Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 9:19PM Saturday June 23, 2018 7:35 PM EDT (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 307 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..North wind 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 52 degrees...and 51 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201806240415;;997425 FZUS53 KIWX 231907 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 307 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-046-240415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 232329
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
729 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 341 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
isolated to scattered showers will end later this evening across
northeast indiana and northwest ohio. Mainly dry conditions are
expected Sunday, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out
across far northeast indiana, northwest ohio, and south central
lower michigan. Dry weather will be in store for Monday. Low
temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s across
south central lower michigan to the mid 80s across west central
indiana.

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 341 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
the upper level low which has plagued the region over the past
few days has finally opened and lifted eastward. In wake of this
upper low is a more progressive westerly flow regime with another
low amplitude embedded wave working across western illinois this
afternoon. The combination of this short wave and slowly southward
sagging 900-800 trough axis could be enough to generate isolated-
scattered showers through the early evening hours. Not expecting
any additional hydro concerns as flow has become more
unidirectional westerly and better moisture profiles have shifted
well east of the area. At this time not expecting significant fog
concerns tonight with less favorable hydrolapse profiles, although
cannot completely rule out some low probabilities of some patchy
fog early Sunday morning.

On Sunday, guidance continues to suggest some phasing of a more
progressive wave across mid ms valley with cut-off PV anomaly
across northern wisconsin. Southeast progression of this pv
anomaly will take another low level trough axis across southern
great lakes, and eventually into west central ohio by Sunday
evening. A band of moderate low level convergence with this
trough, and weak fgen forcing could be enough to generate
isolated-scattered showers across south central lower
michigan extreme NW indiana NW ohio. Moisture will be more limited
on Sunday and thunder potential should be quite low.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 341 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
low level anticyclone will settle across the region on Monday
providing dry conditions and normal or slightly below normal
temperatures. Next item of concern heading forward will be long
advertised, slow moving amplified upper trough as it tracks east
of the rockies. A period of fairly strong advective forcing is
expected to begin Monday night, and especially by Tuesday. Low
level warm front will surge northward during the day Tuesday with
increasing rain storm chances. Upper support to also increase
during this period as upper speed MAX noses across the southern
great lakes. Difficult at this forecast distance to resolve
instability magnitudes, but may need to watch this period for some
strong severe threat depending on extent of destabilization. Slow
movement of this trough will keep shower storm chances going into
early Wednesday. Main concern with this system may end up being
impacts to ongoing hydro issues, with another high pwat airmass (>
1.75 inches) advecting into the area ahead of this system.

No change in forecast thinking regarding remainder of forecast
with mid upper level height rises quickly following passage of
this midweek wave. Friday Saturday still shaping up as very hot,
with a possibility heat headlines may need to be considered for
this period if current deterministic solutions hold.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 726 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
terminals areVFR to start this period with clearing skies off of
lake michigan on top of ksbn while large area of broken to
overcastVFR CIGS extend over kfwa. Clearing off the lake tries to
work east this evening but upstream obs and satellite indicate a
lot ofVFR and MVFR clouds streaming east. Hires models also
trying to develop area of low clouds and br fg near and north of
kfwa if clearing works this far east. Have trended kfwa toward the
guidance with MVFR overnight as winds become light and low levels
remain quite moist. Otherwise kept ksbnVFR on northern fringe of
development. Improving conditions on Sunday though a short wave
dropping southeast out of michigan may initiate a few isolated
showers, mainly north and east of terminals.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Lashley
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi45 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 64°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi35 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1008.5 hPa (-0.6)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi55 min E 1.9 G 5.1 70°F 1008.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi40 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast70°F62°F78%1008.8 hPa
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN22 mi40 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast72°F64°F78%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5NE3E7NE5CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW5W4W6W7W6W6SW7W7SW8
G15
W7W7W5
1 day agoE9
G16
NE3CalmE6E5E7E9E7E9E8E7E7E8E9
G14
E5E7E9E7E6NE6NE6NE5E4E10
2 days agoNE3NE5NE6E5E4E7SE3E6E4E7E7E6E6E9
G15
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G15
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G14
E8E7E6E16E10
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.