Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 9:08PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:57 AM EDT (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:39AMMoonset 7:33PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 403 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..West wind 5 to 15 knots veering north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 74 degrees...and 73 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201707221615;;635882 FZUS53 KIWX 220803 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 403 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-221615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 221051
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 530 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this morning.

Localized flooding is possible in areas that received over an inch
of rain last night. There will be a lingering chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Especially south of the
highway 24 corridor. Another system will move through the region
Sunday afternoon and evening with chances for thunderstorms again
during this period. Drier and cooler air will then prevail for the
first part of the upcoming week.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 530 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
several mesoscale convective complexes moving through the region
this morning. First MCV rotating through eastern area and severe
threat this morning ending as this feature exits. Strong warm air
advection and low level jet to our west has fueled a second MCS over
eastern ia and northern il and this making its way into NW indiana
early this morning. Primary concern will be heavy rain threat rest
of this morning with pwats still over 2 inches. Expect this complex
to begin weakening as it translates through the area this morning as
llj weakens and moisture convergence diminishes.

Focus then shifts to afternoon convection and severe chances. Fully
expect composite outflow from this morning convection to be well
south of the area today and stable bubble over most of cwa. Clouds
will linger this morning and possibly into this afternoon once again
limiting heating and keeping thermal gradient to our south. High dew
point air still in place and even with clouds could see CAPE of at
least 1500-2000 j kg develop. However lack of focus and with
boundary south of area along with local CIN thinking best chances
for any development will be in our far south. Last several cams runs
tend to agree and latest hrrr develops storms along our southern
border. Will trend afternoon pops in this direction with highest in
our far south. Isolated severe will be possible where storms do
develop and again primarily focused in our far southern counties.

Evening storms should then push south of the area with approach of
first synoptic frontal boundary and drying overnight.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 530 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
short wave and associated secondary cold front to swing south Sunday
into Sunday evening. Models continue to indicate possible convection
with these features as low level moisture lingers and CAPE values
increase to over 2000 j kg. Deep layer shear also increases to over
30 knots so isolated severe not out of question and thus the day 2
slight risk. Once this wave passes should finally see drier and
cooler air work in for Monday and first half of upcoming week.

Another short wave in west northwest flow looks to arrive mid week
with another sagging surface front. This will bring chances for
showers and storms back to the area for latter half of the week.

Basically accepted blends for later periods with focus this morning
on short term weather.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
morning radar showing break between convective complexes but some
scattered showers and occasional lightning developing in the area
between. Will see pcpn diminish by late morning as next complex
moves in then weakens and dissipates. Stable bubble over the area
through much of the afternoon and with no strong focus for
additional convection will likely be dry at terminals. Boundary
south of kfwa will see some development this evening and it could
be close enough for a stray shower or storm at terminal.

However... Chances remain too low for inclusion in forecast at this
time.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Lashley
short term... Lashley
long term... Lashley
aviation... Lashley
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi38 min S 23 G 28 72°F 71°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi58 min S 4.1 G 8.9 72°F 1007.5 hPa (-4.4)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi50 min SSW 12 G 16 72°F 1010.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi63 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F69°F100%1010.5 hPa
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN22 mi83 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3CalmE4CalmW3W6SW6SW5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3W6N7E9CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW3W3W4S6S4W8W7W6W5W4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W4
2 days agoCalmCalmW3W5W6CalmCalmW7W8NW5W7W5W4CalmCalmCalmW5CalmSW6SW8SW3SW4SW9N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.