Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 3:46 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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LMZ046 Expires:202405050215;;622645 Fzus53 Kiwx 041935 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 335 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-050215- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 335 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Sunday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 50 degrees and at michigan city is 50 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 050031 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 831 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible at times through Monday but no severe weather is expected.

- Additional showers and storms are likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of those storms may be severe.

- After cooler weather Sunday and Monday, highs climb back to around 80 for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Midlevel shortwave currently seen on water vapor imagery over northern MN will continue to lift NE and send a decaying cold front through the region tonight. A line of convection will continue to develop over IL late this afternoon, capitalizing on 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front. However, all ingredients point to a quick demise as it enters our CWA late this evening.
Not only do we lose daytime heating but convection will outrun better forcing and shear as it enters our area, quickly becoming outflow-dominant and weakening. Low level moisture convergence and midlevel lapse rates appear insufficient to maintain robust nocturnal convection in our area, but do anticipate some showers with a few isolated storms to linger into the night with the best chances in our far west 01-04Z. The chance of showers will continue in our eastern zones into Sunday as increasingly broad/diffuse cold front makes slow eastward progress. A few models suggest our extreme E/SE zones may have time for some marginal destabilization by early afternoon yielding the chance for a few storms. However, most hi-res guidance suggests any convection will be well outside of our CWA Maintained a low chance PoP for late tonight into midday Sun but any rain during this period will be very light and very isolated. High temps tomorrow will be much cooler in our NW CWA, especially near the lake where 50s are likely. SE zones still have a shot at mid 70s again before the front passes though.

Another weak shortwave ejects out of the Southern Plains and into the Ohio Valley by Monday. However, the Great Lakes remain firmly under the influence of AVA/subsidence with sharp midlevel ridge approaching from the Upper Midwest. Exactly how far north precip manages to extend remains a bit uncertain but prefer to lean on the dry side with easterly surface winds and marginal 850mb theta-e advection just barely touching our border. High-res guidance available that far out also supports a drier forecast.

Situation changes drastically for Tue and Wed though. Deep upper low just now coming onshore the West Coast will eventually pinwheel its way across the northern CONUS as a second Pacific trough follows quickly behind it. Global models still show some discrepancies in how exactly this pattern will evolve with smaller details crucial to determining the severe weather threat. Initial warm front/theta-e surge occurs Tue AM. A few strong, elevated storms may be possible during this time but the better severe chances appear to be Tue evening when initial trough/upper low (potentially) approaches the Great Lakes with moderate instability in place and (again, potentially) a highly supportive kinematic environment. A second round is then possible Wed evening as the second piece of energy rotates through the region with a similar environment. There is still alot of uncertainty with important details but definitely need to keep an eye on these periods.

The rest of the forecast period is relatively quiet. Light rain and breezy conditions may persist into the late week depending on how the upper low evolves but the instability should clear out by Thu.
Cooler temps are also expected Thu-Sat.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Summer type/diurnal storms should stay east of FWA and dissipate early tonight with the loss of heating. Other storms associated with a cold front and a boundary farther east near the Indiana/IL line should weaken as they more into a more stable airmass. Did retain a VCNTY shower at SBN, but otherwise the coverage of activity should continue to decrease. MVFR and more brief IFR clouds should persist for several hours before eventually clearing Sunday as drier air spreads into northern Indiana.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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