Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM   Moonset 12:02 PM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1039 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1039 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak frontal wave continues pushing offshore early this morning with high pressure returning this afternoon into tonight. Another weak frontal system passes across the area Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into early Saturday. A weak frontal system approaches Saturday and passes through late in the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 011502 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1102 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak frontal wave continues pushing offshore early this morning with high pressure returning this afternoon into tonight. Another weak frontal system passes across the area Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into early Saturday.
A weak frontal system approaches Saturday and passes through late in the weekend or early next week. A warm front approaches late Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Much of the fog has burned off. The one exception is southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. The fog will continue to burn off in this area, and should completely burn off before noon. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

A progressive and flat ridge will slide across New England today with weak high pressure at the surface. Lingering clouds this morning should give way to some sunshine, especially late morning into the afternoon. Light NE flow to begin the day should give way to a SE flow in the afternoon. There are hints in some of the guidance for a passing shower in the afternoon across interior CT. Feel this may be overdone, but did keep a bit more cloud cover in this part of the region. Temperatures are bit of a challenge again, but the usual warmer locations in NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and parts of NYC should be able to reach the middle to upper 70s. Onshore flow should keep locations further east a bit lower with highs in the middle to upper 60s.

Some low clouds make a return tonight leading to mostly cloudy conditions. The ridge axis slides to the east overnight with another shortwave beginning to swing across northern New England towards Thursday morning. Lows range from the middle to upper 40s across Long Island and southeast Connecticut to lower 50s from the NYC metro on NW.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The shortwave moving across northern New England will send a weak frontal wave across the region on Thursday. The energy and lift from the shortwave passes to our north and east, so not anticipating any showers. The main forecast challenge on Thursday will be with high temperatures and the timing of a wind shift associated with the frontal wave. The faster guidance would allow the winds to become more westerly in the afternoon, especially away from the immediate coast, giving temperatures a boost.

The NBM deterministic and statistical guidance are once again running at or below the 25th percentile of the NBM for highs on Thursday. The NBM deterministic and statistical guidance have verified too cool recently, especially in regimes where there is a deeper mixing and a westerly downslope component to the wind. Think this is another good case to blend in some of the warmer values in the 50th percentile of the NBM for locations away from the immediate coast. While the air mass is not as warm as Monday, using the 50th percentile of the NBM verified well. Forecast highs on Thursday are in the lower to middle 80s across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and much of the NYC metro. Further east, highs are in the upper 60s to middle 70s. The 75th percentile of the NBM is depicting even warmer highs in the upper 80s for some of the warmer spots.
These are possible if the flow goes westerly several hours sooner. Warmer conditions may also occur over Long Island and southern CT if the flow ends up more westerly than anticipated in the afternoon.

High pressure builds across New England Thursday night and should remain in control through Friday night. There is some uncertainty regarding any stratus development for Thursday night into Friday morning as an ENE flow off develops. Will go with increasing clouds, but keep the forecast mostly cloudy for now.
At least partial clearing is expected Friday afternoon, but this will be short-lived as clouds begin increasing again from west to east Friday night ahead of the next frontal system and shortwave energy. Temperatures Friday should end up close to seasonable levels.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level ridge builds over the area on Saturday as high pressure continues to nose down from our northeast. A weak frontal system approaches from the west and continues to weaken as it runs into the high. This creates a bit of a tricky PoP forecast for Saturday, but continued previous thinking of keeping much of Saturday dry as the upper level ridge axis doesn't pass through until Saturday evening. Slight chance to chance PoPs Saturday afternoon for western locations, with increasing PoPs through the night, becoming likely after midnight. PoPs then continue through Sunday night. There are some hints from the latest guidance of increased convergence from an inverted trough/strengthening low as the system moves through Sunday evening. This would bring a period of some heavier rain to the area. Current NBM probabilities of seeing 1 inch or more with this event are 20 to 15 percent from west to east, with the 90th percentile PQPF over 48 hours showing 1.5 to 1 inch from west to east.

Dry conditions are expected by early Monday morning. Brief, weak high pressure builds in, with a weak cold front/surface trough potentially passing through Monday evening. Heights rise aloft slightly on Monday and expecting mostly sunny skies. This combined with a light westerly flow should lead to some above normal temperatures Monday. Went closer to the NBM 50th percentile as the deterministic was closer to the 25th percentile. This gives widespread low to mid 70s across the area.

A warm front approaches the area late Tuesday. There remains uncertainty as to whether the warm front will remain nearby or lift to the north late Tuesday and will thus affect temperatures across the area. Mid level energy from the west will attempt to break down any riding in the mid levels.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak high pressure remains in control today. Weak low pressure approaches from the north and west tonight.

Most of the terminals have become VFR with the exception of KHPN, KBDR, and KGON. Expect all but KGON to become VFR in the next 1-2 hours. KGON is forecast to take a bit longer and there is a chance it remains MVFR.

Winds will be a light and variable to start becomes S with sea breezes this afternoon, around 10KT.

MVFR or lower conditions return tonight, with eastern terminals lowering first. KGON, KISP and KBDR likely go IFR. Less confidence in IFR for other terminals. Flow remains out of the south overnight, under 10KT.

VFR returns from west to east Thursday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Higher confidence in a return of MVFR or lower tonight for KJFK and KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Lingering MVFR or lower in the morning for eastern terminals, then VFR everywhere. Some W gusts around 15-20KT in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR cond in the afternoon, becoming likely overnight.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient remains in place, with an extended period of conditions below SCA levels through early next week.
Seas may reach 3-4 feet late Sunday into Monday with a weak frontal system moving through.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cedar Point
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Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:02 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:10 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:20 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
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Shinnecock Canal
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Wed -- 12:28 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:06 AM EDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:04 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:26 PM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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