Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sound Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1023 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming E late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain after midnight. Chance of light rain late.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft...subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon. Light rain likely in the morning.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning...then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1023 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure moves east of the waters tonight. A low pressure system tracks southeast of long island late tonight into Wednesday morning. Brief high pressure builds Wednesday night before a slow moving low pressure system impacts the waters Thursday into Friday. Weak high pressure returns for Saturday. Another frontal system affects the area for the latter half of the holiday weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sound Beach, NY
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location: 41.04, -73.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240226
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1026 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure moves east of the waters tonight. A low
pressure system tracks southeast of long island late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure builds in later
Wednesday, followed by a slow moving low pressure system
affecting the area Thursday into Friday. Weak high pressure
returns for Saturday. Another frontal system affects the area
for the latter half of the holiday weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Forecast has been updated mainly for timing of the onset of
rainfall chances. Delayed chances slightly once again. Minor
hourly adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints were also made.

Anomalously large and deep upper trough and associated upper
low digs into the the central us tonight... With jet streak and
shortwave riding up the coast late tonight into Wednesday
morning. In response... Southern low pressure tracks to the mid-
atlantic coast tonight and then quickly near of just SE of the
40 70 lat lon Wed morning.

Still quite a bit of spread in terms of areal coverage of
rainfall between models. A rather tight gradient of heavier
rainfall from frontogenetic zone to the N NW of the low... Which
should mainly stay SE of li. With region in briefly favorable
left front quad of approaching upper jet streak... Have leaned
towards higher likelihood of light rain for city coast late
tonight early Wed morning... With decreasing chances for
measurable rain to the north and west. Gusty N NE winds develop
along the coast late tonight and continue into Wed morning in
response tot he low as well.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Anomalously large and deep central us upper trough and associated
upper low gradually slides east into the ohio tennessee river
valleys Wed into Wed night.

Initial shortwave jet streak and resultant coastal low pressure
departs Wed aft... With brief high pressure building in Wed aft eve.

Any rain pushes east early Wed morning... With gusty N NE winds wed
morning gradually subsiding into the afternoon. At least partial
afternoon clearing should allow temps to rise to near seasonable
levels... Upper 60s lower 70s.

Models in good agreement with increasing potential for rain
development late Wed night into Thu morning ahead of approaching
deep closed low with deep layered lift of sub- tropical
moisture tap. Easterly winds will be increasing as well... With
tightening gradient between warm front low pressure to the S sw
and canadian maritimes high. See tides coastal flooding for
associated impacts.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Unsettled pattern for much of the long term.

High amplitude upper level trough over the eastern two-thirds of the
country, with its axis stretching from the central great lakes
region to the gulf coast Thursday morning will push east and become
negatively tilted through the day. This is indicative of a mature
system.

At the surface, a warm front will approach from the south. However,
this front looks to remain south of the region, but should provide a
lifting mechanism. A moist airmass, with dewpoints rising into the
upper 50s, with some 60 degree dewpoints not out of the question,
will already be in place. As the upper low with the system moves
closer to the area, cooler air aloft will provide some elevated
instability. MUCAPE values of up to 500 j kg noted in some of the
models. A period of moderate to briefly heavy rain is possible
Thursday morning. Right now, just some general thunderstorms are
possible.

Although precipitation fields are not currently indicating a high
rainfall event for Thursday with flash flooding, there is a low
probability, given local climatology. The potential for embedded
convection, pwats near 1.50", and low pressure moving into the area
from the west all point to this potential. Although, winds will be
east, a shift more to the southeast on Thursday would be another
ingredient favoring excess rainfall. Again, would be more confident
in flash flooding if QPF was higher and occurring later in the warm
season, but for now, minor urban and poor drainage flooding seems
most likely.

Surface low pressure moves over the area Thursday night, then heads
northeast, into the gulf of maine Friday morning. Light showers will
continue for Friday on the back side of the low.

Weak high pressure builds in for Saturday, with another frontal
system impacting the area Sunday into memorial day.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure over the terminals weakens overnight as a wave of
low pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast. The low will
move south of long island overnight through Wednesday morning,
and well east during the afternoon. Weak high pressure builds
in once again behind the low Wednesday afternoon. This high
weakens Wednesday evening as another, deeper, low approaches
from the west.

Vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period. There
is a low chance of MVFR ceilings and visibilities developing
briefly toward 12z along the coast, then improving as the rain
ends from west to east. MVFR conditions are expected at kisp
after 07z and MVFR conditions will be possible at kgon.

Light and variable winds become NE less than 10 kt after 06z,
then increasing to around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible
Wednesday morning. Winds will become E late in the day as the
next low approaches. There may be a brief period of light
northerly winds 17z to 20z.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night-Friday night MVFR, ifr possible. Slight
chance of thunderstorms Thursday with E winds g20kt.

Saturday Vfr.

Sunday MVFR ifr developing.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels
through tonight. Overnight, an initially weak pressure gradient
will tighten as an area of low pressure moves up the coast. As
such, marginal NE SCA winds and seas are likely to develop on the
ocean late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will become light
by Wednesday afternoon... But seas may remain elevated on the ocean
through Wednesday night.

Low pressure will approach the waters Wed night into Thursday
morning with easterly SCA winds likely developing across all
waters... With a low probability for gale gusts. Winds likely
begin to diminish late Thu into Thu eve. Ocean seas building to
5 to 7 ft Thursday and remain Friday, then diminish to less
than 5 ft for Saturday and the remainder of the weekend.

Hydrology
0.75" to 1.00" of rain is currently forecast from Thursday
through the day on Friday. Higher amounts are possible in any
thunderstorms that develop on Thursday. The potential for flash
flooding is low given local climatology (see long term section)
and the most likely scenario is minor urban and small stream
flooding given antecedent wet conditions.

Another round of light to moderate rainfall is possible for
beginning of next week.

Tides coastal flooding
Increasing threat for successive rounds of minor coastal
flooding for the Wed night, Thu morning and Thu night high tide
cycles. Greatest threat for widespread minor and potentially
moderate coastal flooding appears to be with the Thursday
eve night high tide cycle as a slow moving low pressure system
approaches the region... And with less than 1 2 ft of surge
needed in many places to reach minor flood thresholds and 1 to 2
ft for moderate.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jp nv
near term... Jc nv
short term... Nv
long term... Jp
aviation... Met
marine... Jp nv
hydrology... Jp nv
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi47 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 1009.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 18 mi47 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 59°F1010.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 20 mi95 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 54°F
44069 24 mi80 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 61°F 64°F52°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi50 min S 1.9 G 3.9 61°F 53°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi50 min 60°F 53°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi47 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 57°F1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT12 mi13 minWNW 310.00 miFair61°F52°F72%1009.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi9 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F51°F78%1009 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi9 minE 310.00 miFair56°F53°F90%1009.2 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT18 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair57°F53°F87%1009.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair54°F50°F87%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW5NW6N3CalmN5NW3N6N6NE10SE5S8SW9SW8SW10SW6SW7SW3SW5SW4CalmS3SW4W3
1 day agoS5S4CalmS5NW3E5SE6SE7SE10SE9SE8E5E7E9E12E10E9E10E8NE6E4N3N5N4
2 days agoSW7SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4E6E5E6E4E5SE5E9E86S10S9S7S6S6S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
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Wed -- 04:42 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:48 AM EDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:04 PM EDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.34.52.50.8-0.4-0.60.31.93.85.66.87.16.44.93.11.40.1-0.30.424.16.17.68.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:45 AM EDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:01 PM EDT     7.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.94.32.51-0.2-0.60.11.63.45.26.36.65.94.631.50.3-0.30.21.73.75.677.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.