Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:04 PM EST (23:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 449 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of rain early this evening, then chance of rain late this evening and early morning. Rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 449 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the west tonight, with a wave of low pressure riding along it. The front and low cross the area on Thursday, followed by high pressure building in from Thursday night. Into Saturday. A cold front will then approach from the great lakes on Sunday, and pass through Sunday night. Low pressure moving out of the plains states on Monday will approach Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 232131
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
431 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
The threat for showers will increase from west to east tonight,
particularly toward daybreak Thursday. Heavy rain on Thursday will
bring the potential for some flooding, strong to damaging wind
gusts, along with unseasonably mild temperatures. Mainly dry
and more seasonable temperatures follow on Friday, then
turning colder Saturday. Snow showers are possible
Sunday then another frontal system may impact the region
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Low pressure across the eastern great lakes will lift northeast into
quebec tonight. The result will be a continued strengthening
southwest low level jet. The bulk of the forcing deeper moisture
will remain to our west this evening with some upper level ridging
still in control. Nonetheless, we still expect some light rain
showers at times mainly across the interior with the focus across
western ma northern ct. Temperatures still hovering around 32
degrees along the high terrain of the berkshires, so will continue
the winter weather advisory through 8 pm this evening. Even in
locations where temperatures are in the middle 30s, some spotty
light freezing rain will be possible given the very cold ground
temperatures. Any ice accretion will be no more than a glaze, but
that is all it takes to result in hazardous travel.

We should see an increase in areal coverage and intensity of the
rain showers after midnight, especially across interior southern new
england. The increasing southwest low level jet will transport
higher dewpoints northward and also allow for rising temperatures,
especially along the coastal plain. In fact, temperatures may be
near or even above 50 across portions of ri SE ma by daybreak thu.

Lastly, we will have to watch for areas of fog developing overnight
particularly across the interior. This the result of milder air
moving over the snowpack in place.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Highlights...

* heavy rain and some flooding potential Thursday
* strong to damaging wind gusts across eastern new england on thu
active weather on Thursday with heavy rain flooding potential on
Thursday along with the strong to damaging wind gusts. Will break
more below.

1) heavy rain flood potential Thursday
intensifying low pressure will track just west of southern new
england Thursday. This will induce a potent southerly low level jet
4-5 standard deviations above normal. Combined this with a pwat
axis 3-4 standard deviations above normal will set the stage for
heavy rain. The strong forcing will result a widespread 1 to 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts. The greatest risk for
the highest amounts will be across the western slopes of the
worcester hills, where the very strong south to southwest LLJ will
result in some enhanced upslope flow. There is enough forcing and
marginal elevated instability for the low risk of a t-storm or two.

In addition to the heavy rain on Thursday, snow water equivalent
measurements indicate values on the order of 1 to 2 inches across
the region. High temperatures should reach well into the 50s in most
locales and it is not out of the question that a few locations touch
60 across ri SE ma. This coupled with heavy rain and dewpoints in
the upper 40s to middle 50s will result in a good deal of this
melting. Combined all that with a frozen ground, the potential for
areas of significant urban street flooding potential exists. There
also will be the risk for some river stream flooding. Therefore... A
flood watch remains in effect for all but the outer-islands.

2) strong to damaging wind potential:
as low pressure tracks west of southern new england, a very strong
low level jet will develop late Thursday morning and afternoon. The
nam rgem indicate a 925 mb LLJ of 85 to 95 knots moving across the
southeast new england coast, which is 4-5 standard deviations above
normal. At 850 mb, the guidance indicates over 100 knots between
18z and 22 across southeast new england.

As if often the case with southerly flow, it is uncertain how much
of this wind will be able to mix down given the inversion. A good
rule of thumb is to take 50 percent of the 925 mb wind, but this can
be stronger if we are able to get a fine line going. A lot of the
mesoscale models do show this occurring, so something will have to
monitor closely. Based on the data, opted to go with a high wind
warning for southern ri and far southeast ma. We also have gone
with a wind advisory for the rest of eastern ma and ri. An
expansion of these headlines a bit further westward is a
possibility, but will let the midshift take a look at the 00z data.

The threat of these stronger winds reaching the ground will increase
where high temperatures approach 60. Given the heavy rain and the
magnitude of the wind, there is the risk for some downed trees and
scattered power outages.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Late week into weekend chill with some potential light snow snow
showers in-between. Out ahead of a potent midweek storm system,
onset wintry weather followed by another soaker possible. Late week
could see another arctic blast with bitterly cold wind chills.

* highlights ...

- cold, dry conditions through late week
- watching potential outcomes Sunday along an arctic front
- another onset wintry weather, follow-up soaker tue-wed
- potential late week arctic blast
* overview ...

to everything, turn turn turn, there is a season, turn turn turn. A
pattern relatively unchanged through the following week, for now. A
spinning tropospheric polar vortex across the hudson bay region that
has been brought about by continued N pacific poleward sub-tropical
contributions yielding higher heights into the arctic, downshearing
n-stream energy over N america. A broad h5 trof pattern maintaining
within 5-day average h5 height ensemble means through early february
across eastern N america, -h85 temperature anomalies for the central
portion of N america, new england along the e-cusp, wobbling between
airmasses with surface lows cascading round the tpv occluding below
hudson bay lower heights with secondary low development across the
northeast.

Turn turn turn, post-frontal digging arctic air, clipper-systems in-
between. With greater downshearing, equatorward potential vorticity
displacements and tropospheric folds, more robust storms per cyclo-
genesis. Further in time, lower confidence with outcomes, uncertain
with possible N atlantic downstream traffic, mjo contributions. May
see a break mid-february with potential mild sub-tropical pacific
low-level E wind anomalies into the conus.

Break down details, forecast thinking in the discussion below. Low
confidence forecast starting with Friday. Greater weighting towards
ec ecens.

* discussion ...

late week into Saturday ...

westerly winds, cold, dry. Scattered snow shower activity possible
into the berkshires with lake fetch. More robust outcomes with some
additional mid level energy ascent swinging through Friday night
along a reinforcing, arctic cold front. But limited moisture and an
increasing measure of high pressure.

Sunday into Monday ...

additional sweeping pieces of energy beneath the hudson bay tpv. Ec
keeping separate rather than phasing, could see little outcome with
just a brief warm-up to at or above seasonable levels, S winds. As
alluded to by the prior forecaster, have to watch for any potential
development, any focused ascent.

Tuesday through Wednesday ...

another potent storm. Onset wintry weather prior to erosion per s
winds. Not ruling out lead cold air drainage, however loosening with
interior surface to low-level low center over the N great lakes if
the 23.12z ec is correct. Another soaking for S new england possible
with another 1-2 inches of rain, strong S winds. Perhaps a repeat of
the coming storm? Wait and see. Low confidence forecast as forecast
models wobble, shift, adjust.

Thursday onward ...

return arctic air behind a deep, stacked low center over the hudson
bay region. Could see a return of below-zero temperatures, as well
as bitterly cold, potentially dangerous wind chills.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. MVFR CIGS will dominate
tonight, but some ifr conditions may develop after midnight across
the interior. This a result in lower clouds and the development of
fog. Scattered light showers will be mainly across the interior
this evening, but will increase in areal coverage and intensity
between 6z and 12z from west to east. Llws will also be a concern
tonight with a strong southwest low level jet.

Thursday... Moderate to high confidence. Widespread low end MVFR-ifr
with localized lifr conditions anticipated. Heavy rain and areas of
fog expected along with llws. Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35
knots across much of the interior and between 40 and 50 knots across
eastern new england. Strong llws is also anticipated with a
screaming LLJ at 925 mb.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shsn.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shsn.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tonight... Moderate confidence. A strong southwest low level jet
will result in 30 to 35 knot wind gusts across the waters. The
winds will tend to occur after midnight.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. A 925 mb LLJ between 85 and 95
knots will move across the waters. Given the cold waters this time
of year there will be a strong inversion, but still expect strong
gale force wind gusts. Gale warnings are posted for all waters. We
can not rule out brief storm force wind gusts, but if they occur
will be short-lived and enhanced by a fine line. So if needed, we
would handle those stronger winds with special marine warnings. Seas
will build to between 10 and 15 feet across the outer-waters. In
addition, areas of fog may become locally dense as anomalously high
dewpoints move over the cold ocean.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Areas fog.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
maz018>024.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for maz002>022-026.

Wind advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Thursday for maz005>007-
013>017.

Winter weather advisory until 8 pm est this evening for maz002-
003-008-009.

Ri... High wind warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
riz005>008.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for riz001>007.

Wind advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Thursday for riz001>004.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 9 pm est Thursday for anz231>235-237-
251-255-256.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz230.

Gale warning from 7 am to 5 pm est Thursday for anz236.

Gale warning until 9 pm est Thursday for anz250-254.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi34 min 44°F 33°F1019.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi39 min WSW 6 G 6 41°F 1021 hPa36°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi34 min SSW 5.1 G 7 41°F 37°F1019.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi74 min SSW 16 G 18 46°F 43°F5 ft1021 hPa (-2.8)43°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi64 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 32°F1 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi34 min 44°F6 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi34 min S 8 G 11 42°F 35°F1020.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi34 min SSW 9.9 G 13 1020.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi2.2 hrsSSW 7 mi43°F37°F80%1021.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi68 minSW 510.00 miOvercast41°F35°F79%1020.2 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi71 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast43°F36°F76%1020.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi68 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast43°F39°F86%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W6W5W5W3S3SW3CalmCalmSW6SW7SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Montauk
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:31 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 AM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:51 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.20.60.1-0.3-0.30.21.11.92.62.92.82.41.710.4-0.2-0.5-0.30.31.11.92.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:00 AM EST     -4.40 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:55 AM EST     4.16 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:00 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     -4.75 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:26 PM EST     4.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.6-0.7-2.7-3.9-4.4-3.8-2.1-0.11.93.64.23.62.20-2.2-3.8-4.6-4.5-3.2-1.30.82.944

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.