Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 4:38 AM   Moonset 6:23 PM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 749 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers until early morning. Patchy fog early this evening. Areas of fog late this evening and early morning, then patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening. Thu - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 749 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend.

FXUS61 KBOX 070007 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 807 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS

Dry and partly sunny conditions persist this afternoon except for a slight chance of a band of isolated showers and an embedded thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Tuesday will be the pick of the week with abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures.
Unsettled pattern mid to late in the week with cooler temperatures.
A few rumbles of thunder are possible, especially across the interior on Wednesday. Milder this weekend with drier weather, especially on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

730 PM Update...

Have removed precipitation chances as convective guidance overdid shower coverage from the weak front swinging through.
Main change was adjusting fog coverage in the latest update.
Really have bumped up things toward a consensus of short term guidance. This brings fog down to anywhere from 1/4 to 5SM along the immediate coast. Best shot for 1/4 SM is for Cape Ann, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. Could see this activity sneak into Boston for a bit late tonight, but am somewhat uncertain as winds could quickly turn northwesterly. This usually will keep the fog at bay. Have held off for now, but a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for portions of the coastline late tonight.

Previous discussion...

As expected low/mid cloud cleared out for much of the region this afternoon allowing temperature to quickly jump from the 50s into the mid 70s for many. Sea breezes are keeping coastal locations much cooler in the 50s and low 60s. This is also keeping instability at bay along the coast while inland, mesoanalysis shows a few hundred J/kg of instability inland with up to 500 J/kg centered over northern RI/southeast MA where dewpoints are in the mid 60s.
This may come into play as a weak cold front sinks through the region later today, but the front looks to be delayed until early evening/early overnight hours which when instability will be diminished. So, while a few isolated showers and even a rumble of thunder are possible, odds are better that any particular location will remain dry. Overnight that high dewpoint air will lead to mild low temps and fog over the south and east coasts before winds behind the front shift to the NW and N, pushing drier air into the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Tuesday is the pick of the week as high pressure and a dry air mass will bring a sunny day with even warmer temperatures than we saw today. 925 mb temps increase from 15C today to 16-17C on Tuesday which will support high temperatures in the mid 70s (inland) and mid to upper 60s (coast). Winds will be light, becoming westerly in the afternoon. By afternoon high clouds are on the increase ahead of a warm front which approaches SNE overnight extending from an approaching surface low over the Great Lakes. Clouds will thicken and lower through the overnight hours ahead of widespread rain showers moving in from the west. There remains some uncertainty as to how quickly the showers move in, more likely holding off until near or just after 8am.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Highlights

* Unsettled and cooler Wed through Fri.

* Trending drier on Sat with temps starting to rebound.

* Lots of uncertainty for Sun at this point, but the upward temperature trend may continue.

Wednesday...

Stuck under cyclonic flow through this period. A shortwave trough lifts from the central Great Lakes early on Wed into Upstate NY/northern New England by late in the day. A frontal boundary lifts toward and perhaps through portions of our region. Lot of uncertainty at this point which areas will be within the warm sector.

Still a fair amount of spread amongst guidance with how things exactly evolve through this period. Latest suite of guidance has trended a bit faster with bringing in the precip. Though there is spread in where the heaviest rains will fall at this point in time as there is spread in guidance with how convection evolves. At this point appears that the greatest risk for thunderstorms is across the interior, but especially across the Berkshires. This is where ensembles GEFS/GEPS/EPS indicate anywhere from low to mod (10-70 percent) probs of CAPE AOA 500 J/kg. The risk is highest across the Berkshires as even convective ensembles such NCAR C-ShiELD and MPAS guidance also highlighting this area as well. This does coincide with the GEPS/EPS guidance of total precip AOA 0.5" with low to mod probs (10-60 percent) whereas the GEFS is essentially nil for our area. Seems that the latest deterministic echoing the ensembles with the ECWMF/GEM showing more precip for our area than the GFS. Hard to say which is correct as we are a bit more removed from the shortwave, but there is roughly 1-1.5 inch PWATs in place. For now have stuck with NERFC QPF.

Still think that the latest SPC Day 3 Outlooks is reasonable given the setup. The deep layer shear will not be an issue with bulk shear of 40-70+ kts in the 0-6 km layer. The instability is more of a question as mentioned previously and where we warm sector. The low level lapse rates look quite pitiful at this point for our region.
However, mid level lapse rates are around 6-8 degrees Celsius during the day. Forecast soundings show much of our area being quite inverted or stable. This would limit activity to being more elevated in nature. Think that there could be some hail risk with this. This matches well with the CSU-MLP for Day 3. It does highlight a risk of winds out in far western MA/CT where there is potential for being more within the warm sector. Stay tuned for future updates.

Thursday and Friday...

Still unsettled through this timeframe as we remain under cyclonic flow. Another shortwave ejects into and perhaps through our region on Thu. The deeper trough over the Great Lakes is anticipated to start moving late Thu through Fri. The trough digs from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/southern New England on Fri. A frontal boundary will still be nearby or over the region during this timeframe. A few waves may ride along the front bringing us showers.

Guidance in a bit better agreement through this timeframe with a low sliding along the front that is nearby/south of our region. This will keep us unsettled with rain showers. Given the location of the front and low we will remain on the cool side with persistent onshore flow. Did nudge down our temps a bit from the NBM on Thu as it is much too warm with persistent onshore low. For now have stuck with the 50th percentile of guidance, but suspect we will need to lower further in future updates. Actually appears that the NBM is more dialed in on Fri with temps as again we've got persistent onshore flow. Highs on Thu range from the 50s to mid 60s whereas Fri we are generally in the 50s.

At this point it appears that showers will be around for a good portion of this timeframe. The heaviest activity appears to be later on Thu into early Fri as low pressure is deepening south of our area. Removed thunder chances at this point given the cool onshore flow and little if any instability. Ensembles indicating that 24 hr probs of QPF AOA 0.5 inches is low to mod (10-60 percent) generally southern New England region wide. Will also have a bit of an uptick in wind speeds/gusts out of the E/ENE during this period. Though the LLJ strength is a bit spread out amongst guidance from 10-20 kts to up to 30-40 kts. This coupled with the high astro tides will likely result in some issues across the eastern MA coast. See the coastal flooding section for more details.

Saturday and Sunday...

Still under cyclonic flow through this period. Though does appear that a shortwave ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes/New England for Sat. The next wave/trough slides into the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic for Sun. Drier on Sat as high pressure nudges in.
Another frontal system could slide in on Sun bringing us more showers.

Not a whole lot of focus on this period given the active weather for mid to late in the week. Have stuck with the NBM, which seems reasonable at this point. Temperatures will be on an upward trend through the weekend. High temps range from the mid 50s to the low 60s on Sat as we will still be under northerly flow. Winds shift to a southerly direction on Sun, which will result in temps continuing to trend upward. Highs generally in the 60s.

As mentioned there could be some showers spreading in on Sun, but there is a significant amount of timing, intensity and placement differences with the forcing. Think the NBM is fine at this point with chances of precip.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR for much of the interior with relatively light winds.
Elsewhere conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR along with LIFR, especially along the immediate coastline. This is a result of marine stratus/fog spreading in. Most confident for FMH/HYA and ACK in LIFR conditions developing now through 02Z. Could see some improvement visibility wise by 10-13Z as winds turn northerly, but ceilings will be much slower to respond. Moderate confidence for BOS/PVD and BED. Think BOS will briefly go down to IFR before winds turn northwesterly and scatter things out.
PVD/BED should generally stay VFR, but a some IFR level bases could leak in. Light SW winds turn to the N/NW late.

Tuesday...High confidence away from the Cape/Islands. Moderate confidence for the Cape/Islands.

VFR for most of the region. The exception is Cape Cod, Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Will start off across the Cape/Islands with MVFR to LIFR stratus/fog. This will gradually erode and improve to VFR, but timing wise probably not until 15-18Z.
Though ceilings may not improve at ACK as has been my experience in these type of patterns in the past. Light northerly winds shifting to the NW across the interior. Sea breezes along the coastline due to light winds.

Tuesday Night...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Starting off VFR for most. The only exception is at ACK where lingering MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Will see an emergence of MVFR to IFR stratus along the south coast. Could see some rain showers spreading into the interior late, but think MVFR ceilings won't spread in until toward daybreak. Winds will be relatively light out of the south.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF through 06Z. Moderate overnight into the AM push Tue.

Starting off VFR, but will see IFR/LIFR stratus/fog spread in toward 06-10Z. Should see these lower ceilings scatter out to VFR during the AM push, but some uncertainty here given the weak winds. Will sea breeze on Tue 14-16Z with VFR conditions for rest of TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Tuesday night...High Confidence

Modest winds and seas continue tonight and tomorrow. Expect areas of dense fog over the coastal waters tonight as moisture increases from southerly winds. Fog should dissipate early on Tuesday as a weak front ushers drier air over the coastal waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Coastal Flooding

High astro tides this week and concern becomes late Thu into Fri with potential frontal wave tracking south of New England, generating onshore flow into eastern MA. Magnitude of potential inundation and erosion will depend on strength and timing of surface low. Too early for specifics with any certainty, but given astro tides are already over 11 ft at Boston, it will only take a 1 ft storm surge and modest wave action to yield minor inundation and erosion. Stay tuned throughout the week for updated information.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Montauk
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Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:25 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

The Race
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Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     -3.94 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     3.31 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:44 PM EDT     -3.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     3.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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