Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:40PM Monday September 25, 2017 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 10:05PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 314 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt this evening, becoming light and variable, then becoming ne around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy dense fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm in the morning.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 314 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pres remains centered N of the waters through Tue. A cold front moves through the region Wed night, followed by brief high pres building in from the w. Another surface low and attendant cold front pass through Fri night, followed by strong canadian high pres settling in across the area through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251912
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
312 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure covering the northeast u.S. Will bring fair, warm
weather to southern new england through Wednesday. A cold front
combined with moisture from maria may impact the CAPE and islands
and SE mass late Wednesday night into Thursday. Behind the
front, turning much cooler Thursday night through the weekend.

Hurricane maria will bring dangerous rough surf and rip currents
to the south coast this week, before passing well southeast of
new england late this week.

Near term until 7 pm this evening
150 pm update...

noting the low clouds and patchy fog are confined to nantucket
and portions of nantucket sound on latest goes-16 non-op prelim
satellite imagery and 17z observations. However, noting some
clouds pushing n-nw into ri and bi sounds and near the mouth of
buzzards bay and S end of vineyard sound, but tending to thin as
they shift into the S coasts of ri and mass.

Elsewhere, noting diurnal clouds developing across interior
areas, mainly across central W mass into N ct. With light e-ne
winds, skies remain mainly clear across eastern mass and most of
ri. Not seeing any shower activity developing across the region
as of 1750z, but do see some spotty showers across northern nh
and the mountains of me as well as northern cheshire county nh.

Will continue to monitor for possible spot showers, but at this
point expect to be very limited and short lived.

Temps as of 17z were mainly in the mid-upper 80s across the ct
and merrimack valleys, up to 90 degrees at kowd, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast with
local sea breezes. With the light or calm winds in place, could
see temps go up another few degrees but, with the clouds inland
it may hold them down a bit. Will continue to monitor.

Short term 7 pm this evening through Tuesday night
High pressure means light wind will continue. This means fair
weather with patchy fog inland. Meanwhile, the coastal fog and
stratus should again advect up across CAPE cod and islands.

There is a low risk that the fog could advance farther northwest
into southeast mass.

High pressure remains in control Tuesday, with a light wind
inland and light southeast wind at the shore. The NAM and ggem
show showers moving into south coastal ma and ri tonight. The
ggem then spreads showers across all of southern new england
Tuesday. Dynamic features show no support for this, and
convective parameters are stable through the period. We will
favor the GFS and ECMWF which keep any showers offshore, and
will show slight chance pops along the south coast late in the
day.

With dew points in the 60s, min temps should also be in the
60s. Sunshine and mixing on Tuesday will again bring the layer
up to about 850 mb, where temps are forecast at 16c-17c. This
favors mid 80s inland and cooler toward the shore.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* very warm and humid Wednesday with low risk of a shower t-storm
* sct showers t-storm possible late Wed night Thu SE new eng
* taste of autumn Thu night into the weekend with much cooler and
less humid weather
models in good agreement on mid level trough moving east from the
great lakes and amplifying over new eng this weekend. This will
effectively be a kicker to push maria out to sea and also bring a
pattern change to more seasonable autumn like weather late in the
week through the weekend. Before the cooler airmass arrives, will
have to watch for potential of some showers t-storms with locally
heavy rain late Wed night into Thu across SE new eng.

Wednesday will be another very warm and humid day ahead of
approaching cold front from the nw. Temps well into the 80s away
from the south coast with dewpoints near 70. Some instability noted
which supports a few showers or an isold t-storm developing but mid
level lapse rates are meager which is a limiting factor.

As maria begins to move eastward well south of new eng Wed night
into thu, a plume of tropical moisture will lift north into the
region and interact with an approaching front moving into new eng.

This will likely set up a pre late Wed night into Thu with area of
showers t-storms with locally heavy rainfall but low confidence on
location of the heavy rainfall axis and if it extends west into new
eng. Consensus of the deterministic guidance keeps it mostly
offshore, but ECMWF and several GEFS members bring some heavy rain
to SE new eng. Still uncertainty so will maintain pops of previous
forecast and continue to monitor.

Behind the cold front, much cooler airmass will move into new eng
thu night and last through the weekend as mid level trough amplifies
over new eng. Mainly dry weather, but may see some diurnal showers
on Sat under the cold pool aloft with 500 mb temps -22c. Temps
mostly in the 60s Fri into Sun with lows in the 40s. Coolest day
likely on Sat with moderating temps Sun into Mon as the trough
axis moves east and heights rise.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

through 00z... High confidence.

Vfr and mainly dry weather today, other than a spot shower over
the high terrain this afternoon. Light sea breezes develop
along immediate E coast, and calm or light variable winds
elsewhere. Patchy ifr-lifr CIGS continue off and on from kcqx-
kack with mainlyVFR vsbys. May see MVFR-ifr vsbys return to
kack around 23z or 00z in fog.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR inland with patchy fog after 04z-05z. Expect low
stratus clouds and areas of fog with ifr-lifr conditions to
return to CAPE cod and the islands from 02z-04z. The low cigs
and fog may push n-nw into ri SE mass, and possibly as far N as
kbos, though lower confidence reaching there. Light variable or
calm winds.

Tuesday... Moderate to high confidence.

MainlyVFR. Areas of ifr-lifr early across CAPE cod and the
islands due to fog, with some improvement to MVFR by around
midday. Light s-se winds.

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence.

Vfr to start, then MVFR-ifr conditions moving in again. Lifr
conditions possible across CAPE cod and the islands.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf. Light sea breeze shifts to
light S from 00z-02z. Light s-se wind during tue.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Wednesday... Areas of ifr lifr stratus and fog near the south coast
early, otherwiseVFR. Low risk of a few afternoon showers or an
isold t-storm.

Wednesday night into Thursday... MainlyVFR, but areas of stratus and
fog possible near the south coast Wed night into early thu. In
addition, scattered showers t-storms may impact the CAPE islands
and SE ma late Wed night into Thu morning with lower conditions.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR. Patchy MVFR CIGS and low risk of
showers sat.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Light e-ne winds will continue through Tuesday with high
pressure nearby. Meanwhile, increasing long period south swell
from hurricane maria will be moving into the waters with
potential for 5 to 7 foot seas over southern waters tonight and
7 to 9 feet on Tuesday. SCA for hazardous seas will continue. In
addition, areas of fog will result in poor vsbys at times,
especially south and east of CAPE cod and into nantucket and
vineyard sounds.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Wednesday... Light winds but large southerly swell will impact the
southern waters. Reduced vsbys in fog Wed morning.

Wednesday night into Thursday night... Light winds Wed night shifting
to north Thu afternoon. Increasing N winds Thu night with gusts 25-
30 kt possible. Large southerly swell continuing. Some heavy rain
possible over waters south and east of CAPE cod. In addition areas
of dense fog may be an issue.

Friday into Saturday... Diminishing northerly wind. Seas gradually
subsiding and may drop below 5 ft Fri night.

Tides coastal flooding
Long period swell from hurricane maria will be moving north
into the south coastal waters. Wnawave guidance indicating
increasing swell of 5-7 feet with a period of 15 seconds moving
reaching the south coastal waters tonight and up to 9 ft on
Tuesday. This will result in increasing high surf and dangerous
rip currents. High surf advisory will continue and will extend
through tue. It is likely the high surf will continue through
the week even as maria likely recurves out to sea well southeast
of new england.

Climate
So far, the high temp has reached 91 degrees at kbdl, setting
the record high for today's date. Record report has been sent,
but will be updated once final high has been reached. Max
readings so far are 84 degrees at both korh and kpvd, only a
degree off of tying the record at korh. Will continue to monitor
for possible record tying or setting readings through the
remainder of the afternoon.

Records jump up Tuesday to 89-95, while less mixing will lead
to lower MAX temps. So the chance for record highs diminishes
Tuesday.

The current record MAX temps for the two days... Today and
Tuesday... Are:
bos 89 1926 95 1881
orh 85 1970 91 1930
bdl 90 2007 93 2007
pvd 89 1920 89 2007
also, dew points in the 60s, while high for this time of year,
are not unprecedented. The daily extreme high values for dew
points are still in the low 70s, except for a couple of 68 and
69 values at worcester.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for maz020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am edt
Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc
near term... Evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Kjc
aviation... Wtb kjc evt
marine... Wtb kjc evt
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi44 min 77°F 67°F1016.9 hPa (-1.5)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi44 min SSW 7 G 8 76°F 70°F1016.8 hPa (-1.6)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi54 min 65°F 67°F5 ft1017.8 hPa (-1.1)65°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi44 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 73°F 73°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi44 min S 7 G 9.9 72°F 67°F1017.2 hPa (-1.3)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi44 min SSW 6 G 7 74°F 69°F1017.3 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi1.8 hrsENE 4 mi76°F64°F69%1018.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi48 minESE 310.00 miFair75°F64°F71%1017 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi48 minE 710.00 miFair71°F66°F87%1018.1 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi51 minSE 710.00 miFair78°F64°F62%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33SE44S4S3E44
1 day ago34CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N4N533343
2 days agoN14
G24
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N11N11
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N7N8N5NE5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Mon -- 12:57 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.121.61.31.10.90.80.81.11.51.92.32.52.52.21.81.41.10.80.60.711.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     2.41 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     -2.55 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:23 PM EDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.21.50.5-0.7-1.8-2.5-2.4-1.7-0.60.51.72.32.31.60.8-0.3-1.5-2.4-2.7-2.2-1.3-0.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.