Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:37PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:56 PM EST (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:03PMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 704 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
ANZ300 704 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the southern states races northeast tonight and passes across the waters Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the waters from the west Wednesday into Wednesday night. The high retreats to coastal new england Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south. The low moves along the coast and through the waters Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 130026
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
726 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the southern states races northeast tonight
and passes over or just east of long island Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds into the area from the west Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The high retreats to coastal new england
Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south. The low
moves along the coast and through the area Thursday night and
Friday. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday as a
low passes to the north Saturday night. High pressure returns
Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Minor adjustments were made to forecast temperatures, dewpoints,
cloud coverage and pops for rain. With some radiational cooling
this evening, some locations are cooler than forecast. Min
temperatures will likely be set by late this evening and before
most of the rain begins. Otherwise, no other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

A highly amplified, yet progressive flow will send yet another
fast moving coastal low northeast from the southern states
tonight and up into the area near daybreak Tuesday. There
are subtle differences in the guidance as has been noted the
last several days with the low track. In general though, a
northeast track across long island and southern ct, or just
east can be expected. This difference though will have impacts
on the rain axis and potential for higher wind gusts up to 30
mph in the morning. The consensus though takes a strong low-
level jet southeast of the area. The other concern is always
how much momentum transfer there will be as the jet moves
nearby. Low-level temperatures profiles are inverted as a
warm conveyor belt ahead of the low results in strong warm
advection with rain overspreading the area near or just after
midnight. The best forcing should confine the highest rainfall
totals from nyc and points east with the potential for up to
1 1 2 inches and locally up to 2 inches.

Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s well north and
west of nyc as well as within the pine barrens on long island
early this evening and into the low to mid 40s elsewhere. The
temperatures will then gradually rise after midnight with warm
air aloft mixing down to the low levels with any precipitation.

Some cold air damming will be evident in the valley locations
and will depend on the exact low track. There is a low
probability of any frozen precipitation.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Steady rain and gusty winds at the coast early lifts to the
northeast by early afternoon. Strong cold advection ensues in
the afternoon with NW winds gusting up to 30 mph. These gusts
will likely carry over into the night.

Clouds will be slow to decrease on the backside of the low in
the afternoon with upper jet energy remaining in place.

Thereafter, clearing will ensue from NW to SE Tuesday night.

Forecast highs on Tuesday will be normal, ranging from the upper
40s inland, to the lower and mid 50s at the coast. Lows will
drop to below freezing across much of the area Tuesday night
with the possible exception of the nyc metro. Readings will be
about 10 degrees below normal.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Split upper flow develops Tuesday night into Wednesday as a southern
stream upper low becomes closed and cutoff from the longwave flow as
a northern stream trough passes to the north. A strong northwest
flow behind the low and strong high pressure building to the west
will bring in much colder air. There are hints that some lake effect
streamers may come within the lower hudson valley Wednesday
afternoon, however, left this out at this time. With the cold
airmass high settling over the region Wednesday night, and winds
decoupling, with clear skies overnight temperatures are expected to
be 10-15 degrees below normal.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Thursday with the
timing and placement of the southern stream upper low. This low will
be drifting northward, with the ECMWF slowest of the guidance, near
to the timing of the nam, and the GFS slightly faster. Leaned more
toward a slower solution. The southern low eventually phases with
the northern stream and opens up by 18z Friday. At that time a
surface low will be deepening along the northeast coast, and then
quickly passing to the northeast Friday afternoon.

The other issue will be precipitation type. Warmer air will be
streaming in aloft ahead of the low Thursday, while high pressure to
the north retreats. The question will be how quickly the surface
warms as high pressure potentially noses into the region. With a
developing easterly flow the surface along the coast warms, and kept
liquid precipitation across the southern zones. However, if the cold
air does not retreat, mixed snow and sleet will be possible even at
the coast. At this time, a light accumulating snow, mixed with sleet
will be possible across the higher elevations of northeastern new
jersey and the lower hudson valley. Inland may briefly go over to
all rain below colder air wraps around the low Thursday night. As
the 700 mb and surface low track over the region 06z to 12z Friday
precipitation may increase to moderate levels. The low moves quickly
Friday and may be lingering precipitation too long, into Friday
night, as the best forcing quickly passes to the north Friday
afternoon.

The northern stream then predominates Friday night into early next
week. One shortwave passes to the north Saturday night into Sunday.

Will leave area dry Friday night through Monday, however, if the
wave digs a little farther south, there will be chances of
precipitation, mainly to the north at that time.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
A developing low tracks up the mid-atlantic coast tonight. The
low then tracks near or over the south shore of long island
Tuesday morning, then tracks northeast to nova scotia by Tuesday
evening.

MVFR develops around just after midnight from W to e, with
conditions becoming ifr by an hour or so ahead of the morning
push. MVFR conditions should return early Tuesday afternoon with
vfr conditions by mid afternoon.

Light and variable winds this evening, except SW winds becoming
se around 10kt at kgon. Winds overnight Tuesday morning mainly
light and variable except se-e at less than 10kt klga kjfk kbdr
and SE around 10kt at kisp kgon. Llws likely kjfk kbdr kisp kgon
for at least portions of the overnight hours early Tuesday
morning. Winds become n-nw around midday - with speeds around
10kt. Winds back to the nw-wnw 10-15g20-25kt by mid-late
afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi71 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 56°F1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 56°F1028.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi44 min S 6 G 9.9 47°F 55°F1027.8 hPa
44069 24 mi71 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 48°F38°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi56 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 48°F 36°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi41 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi71 min SW 6 G 8 49°F 1029.7 hPa36°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi66 min SSE 12 G 14 51°F 57°F2 ft1029.1 hPa (+0.0)42°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi38 min N 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 50°F1028.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi38 min 49°F 54°F1028.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi60 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F34°F79%1028.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1029.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi64 minSSE 410.00 miFair46°F33°F61%1028.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%1028.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair42°F34°F73%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW7S86SW7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:51 AM EST     5.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:05 PM EST     6.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:26 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.55.75.34.231.91.10.81.22.33.64.95.86.25.94.93.62.31.20.50.61.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:04 AM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:10 AM EST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:38 PM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:48 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.7-0.30.311.31.310.4-0.5-1-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.40.40.910.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.