Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 5:22 AM   Moonset 8:47 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405081415;;829524 Fzus51 Kcle 080741 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 341 am edt Wed may 8 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-081415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 341 am edt Wed may 8 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 081739 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 139 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move east through this morning before a weak area of high pressure briefly builds over the area by this afternoon. Another warm front will lift north towards the area tonight as a series of disturbances continue to impact the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
9:15 AM Update...
A weak area of high pressure will continue to build overhead through the day today allowing for clear skies and quiet weather. Anticipate for highs to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s.

7:40 AM Update...
A thin band of fog has developed along a residual boundary in Northwest Ohio and some brief dense fog to around one quarter of a mile will move through Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa counties and have a brief SPS. Otherwise, clouds are departing to the east this morning and high pressure should allow for a dry weather day with above normal temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure centered over the western Great Lakes will continue to track east, moving a cold front east across the area this morning.
This boundary will stall somewhere south of the area as high pressure pushes south today. This high pressure will allow for a period of dry conditions through this evening before the aforementioned stalled boundary begins to lift north as a warm front. Along this boundary, increased frontogenesis along with an upper level shortwave pushing east will allow for the return of showers and possible thunderstorms to the area, gradually moving from south to north tonight into Thursday. The low pressure at the surface is expected to move east across the Ohio River Valley, which should allow for the entire CWA to remain on the cold side of the low, ultimately limiting the potential for any thunderstorms to become severe. The overall track of the low will not be moving very fast, keeping the potential for showers and thunderstorms through the end of this period. Some areas may receive locally heavy rainfall which may result in nuisance flooding, but overall impacts should remain minimal.

High temperatures today will remain warm in the mid to upper 70s.
Tonight, lows will drop into the low 50s. Thursday high temperatures will be much cooler with highs only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. The exception to this will be NW OH where an easterly flow off of Lake Erie will result in cooler temperatures, likely in the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A trough aloft associated with an unusually-cold air mass for May 9th-10th shifts SE'ward across the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley Thursday night through Friday. At the surface, a trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and our CWA due in part to the expansion of relatively-warm lake-modified air as the unusually-cold air mass advances across the lakes. Periodic and scattered rain showers are expected due in part to the following: Moist isentropic ascent preceding the trough axis aloft; the potential for lake-enhanced precip over and generally south of Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday morning amidst weak lake-induced instability over ~55F Lake Erie, a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column, and the seeder-feeder process; and the expectation of self-destructive sunshine during the afternoon through early evening hours of Friday. Overnight lows should reach the lower 40's to 50F around daybreak Friday and be followed by afternoon highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's.

A brief window of fair weather is expected Friday evening as a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft moves E'ward through our region and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However, rain shower chances return to much of northern OH after midnight as a trough at the surface and aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances begin to overspread that part of our CWA from the western Great Lakes and vicinity, and moist isentropic ascent aloft precedes the axes of the shortwave disturbances. Overnight lows should reach the upper 30's to mid 40's in NW PA and the 40's to lower 50's in northern OH.

The trough aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances traverse the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley generally from west to east and the attendant surface trough affects our region on Saturday through Saturday night. The trough aloft will reinforce the aforementioned unusually-cold air mass. Periodic and scattered showers are expected due to moist isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave trough axes and the occurrence of self-destructive sunshine late Saturday morning through early evening. Thermals associated with the self-destructive sunshine may release enough surface-based CAPE to trigger isolated thunderstorms. Saturday afternoon highs should reach the upper 50's to lower 60's in NW PA and mainly the lower to mid 60's in northern OH. Overnight lows should reach the 40F to 50F range around daybreak Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Odds favor fair weather on Sunday through Sunday night as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds E'ward across our CWA and vicinity. However, subtle shortwave disturbances may ripple through the ridge aloft and be accompanied by isolated and occasional rain showers. Afternoon highs should reach the 60's on Sunday and be followed by overnight lows in the 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Monday. The ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward on Monday and be followed by the E'ward passage of another/stronger shortwave trough and attendant surface trough Monday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with the approach and passage of the trough at the surface and aloft. Low-level WAA ahead of the trough's axis should contribute to Monday afternoon highs reaching the mid 60's to mid 70's. Overnight lows should reach the mid 40's to mid 50's around daybreak Tuesday. Yet another ridge at the surface and aloft should build E'ward into our region by Tuesday. A weak synoptic MSLP gradient and sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding Lake Erie should allow a lake breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening and penetrate several miles inland. Sufficient boundary layer moisture and instability may allow the lake breeze front to trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs should reach mainly the 70's as net low-level WAA persists on the synoptic scale.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
VFR conditions under weak high pressure will continue through the first part of the TAF period with mainly clear skies. Our next system will lift a warm front northeast across terminals early Thursday morning and into the day Thursday. Cloud cover will increase ahead of the warm front. Lower confidence in coverage of rain showers along the warm front but will likely see MVFR ceilings build in after 12Z/Thu from west to east.
Better chances and coverage for rain showers will occur as the parent low pressure system glides across Northern Ohio during the day Thursday. Can't rule out embedded thunder in these showers during the day Thursday, though the better instability looks to remain south of the local area.

Westerly winds with speeds 10-15 knots and gusts to 25+ knots will persist through sunset tonight. Expecting for higher westerly winds and gusts to quickly diminish around 00Z this evening. Winds turn northeasterly overnight tonight with wind speeds generally between 5-12 knots. Locations along the lakeshore (TOL/CLE/ERI) may see stronger northeasterly winds increase to 12-15 knots accompanied by gusts 20-25+ knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.

MARINE
A cold front is poised to sweep E'ward across Lake Erie this afternoon through evening and be followed by a ridge building from northern ON through tonight. Accordingly, SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually to NE'erly. However, the SW'erly winds are expected to flirt with 20 knots at times over eastern Lake Erie late this morning through early evening. Waves trend 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are expected in eastern Lake Erie late this morning through early evening. Given these very marginal conditions, refrained from issuing a Small Craft Advisory.

NE'erly to E'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots back gradually to NW'erly on Thursday through Friday as a frontal low moves generally ENE'ward from near the border of central IN/OH to near the Gulf of Maine and extends a trough over the eastern Great Lakes. Waves of 1 to 3 feet with occasional 4 to 5 footers are expected and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed, especially on Thursday. A narrow ridge should move E'ward across Lake Erie Friday night and cause NW'erly winds to ease to 5 to 15 knots and back to SW'erly. Waves are forecast to subside to 3 feet or less.
SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected to veer to NW'erly on Saturday through Saturday night as a trough moves generally E'ward across Lake Erie. The 5 to 15 knot winds should back from NW'erly to SW'erly on Sunday as another ridge moves E'ward across the lake. Waves are forecast to remain 3 feet or less.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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