Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:02PM Friday October 19, 2018 8:56 PM EDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 728 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 728 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure along the mid atlantic and southeast coast will move into the western atlantic tonight. A cold front will approach late tonight and move across the waters late Saturday into Saturday evening. Strong high pressure builds west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high pressure pushes offshore Monday followed by a weak clipper like system tracking well north of the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 192329
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
729 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure offshore mild southwest winds to southern new
england tonight, with strong gusts across CAPE cod. A weak cold
front swings through on Saturday, with scattered showers
possible. High pressure builds through Monday, with some showers
possible Tuesday. High pressure then returns late week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
720pm update...

broken area of shra moving across pa ny is associated with a
weak pre-frontal trof in advance of a mid lvl speed MAX across
the great lakes. Ci mid clouds reflective of the moistening of
the column from the top down, therefore, even as this trof
approaches, it will take some time for any ra to reach the sfc
as this will be dry a bit longer. Pops are focused mainly after
06z and mainly S of the mass pike, where lower lvl convergence
is strongest and highest moisture content is progged. Will make
some minor adjustments to the pops, particularly with timing to
reflect this thinking.

Previous discussion follows...

fair weather much of the night, with high clouds
early and lowering cloud bases late at night. Shortwave
entering the great lakes drives a strong upper jet into new
england late at night, generating dynamic support for showers.

However the available moisture will be limited with pw values
around an inch at best. So expect any showers that do form will
be light. Timing of the showers would be as the upper jet
approaches our area, which would be after 3 am.

Low level winds are expected 30-35 kt, while winds at 2000 feet
will be 40-50 kt. The southwest flow over 60+ degree water will
support transfer of wind gusts to the surface. Expecting 35-40
kt gusts... Best chance remains over CAPE cod and the islands.

There is a low chance these gusts could move across the south
coast of ma and ri. We will maintain the wind advisory over the
cape and islands, but not expand to the south coast.

Dew points at mid afternoon remained in the mid 30s, but the
southwest flow will bring interior dew points into the 40s,
while the flow off the water should bring the south
coast islands into the 50s. This will limit low temps to the 40s
inland and 50s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Saturday...

upper support should shift off to the south and east by midday.

This should move any showers offshore by midday. The upper low
will swing a cold front through during the afternoon, which
could be a focus for scattered or widely scattered showers.

Otherwise, the trend will be to drier air, which would allow
partial sunshine. Temps aloft would support MAX sfc temps in the
low to mid 60s.

Saturday night...

winds turn from the northwest and generate cold advection. Upper
trough approaches from the great lakes bringing a cold pool
aloft, which will reach us late at night. This will bring
increasing wind gusts overnight. Min temps should reach the 30s
and lower 40s.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
* highlights...

- generally cooler than normal through midweek
- showery conditions likely Tue into wed.

- frost freeze conditions possible
overview and model preferences...

positive pna ao regime remains ensconced across the N conus
through mid week. This yields a typical W ridge and E ne
synoptic trof pattern. With longwave trof across the region
through the period, a conduit for cp air with origins in the
nunavut NW territories. Shortwaves rotate through the first
early sun, followed by another late tue, but remain generally
moisture starved given the arctic source. Therefore, will
continue to favor a generally colder than normal period with
light shra at times. Late week, focus is on impeding zonal jet
from the E pacific which could force a gradual dissipation of
the ridge trof couplet toward more zonal flow. ECMWF ecens and
ukmet continue to be slower than north american models. Given
this progressive nature tends to be a bias, will follow the
previous forecast in adding more weight to the slower ecmwf
based model solutions.

Temperatures...

coldest sun-sun night under strong CAA with h85 anomalies
dropping to between -10c and -15c. Highs likely struggle to
break out of the 40s, but agree with previous forecaster that
although the pres gradient slackens Sun night into early mon,
there is some upper lvl moisture which could inhibit radiative
processes. Still looking at lows below near or below freezing
for much of the region. Gradual moderation as highs warm from
the low 50s to mid upper 50s on Mon and Tue respectively. Lows
still cool, but respond in tern, warming each night into the mid
and upper 40s. Secondary arctic intrusion Wed following clipper
passage, leading to highs Wed and Thu mainly in the 40s, and
lows around the freezing mark. Warming trend returns late week
thanks to rising heights in response to upstream ridge moving e.

Precipitation...

strong cold advection Sun could allow for some isolated shra or
even shsn in higher terrain thanks to steepening low lvl lapse
rates. Dry air intrusion through the column will limit the
extent of these shra shsn, so near nil pops are favored. Dry air
associated with 1030hpa high pres mon. Strengthening clipper
passage pushes warm front through with shra possible Mon night,
followed by cold front late Tue night. Overall, this system is
moisture starved until it experiences cyclogenesis off the
coast, and given its N passage, this is typically a mostly dry
scenario for S new england, but a few shra cannot be ruled out
with this passage. Drier air then filters in late week, carrying
us into fri.

Will also need to monitor for strong winds in two cold
advection scenarios. In each case, the associated LLJ is not too
strong, however the pressure rise fall couplets are high
amplitude. Sun and Wed are the two periods to watch closely as
we approach. Wind headlines may be required.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Overnight...

vfr to start but with CIGS gradually lowering. Some MVFR cigs
possible, especially S of the mass pike after 09z and continuing
into through mid morning. Occasional shra after 06z especially,
but as previous forecaster noted, vsbys should remain generally
4sm or higher. Gusty SW winds, 20-30 kt with 30-40 kt especially
on the CAPE islands.

Saturday...

any lower CIGS will improve toVFR during the morning. Gusty
west to southwest winds diminish during the afternoon.

Saturday night...

vfr with gusty northwest winds at 20 to 25 knots.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Wednesday ...

Saturday night through Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night through Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Tonight...

gusty southwest winds. Winds about 2000 feet above the surface
will increase tonight reaching speeds of 30 to 40 kt. Some of
this should reach the surface in gale force gusts after
midnight. Gale warnings continue on the waters through the late
night period. Boston harbor and narragansett bay remain at a
small craft advisory. There is some concern that southwest gales
could inch into the entrance of narragansett bay, but the
chances are low enough to stay with small crafts. Highest seas
should be on the southern waters, where 6 to 9 feet are
possible.

Saturday...

southwest winds continue Saturday, then diminish in the
afternoon. Continue gale warnings through that time.

Saturday night...

west winds become northwest overnight with colder air moving in.

Winds will gust around 25 knots. Seas slowly diminish, but
linger above 5 feet on the outer waters.

Outlook Saturday night through Wednesday ...

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
maz022>024.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until noon edt Saturday for anz231>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Saturday for anz230-236.

Gale warning from 2 am to noon edt Saturday for anz250-251.

Gale warning until 1 pm edt Saturday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb doody
near term... Wtb doody
short term... Wtb
long term... Doody
aviation... Wtb doody
marine... Wtb doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi39 min 59°F 61°F1016.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi72 min SW 24 G 27 59°F 1016.7 hPa43°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi39 min SW 8.9 G 16 58°F 65°F1015.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi67 min SW 25 G 29 60°F 63°F6 ft1017.2 hPa (-1.2)49°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi87 min SW 18 G 23 60°F 65°F3 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi44 min 63°F7 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi39 min SW 15 G 20 1016 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi45 min SW 11 G 12 55°F 60°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi63 minSW 6 G 16 mi58°F46°F65%1017.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi61 minSW 14 G 2210.00 miFair58°F43°F58%1016.2 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi64 minSW 910.00 miFair58°F44°F60%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Montauk
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:15 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.711.41.71.81.71.51.310.70.50.50.81.11.41.71.91.91.61.410.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:50 AM EDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-1.9-10.31.62.22.21.70.6-0.6-1.6-2.4-2.7-2.2-1.4-0.21.122.21.91-0.3-1.5-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.