Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:19 PM EDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 418 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms this evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 418 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across the waters overnight into early Tuesday. This will be followed by weak high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday night. A cold front will then push through the area waters Wednesday. High pressure will build over the waters Thursday, then slide offshore through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182024
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
424 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the region late tonight through
early Tuesday. Weak high pressure then builds in Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A cold front moves through the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night. High pressure then builds over the area
through Thursday night then slides offshore Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front may approach Sunday and move across the
area on Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Pre-frontal trough ahead of cold front will be moving into the
region for this evening and will act as a focus for developing
showers and thunderstorms. However, there is vertical limits to
development with residual ridging aloft. The ridge eventually
becomes flattens and gives way to an approaching trough late
tonight.

In terms of hazards, heat advisory remains for NE nj and the
lower hudson valley; this will end at 8pm.

Other hazard would just be associated with the thunderstorms
with the cold front moving across. Not expecting severe; SPC has
interior parts of the region in marginal risk (5%) for severe wind
gusts.

Thinking here some thunderstorm activity could have strong wind
gusts of 30-40 kt possible but bulk shear values are limited
this far south with higher values near the base of the mid and
upper level trough.

Also thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.

Pwats near 2 inches will enable for thunderstorms to tap into a
moisture rich environment.

The higher chances for thunderstorms will be with the remaining low
level instability. The instability will be higher near nyc and
locations to the north and west. This instability really starts to
decrease more overnight. That time though is when the central low
and cold frontal boundary will be pushing through so enough forcing
will be there to keep for some thunderstorm activity for a part of
the overnight. Convective activity trends downward after the
cold front passage towards daybreak Tuesday
a high risk of rip currents remains at atlantic beaches into
this evening.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Weak high pressure builds in from the great lakes Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The trough aloft moves into the canadian
maritimes Tuesday and into northern atlantic Tuesday night. The
ridging in the mid and upper levels stays anchored in the
southeast us leaving the local region with westerly zonal flow.

Rain showers come to an end during the morning behind the cold
front.

More stable and drier air moves in behind the front during the day
with deep N NW flow in the atmosphere.

This will provide downslope warming and while less humid with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. This will be from daytime mixing
up to around or a little higher than 5 kft. The highs were taken
from the relatively warmer mav guidance ranging from mid 80s to near
90. However with aforementioned less humid conditions, apparent
temperatures will be right near actual temperatures.

For Tuesday, there will be moderate risk of rip currents at the
ocean beaches, and high risk for rip currents again for
southeast suffolk ocean beaches.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure will track along a boundary Wednesday afternoon. This
could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire
area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Some of the
thunderstorms are capable to produce torrential downpours along with
gusty winds. As the boundary moves offshore Wednesday night showers
will tapper off. Dry conditions expected on Thursday and into early
Saturday. Unsettled weather then likely later Saturday and into the
beginning of the work week with some rumbles of thunder mainly
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Temperatures during this time period will be near normal.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
A cold front will approach this evening, and cross tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north tonight.

Sparse tsra threat for nyc nj terminals and n&w, with brief
MVFR ifr vsby and gusty winds, will likely be from the line of
scattered thunderstorms across N central pa as of 20z. Have
continued to mention via vcts, with low confidence on how well
this activity hold together into the city terminals. An
additional round of showers likely, with perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm, as the front passes through nyc metro towards
midnight.

Otherwise, potential for a brief period of sct MVFR ifr stratus at
kisp or kgon this evening.

Gusty s-sw flow of 10-15 kt with gusts 20 kt into early evening,
except sea breezes at kjfk klga kbdr kisp with sustained winds 15-20
kt and gusts approaching 25 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi34 min SSW 16 G 18 73°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi49 min SW 8 G 9.9 74°F 65°F1011.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi55 min SSW 8.9 G 17 77°F 62°F1010.2 hPa
44069 24 mi49 min SSW 19 G 23 71°F 75°F71°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi39 min SW 16 G 18 68°F 1011.4 hPa61°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 17 78°F 66°F1010.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi49 min 69°F 64°F1011.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi89 min SSW 18 G 19 66°F 62°F3 ft1013 hPa (-2.6)65°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi23 minSSW 14 G 2710.00 miFair77°F66°F71%1011.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi26 minSW 16 G 2310.00 miFair75°F64°F71%1012.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi27 minSSW 19 G 2510.00 miFair and Breezy81°F64°F58%1010.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi23 minSSW 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F64°F58%1011.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi26 minVar 510.00 miFair78°F66°F67%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S6S6S5SW7SW6SW7SW6SW5S6SW4S7S7SW8SW12S9S15
G19
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1 day agoSW11SW6SW7SW6SW5SW4SW3SW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN53NW3NW5--S8S8S6S8S8
2 days agoN9NW6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W6W3W3W5NW7N7NW8N8
G16
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G19
NW8S10SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:15 AM EDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:35 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT     6.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:04 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.34.96.16.86.55.43.92.20.8-0.2-0.30.51.93.556.16.55.94.73.31.90.70.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:01 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:19 PM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.6-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-1-0.40.51.21.51.30.90-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.4-1-0.50.31.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.