Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:10PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:36 AM EDT (14:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:34AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 951 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw early this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of dense fog late this patchy fog this afternoon. Rain developing. Vsby 1 nm or less...improving to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw around 5 kt in the afternoon...then becoming sw in the evening...becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon and evening...then 1 ft or less after midnight. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 951 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift N into the waters today. Weak low pres will approach on Tue...followed by a cold front Tue night. High pressure will build in Wed and Thu. Another low will approach on Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 271052
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
652 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over marine will retreat into the maritimes, but
provide cool weather across southern new england today. A warm
front will approach the region during this time and result in
periods of rain with areas of freezing rain across the high
terrain. Wet weather continues Tue and Tue night as low pressure
tracks over or near the region. Although Tue should be milder
than Monday. High pressure brings dry but chilly weather Wed and
thu. More unsettled weather is possible late Fri into sat.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
7 am update...

first batch of precipitation continues to move across the region
this morning. Biggest concern is the freezing rain and icing
potential. Temperatures across western ma and even in the hills
of ct are at or just below 32f. The heavier precip has allowed
for the profile to cool a degree or two increasing the icing
potential. A few obs have reported either freezing rain or up
this morning. Webcams were temps are at or below 32f show wet
pavements so believe a glaze of ice is on surface that are
untreated this morning. This will result in hazardous travel for
the morning commute.

Closely watching the ct valley where the winds have turned to
the north. This will result in cold air drainage and the temps
may drop to 32f within the next hour. Still feel the sps in
those locations is still valid and thus will hold off on
expanding the advisory.

Did however expand the freezing rain adv as hi-res guidance
including the hrrr and rap keep temps hovering near 32f into the
late morning hours. Felt 10 am was a good start and will let day
crew reevaluate.

Aside from these updates, the rest of the forecast remains on
track.

Previous discussion...

continuing to monitor progress of main area of precipitation
toward southern new england. Temperatures at elevations about
700 feet and higher were near freezing, so will continue the
freezing rain advisory this morning. Low dew point depressions,
so additional cooling is possible with the main area of
precipitation arrives. Temperatures still expected to rise above
freezing by 8 am, ending the threat of freezing rain.

A warm front will try to push north into southern new england
later today. A low pressure moving along this front will prevent
it from completely doing so. This will provide a focus for
periods of widespread rain.

Not much sunshine today, but temperatures should be near normal.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Tonight...

abundant clouds linger. Lots of low level moisture in the lowest
3,000 feet above the ground in the wake of a low pressure moving
offshore. As previously mentioned, cannot completely rule out
some patchy drizzle. Still not expecting temperatures to fall
much, even with a weak cold front moving through.

Tuesday...

not a lot of sunshine anticipated, despite southern new england
getting into the warm sector of a low pressure in southeast
canada. MAX temperatures should be above normal, in the upper
40s and 50s. Could be warmer if clouds and rainfall are delayed
until late in the day. Low risk of a isolated thunderstorm or
two toward the south coast due to elevated instability.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
Highlights...

* showers linger Tuesday night as cold front passes through
* cooler but dry weather for Wed and thurs
* unsettled weather returns Friday into Saturday
pattern overview...

00z model consensus continues to show an active weather pattern
for the period. Split flow aloft will continue through the
period with a few shortwaves moving through the flow. Partial
phasing of the two streams will occur across the great lakes and
northeast on Tuesday. This will result in the development of a
low pressure system east of the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday. High pressure and upper level ridge will follow
Thursday into early Friday. The next upper level low/trough
deamplifies as it moves into the mid/upper ridge axis across the
eastern u.S. A coastal low is forecast to develop and quickly
move east in the aforementioned region of this phasing. The
spread has decreased for this timeframe but the still question
in strengthen and location of this system will determine p-types
and QPF amounts.

Details...

Tuesday night... High confidence.

Weak shortwave will move over the region on Tuesday with surface
low pressure over northern new england. Along the cold front,
guidance develops a secondary low pressure system just south of
southern new england by Tuesday night. This wave of low pressure
will bring showery weather Tuesday evening into the overnight
hours. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder with this system as
tt increase above 50 and li's drop below 0. This is strongest
in the conservative ec.

Precip chance will quickly come to an end from west to east
during the overnight hours as CAA takes a hold of the region.

Wednesday into Friday... High confidence.

Trough overhead as upper level low deepens as it moves towards
the canadian maritimes. This puts the region in northwest flow
through the period resulting in dry but breezy conditions.

Clouds may be stubborn on Wed over the CAPE and islands given
northerly flow across the waters. In fact could have some ocean
effect rain/snow showers over the outer cape! Despite cold
advection, the environment should be well mixed, so max
temperatures will be close to normal.

Northwest flow continues on Thursday with an area of high
pressure building in new england. Anticipate increasing
sunshine and lighter winds. Dry and seasonable conditions should
persist through Friday with high pressure in control.

Friday night into the weekend... Low confidence.

Split flow remains over the region with the next southern stream
wave interacting with the northern stream. Still some model
spread in this system leading to a low confidence forecast. The
ec has become more progressive with this approaching coastal low
developing it over 1-95 while the GFS keeps the system
suppressed. The UKMET is more inbetween the two systems, but the
gefs and eps continue to show the system south of sne. Overall
a chilly rain with potential for wet snow/sleet at times on the
northern portion of the precip shield. All guidance suggest
system should be or moving offshore by Sunday, thus drying trend
possible second half of the weekend.

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/... High confidence.

Today... Fzra risk diminishes by mid-morning. Otherwise, -ra/ra
with MVFR- lifr CIGS with light E winds initially turning SE and
increasing.

Tonight... Ra diminishing, however ifr-lifr CIGS remain. Could
see areas of -dz. Light winds.

Tuesday... MVFR conditions likely in areas of rain and fog, with
a trend lowering to ifr as frontal boundary and surface low
approach. Low risk for thunder toward the south coast.

Kbos taf... Not expecting any fzra impacts at the terminal with
e onshore flow. Lowering MVFR down to lifr this morning.

Kbdl taf... Not expecting any fzra impacts at the terminal, as
temperatures remain above freezing.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... High confidence. MVFR conditions within any passing
rain showers with improving CIGS toVFR by the morning hours. Low
risk for thunder across the south coast.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty n/w winds
Wednesday withVFR conditions into Thursday.

Friday... Moderate confidence. VFR and dry to start but likely
lowering to MVFR or possibly ifr Fri night in rain/wintry precip.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/... Moderate confidence.

Today... Warm front will lift across the waters, resulting in an
increasing east to southeast flow. Rough seas across the
eastern outer coastal waters are more likely than the southern
outer waters. Continued the small craft advisories for those
waters. A few gusts to 25 kt are also possible across CAPE cod
bay and nantucket sound. Have less confidence across those
waters, so did not expand an advisory there. That will need to
be monitored as the day progresses.

Tonight... A weak frontal boundary sweeps the waters, with light
west winds developing. This will allow seas to subside and small
craft advisories to conclude.

Tuesday... Light south winds with frontal boundary north of the
region. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Winds becoming northeast late
tue night as front slips south and wave of low pres tracks along the
front south of new england. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty north winds near
Wednesday into early Thu then diminishing as high pressure builds
into the area later thu.

Friday... High confidence. Quiet weather with high pressure over the
area early fri. However increasing east-southeast winds Fri night as
low pres approaches from the west. Also vsby lowering in rain and
fog Fri night.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Freezing rain advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
maz002>004-008-009-012-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for anz255-
256.

Synopsis... Belk/dunten
near term... Belk/dunten
short term... Belk
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk/dunten
marine... Belk/dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi48 min 43°F 39°F1019.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi36 min E 15 G 16 40°F 40°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi48 min SSE 4.1 G 6 42°F 40°F1020 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi46 min 46°F 43°F4 ft1019.7 hPa (-1.8)46°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi66 min E 12 G 14 39°F 2 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi41 min 40°F4 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi48 min SE 7 G 11 41°F 39°F1020.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi54 min S 6 G 7 42°F 39°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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NE3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi1.7 hrsESE 6 mi43°F43°F100%1020.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi1.7 hrsE 90.50 miLight Rain Fog41°F39°F96%1020.4 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi40 minSSE 110.25 miLight Rain Fog43°F43°F100%1020.6 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi43 minESE 110.25 miFog43°F42°F97%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E66E8E8E10
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1 day agoNW5NE6NE8E6E7E7E7NE7
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4NE6NE6NE5NE6NE5NE3NE5NE5NE6NE6NE6NE6NE8NE8NE8
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2 days agoS11
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SW9SW4CalmCalmCalmW5

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Mon -- 03:22 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.60.1-0.3-0.20.41.11.82.32.52.41.91.30.80.2-0.2-0.30.211.72.32.62.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     -3.62 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     3.34 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:50 PM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     3.51 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-2.5-3.5-3.5-2.6-1.10.62.23.23.22.51.2-0.4-2.1-3.3-3.7-3-1.701.83.13.52.91.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.