Thursday, September20, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:43PM Thursday September 20, 2018 5:12 AM EDT (09:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:44PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 410 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday morning...
Today..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering west 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Friday night..North wind 20 to 25 knots veering northeast 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 59 degrees...and 56 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201809201615;;920944 FZUS53 KIWX 200810 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 410 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-201615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug

Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 200826
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
426 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Issued at 424 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
one more hot day will be in store for many areas as highs reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s. A chance for a shower or storm will
exist mainly along and north of the toll road into this afternoon.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures will filter in behind a cold front with highs
only into the 60s on Saturday, then mainly in the 70s next week.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 424 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
low confidence forecast regarding impacts of upstream convection
and precip chances into this afternoon as well as temperatures.

Elevated frontal boundary has been active for several hours now
from NE nebraska into southern wisconsin. Recently developed
showers and storms were also being seen across portions of west
central lower michigan. Activity should remain north of the area
until possibly closer to the 12z as outflow boundary pushes south
and allows for at least a chance for a few showers or storms. Have
attempted to capture this as best as possible with pops expanding
southward for a period this afternoon as warm sector becomes
rather unstable with MLCAPE 1000-2000 j kg. Best shear will
reside well north of the area resulting in more pulsy storms that
are able to develop with SPC marginal risk being pushed north of
the forecast area.

Cloud cover today will be key in determining final afternoon
highs with potential for locations in the southwest to get quite
warm once again. Higher dewpoints may limit overall potential for
mid 90s but can't fully rule out. Kept with previous forecast with
coolest readings north and east where clouds may linger longer.

Dry forecast this evening and most, if not all of tonight as line
of showers and thunderstorms advertised to develop west of us
along the cold front and move east. Most models weaken this
convection as it outruns best forcing but left some low pops in
w NW areas towards morning. Winds will increase as low level jet
ramps up to over 50 kts and at least some mixing of stronger winds

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 424 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
outflow boundary pre frontal trough from overnight convection will
be the main focus for best convection chances. Hi res models
generally split on either this boundary re-firing in far SE areas
or possibly remaining somewhat active with showers during the
morning that eventually intensify. Instability and increasing
shear warrant a marginal risk of severe for at least SE third if
not a bit further nw. SPC day 2 outlook expanded marginal NW into
se 2 3rd or so of the area. May be somewhat overdone but with some
models hinting at storms further NW due to possible slower
movement of front can't argue.

Precip should be clear of the area by Friday night with much
cooler air funneling in. Highs in the 60s will dominate Saturday
with only some moderation back towards normal temps into mid week
as stronger trough digs into the plains and works east with
increasing chances for showers and possibly some storms starting
as early as Monday afternoon but especially tues afternoon and
evening when timing of energy and peak heating all combine. Colder
air will return again behind the front.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 115 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
some increasing mid and high cloud expected through the remainder
of the overnight as convective complex entering southern
wisconsin bypasses northern indiana to the north. Terminals remain
to the north of stalled frontal boundary this morning, but
diurnal mixing will allow rapid northward mixing of this front
into southern lower michigan today. Gradient should remain strong
enough this morning to prevent fog from becoming a big concern,
although cannot discount some MVFR vsbys at either terminal for a
time between 10z and 14z. Relatively unstable conditions to
develop this afternoon, but all mid upper level forcing of
significance will remain to the north. Lack of forcing combined
with rapid northward retreat of warm frontal zone continues to
argue for omitting any precip mention with the 06z tafs. Warm
sector south-southwest gradient to strengthen today with some
gusts to around 20 knots possible at ksbn this afternoon. Strong
inversion decoupling this evening should set the stage for
favorable llws criteria after 06z Friday morning, and this will be
addressed in more detail with the 12z TAF issuance.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Saturday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Murphy
short term... Fisher
long term... Fisher
aviation... Marsili
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi42 min SE 13 G 16 71°F 66°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi72 min SW 1.9 G 6 70°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi32 min SSE 6 G 11 72°F 1014.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi37 minSE 510.00 miFair66°F62°F88%1016.3 hPa
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN22 mi37 minESE 310.00 miFair70°F64°F83%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E6E5SE3SE4S3SE3CalmSE4E5E5E4E3E9SE4E5SE5E5E5SE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4NW5NW6NW8NW10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3NE3N3NE6N3CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.