Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

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Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:15PM Monday July 23, 2018 2:01 AM EDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1223 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Overnight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers with tstms likely in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely especially after midnight.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1223 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. The waters will remain between weak low pressure to the west, and offshore high pressure building slowly westward. This will keep the waters under a prolonged period of southerly flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230300
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1100 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will remain entrenched across southern new
england for most of the upcoming work week. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are likely Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
mainly dry, but there is a chance of showers or thunderstorms in
western sections. A cold front will be in the vicinity Wednesday
night through Friday, bringing better chances of showers and
storms. Slightly lower humidity possible next Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
1035 pm update...

area of showers on latest NE regional 88d radar mosaic showing
most of the shower activity across SW ct into central and w
mass, moving slightly W of due n. Another band of showers
developing S of new england, mainly near and S of 40n latitude,
moving northward. Should see this move into S ri SE ct by around
05z or so. May see this area of rain, some with heavy downpours
and possibly some isolated thunderstorms, move across for at
least an hour or two. Something to monitor closely around
daybreak in case of training of heavier showers.

Otherwise, should see the showers move into W nh vt upstate ny
overnight. May see some more patchy showers develop with the
soupy airmass across the region on the s-se winds.

Noting some of the lower clouds breaking up from about a khya-
kack line eastward, which can be seen on latest goes-east rgb
nighttime microphysics satellite loop. Noting cooler sea surface
temps with the breaking clouds from near nantucket eastward to
the southern gulf of maine. However, with the low t TD spreads,
should see more low clouds and patchy fog linger along the s
coast, CAPE cod and the islands.

Have updated the near term forecast to bring conditions current
and incorporated trends through the remainder of the overnight.

Previous discussion...

note... Have let the high surf advisory expire. We are no longer
expecting 7 ft seas. That said, we still do expect a moderate
risk for rip currents on Monday, so beachgoers should be aware
of this threat!
the overall severe weather threat remains low overnight given
lack of synoptic scale forcing poor mid level lapse rates.

However, when ever your dealing with a southerly 25 to 35 knot
low level jet this time of year and 70+ dewpoints, the low risk
for an isolated severe thunderstorm very localized flash flood
event exists. So while a low probability, something that will
have to be monitored through the night.

Most locations will only see overnight low temperatures in the
70 to 75 degree range given high dewpoints in place. Enough
mixing in the boundary layer should prevent widespread dense
fog... Although a bit of patchy fog is certainly possible.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Monday...

a tropical environment remains in place across southern new
england with the southerly LLJ pwats both 2+ standard deviations
above normal. The models indicate a bit better instability on
Monday with capes probably near 1000 j kg. Therefore... We expect
scattered showers and embedded t-storms with locally heavy
rainfall. Appears most of the activity will be near or northwest
of the boston to providence corridor as upper level ridge over
the atlantic begins to retrograde to the west.

The overall severe weather threat will remain low on Monday
given poor mid level lapse rates and lack of deep layer shear.

However... Given impressive low level jet and 70+ dewpoints an
isolated severe thunderstorm very localized flash flood event
can not be completely ruled out. High temperatures on Monday
will be well up into the 70s to the lower 80s... But it will be
very humid.

Monday night...

upper level ridge over the atlantic continues to retrograde west
Monday evening. This should bring an end to any
convection... Except perhaps for a few left over spot showers
across the interior. It will remain quite muggy though and
overnight lows will likely remain above 70 in most locations.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday...

strong high pressure ridge builds westward from the western
atlantic. Deep upper trough in the tennessee valley will
continue. The axis of rich, tropical moisture will be pushed to
our west with very dry air moving in above the moist surface
air. While this leads to some instability, the air should be too
dry through the column to produce more than a stray shower in
central and eastern sections. But a scattered thunderstorm is
possible in western ma and a portion of northern ct, closest to
the moist axis. Expecting morning clouds giving way to partial
sunshine and highs in the mid 80s with sultry dewpoints of 72-75.

Wednesday...

not much change in the upper pattern, although the atlantic
ridge retreats slightly and the moist axis heads slightly
farther east, extending into western ma and northern ct.

Expecting a partly cloudy day, with increasing clouds late.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm are possible, mainly in the
western half of southern new england. Still warm and very humid.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

the upper flow becomes more southwesterly, instead of
meridional. This allows a cold front to move slowly eastward
into southern new england. There is a high likelihood of showers
and some thunderstorms. Have added wording of locally heavy
rainfall during this time frame, since the axis of precipitable
waters above 2 inches will be over us again. There is some
potential for localized urban flooding, especially with any
repeat storms. High temperatures on Thursday may be held to the
upper 70s and lower 80s due to the cloud cover and
precipitation.

Thursday night and Friday...

a brief period of drying aloft moves in late Thursday night and
early Friday. But, the low levels remain very moist, with
dewpoints still in the lower 70s. Both the GFS and ECMWF show
a second frontal boundary... The real one... Approaching from the
west Friday afternoon. Skies should be partly sunny, allowing
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s. Both models predict
the atmosphere to be very unstable, with high capes and an axis
of high k indices approaching from the west. GFS is 6-12 hours
faster than the ecmwf. Unlike previous days, the mid-level lapse
rates may be favorable for convection. If the axis approaches
at the time of maximum heating Friday afternoon, scattered
strong isolated severe thunderstorms would be possible, despite
relatively weak wind fields aloft.

Saturday...

possibly some lowering humidity values, especially in western
sections. Otherwise, southwest flow aloft and at the surface
continues. Expecting partly sunny skies a just a slight chance
of a shower. Highs in the 80s.

Sunday...

some question where the cold front stalls close to or just off
the S coast. May see a weak wave moving along this front, which
could through a slight chance for showers mainly S of the mass
pike. Temps may remain a bit above seasonal levels, but rather
low confidence this far out.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

overnight into Monday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR conditions should dominate through Monday with bands of
scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Localized
ifr conditions will also be possible and some areas will improve
toVFR at times. Overall, expect a wide variety of conditions
possible over this time with MVFR conditions dominating.

Monday night... Moderate confidence. Mainly dry weather expected
with MVFR conditions likely dominating.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Slight chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, chance tsra.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra. Locally heavy rainfall.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Friday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra, slight
chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

overnight through Monday night... High confidence.

Persistent s-se winds will result in gusts around or just over
20 knots at times. Seas will slowly diminish through Monday
night, but remain at or above small craft thresholds for most
of the outer waters. Scattered showers and patches of fog will
also reduce visibility for mariners at times.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Frank gaf
near term... Evt gaf
short term... Frank
long term... Evt gaf
aviation... Frank gaf
marine... Frank gaf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi32 min 72°F 67°F1019.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi37 min SE 19 G 22 72°F 1020.9 hPa70°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi38 min SE 11 G 17 73°F 71°F1019.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi72 min SSE 18 G 19 73°F 71°F7 ft1019.4 hPa (+0.5)72°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi17 min SE 12 G 14 73°F 1 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi49 min 70°F8 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi38 min SE 12 G 18 72°F 69°F1020.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi32 min SSE 15 G 19 74°F 74°F1021 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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NE7
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G16
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi68 minVar 5 mi72°F72°F100%1020.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi66 minSE 147.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1019.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi66 minSSE 13 G 187.00 miA Few Clouds72°F72°F100%1021 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi69 minSE 8 G 176.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F97%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E7
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1 day agoE3E3CalmCalmE33E7E8E9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm43CalmCalm445544433CalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.50.71.11.51.71.71.61.41.210.70.60.71.11.522.42.52.42.21.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:08 PM EDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.9-2.5-1.6-0.411.92.22.11.50.4-0.9-2-2.4-2.2-1.5-0.40.91.92.42.31.80.8-0.6-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.