Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sag Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:11PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:10AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1235 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning...then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1235 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak frontal system passes across the waters tonight, stalling south Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure builds to the north for Tuesday. Meanwhile...a wave of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary to the south Tuesday and Tuesday night. A series of low pressure systems impact the area waters through the week...resulting in periods of unsettled weather.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sag Harbor, NY
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location: 41.02, -72.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230644
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
244 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal system passes through the region tonight, stalling
in the mid atlantic region Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds
in for Tuesday. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will move
along the frontal boundary, south of the region, Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday,
followed by low pressure Thursday into Friday. High pressure
returns for the beginning half of the upcoming holiday weekend,
but low pressure may bring some unsettled weather during the
latter half.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Minor updates this evening to reflect current temperature and
dew point trends. The weak frontal boundary is now across
eastern ct and long island. Any patchy dense fog should
gradually improve through the morning from west to east
following the frontal boundary. Previous discussion follows.

Widespread rain has moved to the east of the area. Have
adjusted pops downward based on the latest radar trends. Weak
wave of low pressure near the DELMARVA continues to slide to the
east. High resolution models continue to show this system
linking up with the front as it moves to the east tonight.

Latest trends however have any redevelopment of rain staying
offshore as deepest moisture and lift likely remain to the east.

Have therefore lowered pops after midnight to account for these
trends.

Gradual clearing is expected behind the front. Temperatures
remain nearly steady for much of the night, but could fall into
the upper 40s/lower 50s NW of the city towards daybreak.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday/
The cold frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south,
through the mid atlantic region and DELMARVA Tuesday, and weak
mid and low level ridging builds. Will keep the area dry through
most of the day and then bring in probabilities late in the day
to the south as a wave begins to move along the frontal
boundary.

The wave passes to the south with some differences in placement
Tuesday and Tuesday night with the NAM just about totally dry
while the GFS is a little farther north. At this time leaned a
little more closer to the GFS and brought chance across about
the south half of the area.

The wave does pass through quickly and precipitation may be
ended across the eastern zones by Wednesday morning.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
Weak high pressure builds in behind a departing offshore low on
Wednesday. Only a slight chance of a shower in the morning mainly
over long island. Partly sunny otherwise, and a blend of mav/nam mos
looked good for high temperatures.

The next system to bring rainfall to the area arrives late Wednesday
night, with rainfall being most likely Thursday into Thursday night.

Went a little cooler than most guidance, particularly over western
zones as a triple point low approaches, but the associated warm
front extending to its east might only push through some of the
eastern zones, if at all. Some elevated instability should be
present, so have included isolated tstms for thurs and thurs night.

Also included areas of fog for late weds night into thurs morning
with the warm front not too far off to the south.

For Friday, the storm exits to the ne, but is still close enough for
a chance of showers, especially over the NE zones. Some lower level
instability combined with a cold pool aloft may also result in a
tstm over parts of ct as well.

Weak high pressure then returns for Saturday. Will go with a dry
forecast and slightly above normal temperatures for now. The timing
of the next low pressure system is still uncertain at this point.

Some overrunning rainfall could move in by daybreak Sunday. The
system would figure to move slowly enough for Monday to be affected
as well. Will go with chc pop for now for both days.

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/
Weak high pressure will build across the area this morning and
then offshore this afternoon.

Improving toVFR this morning with mid and high level clouds
increasing through the day.

N-ne at 5-10kt this morning. An afternoon seabreeze is probable
at all but kswf/khpn.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night-Wednesday evening Vfr.

Wednesday night-Friday night MVFR or lower possible. Slight
chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening. Llws possible
Thursday-Thursday evening. NW winds g15-20kt possible Friday.

Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Forecast remains on track over the waters this evening. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels from
tonight through Tuesday night.

A weak pressure gradient will be over the waters on Wednesday with
weak high pressure ridging in behind a departing offshore low. Ne
winds at 10 kt or less shift SE in the afternoon, and seas should
remain below 5 ft. The next storm system so far would not appear to
create a pressure gradient strong enough for advisory level winds
over the region. Relatively stronger winds associated with this
system would be on Friday when the center of this system is
northeast of the waters. Winds are therefore forecast to remain
below advisory levels through this period and should remain that way
on Saturday as winds diminish. However on the ocean, guidance
suggests a significant swell. Have gone with a forecast of wave
heights below guidance, but still at advisory criteria Wednesday
night through Saturday morning.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated tonight through the end of
the week.

Tides/coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding thresholds may be reached with Wednesday
night's high tide cycle for southern sections of ny harbor, the
south shore back bays of western li/queens/brooklyn, and western
long island. A better chance of minor flooding arrives for Thursday
night, with northern ny harbor and parts of central LI sound also
included. Chances then lower on Friday night as winds likely shift
offshore.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc/met
near term... Md/ds/met
short term... Met
long term... Jc
aviation... Dw
marine... Jc/met
hydrology... Jc/ds
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi43 min 56°F 52°F1013.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 21 mi76 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 56°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 23 mi31 min N 11 G 12 57°F 1012.3 hPa56°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 26 mi43 min N 5.1 G 7 57°F 59°F1012.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi71 min 55°F 54°F3 ft1013.3 hPa (-0.9)55°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi43 min NNE 5.1 G 6 56°F 59°F1013.7 hPa
44069 48 mi151 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 64°F60°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi49 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 57°F 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi67 minN 0 mi58°F57°F100%1013.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi68 minNW 910.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS33CalmCalmCalm3466S8646SE75SE7SE66S5--5SW4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5CalmN54N534S6S5444S3CalmCalmS3S4CalmCalm
2 days agoN10NE7N7NE4NE8NE5NE5NE7NE7E643534S54S5S4S3SW33Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for Sag Harbor, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Sag Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:56 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:49 AM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:11 PM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.80.2-0.10.20.91.62.22.62.72.51.91.30.80.300.311.92.73.23.43.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:54 AM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:07 PM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-0.8-0.20.61.31.41.20.7-0.3-1.1-1.6-1.8-1.5-0.9-0.30.61.51.91.71.30.4-0.7-1.5-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.