Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sag Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:03PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:26 AM EDT (14:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:41AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 915 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ300 915 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure today will give way to a cold frontal passage late tonight into Friday morning. The high will build back in on Saturday, then slide offshore Sunday and Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sag Harbor, NY
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location: 41.02, -72.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191318
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
918 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal passage will occur tonight. High pressure will
dominate from Friday night through Monday. A slow moving frontal
system will then move across during the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
The patchy fog has dissipated across the region and temperatures
were updated to reflect latest conditions. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track this morning.

A upper level system over northern ontario will track across
hudson bay today and into northern quebec tonight. This will
drag a boundary through the forecast area late tonight. It is
difficult to call it a cold front because temperatures behind it
on Friday will be virtually the same, but the temperature
structure aloft does indicate that it is indeed a cold front.

Regardless, there is very little moisture to work with so the
frontal passage will be dry.

Winds ahead of the front today will ramp up out of the
southwest. A solid breeze can be expected along the south coasts
by late afternoon, particularly across eastern long island.

Temperatures will remain way above normal again with most spots
at least 70 for highs. Slightly milder temperatures are likely
tonight as winds likely stay up, at least a little, in most
areas. A blend of guidance was used.

Short term Friday
Northwest winds and continued dry. 850 flow in the 35-40kt
range, and with subsidence and a dry airmass, there is a good
chance mixing over preforms the model data. Because of this,
winds were bumped up significantly from the model blend. The
deep mixing flow is also the reason temperatures will be near 70
or above once again. Temperatures were raised above guidance,
but if mixing to 850 is realized, 80 degrees highs will be
realized.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Ridging at the sfc and aloft will dominate into Monday ahead of an
upper trough in the western states. As this trough reaches the
plains states, its southern extension will likely cut off over the
south and tap into gulf moisture before phasing with another trough
digging into the northern plains. Wx should be dry and unseasonably
warm until at least Monday, with high temps in the 70s, and possibly
nearing 80 in NE nj on sat.

Nwp guidance continues to trend toward a later timing of the
approaching frontal system for mid next week. There could be some
sct showers and or patchy of light rain drizzle via low level
warm moisture advection well ahead of the approaching front as early
as Mon night-tue. More significant rainfall with the front now looks
to hold off until at least Tue night and possibly until wed, and the
slow moving front, with attendant warm moist conveyor belt, low
level jet, and multiple tropical connections, one out of the gulf of
mexico and another developing out of the subtropical western
atlantic, could become a heavy rain producer during this time.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
High pressure across the region weakens as a weak cold front
approaches from the northwest today. The front begins to cross the
area tonight into early Friday as high pressure returns.

Winds become SW at less than 10kt at all terminals by mid morning.

By early afternoon winds back to the ssw and increase to around 10kt
with gusts up to around 20kt at all but kisp, where infrequent gusts
up to around 20kt are possible. Wind gusts should abate during the
evening, with winds veering to the sw-wsw.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi38 min 64°F 64°F1024.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 21 mi71 min SW 9.7 G 14 63°F 1 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 23 mi26 min SW 13 G 15 65°F 1023.5 hPa (+0.0)51°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 26 mi38 min SSW 6 G 8.9 59°F 64°F1024 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi38 min S 5.1 G 6 60°F 65°F1024.2 hPa
44069 48 mi71 min WSW 12 G 14 62°F 61°F54°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi44 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 65°F1023.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi92 minVar 3 mi64°F57°F78%1025.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi33 minWSW 910.00 miFair65°F54°F68%1025 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6W6SW64S533SW4333CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW434CalmSW336
1 day agoN7534NW533SW4SW3SW4SW4SW3SW5SW4SW5SW5W8SW6W8
G14
W75W56W8
2 days agoNW11
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NW8NW10NW9NW11--NW10
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--N7
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Sag Harbor, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Sag Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.81.30.60.20.20.61.42.22.83.23.12.82.21.60.90.3-00.20.81.52.12.62.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:46 PM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.70.21.21.71.71.40.5-0.4-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.5-1.1-0.30.71.41.51.40.8-0.2-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.