Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:42PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 10:26 AM EDT (14:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:47PMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 950 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
This afternoon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 950 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as hurricane maria tracks northeast off the mid atlantic coast. Refer to statements form the national hurricane center for the latest on maria. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in from the west through late week. Another cold front passes through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in through Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261320
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
920 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as
hurricane maria tracks northeast off the mid atlantic coast.

Refer to statements form the national hurricane center for the
latest on maria. A cold front moves through the region
Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in
from the west through late week. Another cold front passes
through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast remains on track this morning with fog lifting and
skies gradually clearing. Stratus, mainly east of the hudson,
is expected to mix out by early afternoon leaving just thin
cirrus resulting a sunny afternoon.

High surf and rip current potential continues along the south
shore of long island.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Swells from maria will continue to produce high, dangerous surf
through Wednesday and quite likely dangerous rip currents as
well, with swells progged to around 10 ft 14 seconds at 44025
and 10-11ft 14 seconds at 44017. As a result have extended the
high surf advisory for all atlantic beaches through 22z
Wednesday and have continued with the high rip current risk for
tonight.

Otherwise, the northern stream ridge axis exits to the northeast
and wsw flow sets up aloft for Wednesday. There could be a weak
700 hpa shortwave passing Wednesday afternoon, so have a slight
chance of showers then, otherwise it should be dry.

The fog stratus deck should return tonight, and likely will be
more extensive than it was last night early this morning. The
main thing that is unknown is how dense the fog will be will
the area be more mainly just stratus. So for now playing things
as patchy fog, but definitely cannot rule out areas of dense
fog, especially over eastern areas. Lows tonight should be
around 10-15 degrees above normal.

This deck should be slower to erode on Wednesday than today. As
a result, even with low level temperatures forecast to be a
degree or so warmer than today, did not change high temperatures
much from today. Once again, continue to have a bust potential
on the low side (by 5-10 degrees) if the stratus deck does not
erode at all.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
moisture associated with maria tries to sneak in mainly over the
eastern zones. Will go with low chances of showers for most areas,
but focused more to the east of the city.

Aside from a lingering shower possible early in the morning in the
vicinity of the twin forks, Thursday should be dry as high pressure
builds in. Leaned towards the warmer side of guidance for high
temperatures based on forecast 850-900mb temps during the afternoon.

It will begin to feel less muggy as well with dewpoints falling to
around 50 by the end of the day. A return to seasonable temperatures
then follows for Friday as high pressure remains over the region.

Global models differ in the timing of the next cold front, but best
guess right now is that it moves through at some point during Friday
night with a slight chance of showers. An upper trough cold pool
aloft follows for Saturday so some instability showers are possible.

Kept pops at slight chance for this. Highs for Saturday mostly 65-70.

High pressure continues to build in for Sunday and Monday with dry
weather and high temperatures generally around 70.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Weakening high pressure remains across the region through the
taf period.

Flight categories primarily in the ifr lifr range with
visibilities gradually improving east of the city terminals.

Low ceilings will continue through 15-16z before improving to
vfr. Kisp and kgon may take a bit longer to improve. Low
ceilings return tonight after 00z.

Ne E winds this morning and shift to the SE from the late
morning into early afternoon. Speeds will be 10 kt or less
through the day.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi41 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 67°F 67°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi38 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 74°F1017.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi44 min S 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 72°F1017.3 hPa
44069 24 mi71 min E 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 73°F67°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi26 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 68°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi38 min Calm G 1 68°F 69°F1017.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi38 min 67°F 67°F1017.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi36 min 64°F 65°F10 ft1018.2 hPa (+0.7)64°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi31 minN 310.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1018 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi34 minNNE 47.00 miOvercast69°F66°F90%1018.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi35 minESE 55.00 miFog/Mist69°F66°F93%1018 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi31 minE 510.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1017.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi34 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F93%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4S5SE6SE8S6SE7SE5SE3SE5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalm3N3
1 day agoE435SE9E5SE5SE4SW4S4CalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34
2 days agoN12
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N11N7N12N7N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N55N5

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:53 AM EDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:12 PM EDT     6.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.54.65.45.65.24.33.12.11.41.11.42.43.54.75.665.853.82.71.711

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:10 AM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.7-0.40.10.81.21.20.90.4-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.3-1-0.8-0.40.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.