Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 6:55PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:21 AM EDT (14:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:38AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 416 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 5 to 10 knots in the morning, then backing west in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 58 degrees...and 56 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201710191630;;079449 FZUS53 KIWX 190816 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 416 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-191630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 191033
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 159 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
mostly sunny skies will give way to high temperatures in the upper
60's and low 70's today. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper
40's. Quiet weather will continue through Saturday, with
temperatures warming to well above normal. Highs through the rest
of the week will range from the upper 60's to the mid to upper
70's.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 159 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
a colossal upper level ridge will expand expeditiously over the
forecast area later today into Friday as the vertically stacked low
pressure system over hudson bay drifts eastward. A weak cold front
that was sprawled across upper michigan, wi, ia, and into the plains
last night will progress southward today and across our north
central cwa-but gradually wash out. This will ensure a lack of
precipitation through the short term, and the first portion of the
long term.

Things are heating up temperature wise on Friday. Highs today will
be in the upper 60's and low to mid 70's. Friday we'll see highs in
the 70's, with the southwest portions of our CWA seeing highs into
the upper 70's. Most areas will see temperatures about 5-15 degrees
above normal for the end of october.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 159 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
high pressure will linger over our CWA through Saturday, where we
will mainly see a slow increase in cloud cover as the next system
approaches the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 70's, and
lows Saturday night will drop into the mid-upper 50's.

Our stellar spell of warmer, dry weather will come to an end
Sunday morning as the first of two cold fronts swing through the
area. Models are still a little in disagreement with regards to
the exact timing with the first front, but confidence in the
general pattern is higher than it has been previously. Decent
upper level divergence takes place in our far northwestern cwa
thanks to the right entrance region of a 300mb jet, and a mid
level shortwave swings through along the western periphery of our
eastward drifting ridge. The best lift, per 850-500mb qvector
convergence is focused north of us 30 (and actually better aligned
over lower michigan), but pwats climb to nearly 1.6 inches as
return flow around the high to our southeast assists with moisture
transport from the gulf. That being said, we should still see
precipitation chances along the entirety of the surface cold front
as it moves through our area from west to east. High temperatures
on Saturday will be a little cooler due to precip and cloud
cover-mainly in the 60's west, and the low 70's across the central
and east.

After the first frontal boundary moves through Monday morning, may
see a brief break in the precipitation for the afternoon before the
next system arrives (depending on whether the ECMWF is correct or
the gfs). Unfortunately, this is where the disagreement between
models leads to much lower confidence. Both the 12z ECMWF 00z gfs
develop a cut off low near the gulf, and develop a separate trough
to the west of our area. However, the ECMWF has precipitation
developing over our area Monday afternoon with the surface low
pressure as it lifts northeastward and merges with our first front.

The GFS has this occurring slightly east from the ecmwf, placing
most of the precipitation outside of our cwa. So Monday is still a
bit uncertain, as is Tuesday into Wednesday in terms of exact
precipitation locations-but it appears both models form a decent
upper level low that lingers over the great lakes region through
Wednesday night. Behind the secondary push of cold air Monday, we'll
see 850 mb temps fall just below zero. With sufficient instability
off the lake, kept the higher pops near lake michigan as models hint
at a few bands of lake effect rain showers developing. Given the
projected pattern, feel this is a likely scenario. Highs towards the
end of the week will only be in the low to mid 50's.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 626 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
vfr conditions through the period with winds 10 knots or less,
becoming calm tonight.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Mcd
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi31 min SW 13 G 14 55°F 49°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi81 min W 6 G 8 59°F 1020.3 hPa (+2.0)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi41 min WSW 7 G 8.9 56°F 1021.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi46 minWSW 810.00 miFair54°F46°F77%1021 hPa

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW4S6SW5S7S8S6S7S5CalmCalmS4CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmSW7SW5SW5SW6SW7SW6SW6
1 day agoSW9SW12
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SW8SW4S4SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoW4NW6NW7W9NW7W7NW8W7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.