5.1 G 8.9 54°F 60°F1013.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi41 min E 7 G 12 54°F 1012.9 hPa
44069 24 mi74 min E 18 G 21 58°F 64°F58°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi44 min ENE 16 G 21 56°F 2 ft55°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi44 min 57°F 55°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi29 min E 16 G 22 53°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.4)50°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi39 min 54°F 55°F5 ft1012.3 hPa (+0.0)54°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi41 min ENE 2.9 G 6 53°F 58°F1014.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi41 min 53°F 54°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi93 minVar 49.00 miLight Rain55°F55°F100%1012.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi36 minENE 710.00 miOvercast55°F52°F90%1013.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi37 minE 144.00 miRain Fog/Mist56°F52°F87%1013.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi93 minE 79.00 miOvercast55°F54°F96%1012.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi36 minE 72.50 miRain Fog/Mist53°F51°F93%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE6SE7SE11S11S9S10S10SE8SE855E7SE66SE553--E44E646
1 day agoNW7N8N7NW7W5S6S6SE7SE5SE5SE6SE5SE7SE5S6S5S4S6SE6S4SE3S4SE4SE3
2 days agoNW8NW7W10NW8W8W8W11S5W16
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NW9NW6N10N4W3N5CalmNW5W3W4NW3W4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM EDT     7.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:57 PM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
56.37.16.85.742.20.6-0.4-0.60.21.63.34.966.45.94.73.21.70.60.10.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.4-1.2-1.8-2-1.7-1.2-0.50.41.21.51.40.90-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.5-1-0.40.41.31.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.