Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:26 AM EST (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:03AMMoonset 7:26PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 926 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon on ice free waters.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft on ice free waters.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight on ice free waters. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ300 926 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves into the canadian maritimes tonight. High pressure builds in through Thursday. The local area will be between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south on Friday, both of which depart to the east over the weekend. A warm front will slowly lift to the north on Monday, then a cold front will pass through on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180341
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1041 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Snow showers will come to an end early this evening. Dry, but
cold air will move into southern new england tonight and into
tomorrow. Mainly dry weather expected tonight into Sunday, with
a warming trend during this weekend. Another low pressure should
affect the region early next week with mostly rain, but there is
a risk of some snow mix ice across the interior.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
1020 pm update...

spotty leftover snow showers and even some patchy freezing
drizzle being reported across portions of E mass at 03z. Noting
some very light radar returns, but those have been shrinking as
they shift E over the last couple of hours. Light NW winds
in place, and dewpts have been dropping across central and
western areas, so feel that precip should taper off as it moves
offshore through around midnight or so.

Will still see some lower clouds lingering across SE mass into
ri as SW winds aloft linger through most of the overnight but,
once the h5 cutoff low moves E off the mid atlantic coast,
should see winds shift as the lower clouds push offshore toward
daybreak.

Expect temps to steadily fall overnight across central and
western areas, starting to reach into eastern areas after 2 am
or so as the clouds also push offshore. Temps will btom out in
the teens inland, ranging to the 20s at the shore.

Previous discussion...

mid-level winds will shift to the northwest allowing for cold
dry air to push into the region. Overnight temps will generally
be in the teens with low 20s near the urban corridor and
coastline. If temps at some inland locations decouple overnight,
readings could drop quickly into the single digits thanks to
fresh snow pack and mainly clear skies. Highest confidence is
across ore and baf.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Thursday...

strong high pressure will build across the mississippi valley region
pushing a coastal low off the virgina coastline. Up here in the
northeast, flat ridge from the southern high pressure system will be
in place. Continued westerly flow across the area as high
temperatures will be near normal, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Dry weather for the day with plenty of sunshine. Guidance is hinting
at some ocean effect clouds moving in during the afternoon, as well
as over the berks from any les.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* dry with a warming trend through this weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain late Monday into Tuesday
with a risk of some interior snow mixed precip ice
quiet pattern expected through this weekend with a moderating
trend as amplified trough moves into the plains with downstream
ridging and rising heights across new england. Near normal
temperatures Friday, becoming above normal during this weekend.

A deeper mid level trough is expected to approach southern new
england early next week. This will steer a low pressure into the
great lakes, and a cold front across our region. There is a
decent southerly low level jet, so moisture transport should
also be slightly higher than normal. Temperatures are marginal
for wintry precipitation, so it will all come down to timing.

The more precipitation which occurs during the nighttime hours,
the more likely portions of our region could see a period of
snow, sleet or freezing rain. During the daytime hours, rain is
much more likely. Will take several days for these sorts of
details to become clearer.

Aviation 04z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

overnight... High confidence.VFR across central and western
areas. Lingering MVFR-ifr CIGS will slowly improving toVFR
across NE mass to greater boston by around 05z-06z, but will
linger until around 09z or so across ri SE mass around 09z or
so.

Thursday... High confidence.VFR. NW winds gusting up to 20 kts
across S coastal areas, CAPE cod and the islands.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Improving conditions
to MVFR by the evening withVFR after midnight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Conditions should start
to improve within the next few hours as precip tapers off.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Breezy.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Sunday through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Coastal low will push into the gulf of maine tonight switching the
winds to a more northwest direction. A few gusts to near 20 kts but
overall winds will be below small craft criteria.

Seas will remain at or above 5 feet through much of the period
for the outer open waters. Where small crafts will continue into
Thursday evening. Have extended the small craft into the outer
reaches of ri and bi sounds with 5 foot seas through mid morning
Thursday.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Hydrology
1100 am update...

a flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Cold conditions will persist through Thursday which will limit
additional runoff. Continued ice jams will remain on some of the
rivers. There will be some increase of snow pack across
interior southern new england as well.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for anz235-237-
251.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm est Thursday for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Belk evt
short term... Dunten
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk dunten evt
marine... Belk dunten evt
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi39 min 30°F 36°F1018.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi39 min NNW 5.1 G 11 26°F 38°F1018.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi147 min NNW 14 G 18 29°F 2 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi44 min 42°F4 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi39 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 33°F 35°F1017.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi45 min NW 5.1 G 7 33°F 33°F1018 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi33 minNNW 9 mi32°F27°F82%1018.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi31 minNNW 1010.00 miFair26°F19°F78%1018.3 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi31 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast32°F30°F96%1018.1 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi34 minNW 87.00 miOvercast30°F27°F88%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE65E6
G14
6E6E7E6NE7NE7E7NE7NE6NE4NE4N3NW6NW6N7N4NW6NW8NW9NW8NW9
1 day agoNE8NE8NE6NE6NE4NE4CalmE3CalmSE5S4S4CalmS343CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4555
2 days agoNE10
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NE8NE8NE9NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:39 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:19 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:15 PM EST     1.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.30-00.30.81.31.72.12.21.91.510.50-0.3-0.20.20.71.11.51.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:59 AM EST     -2.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EST     2.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:18 PM EST     -3.21 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:21 PM EST     2.68 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-1.2-2.3-2.7-2.3-1.3-0.11.32.32.72.31.40.2-1.2-2.5-3.2-3-2.1-0.80.61.92.62.51.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.