Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday April 25, 2019 8:54 PM EDT (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:08AMMoonset 10:41AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 620 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming se late. Waves 1 ft or less. Periods of light rain this evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds around 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night..N winds around 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 620 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves across the area waters tonight into Friday morning, follow by a cold front Friday night. Low pressure departs to the north Saturday as weak high pressure briefly builds into the area. Weak low pressure passes across the area waters Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure briefly builds again Monday into Monday night before a series of frontal systems impact the area waters through the late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 252332
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
732 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure provides dry weather this evening. An approaching
warm front brings overnight and Friday. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms are likely into Friday night as a cold front
approaches and moves across the area. Some leftover showers
through mid morning on Saturday, then drier and cooler air
pushes across the region on gusty west winds. Weak low pressure
tracks near or just off the S coast, bringing scattered showers
late Sunday through Sunday night. Another brief dry period
forecast for Monday, then may see unsettled conditions for a
good portion of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
715 pm update...

bands of showers stretch w-e from central oh through S pa to
across long island, trending eastward as seen on latest ne
regional 88d radar imagery, with precip coverage tending to
fill in across the western portion of this area. SE winds in
place across most of the region this evening, which will allow
dewpoints to slowly rise overnight.

Increasing clouds pretty much in line with previous forecast,
though winds have been a bit stronger. Will see low level
moisture increase with the onshore flow.

Previous forecast on track. Have updated to bring conditions
current and incorporated into near term trends.

Previous discussion...

expect warm frontal isentropic ascent, with moisture increasing
from the top-down. As a result, increasing clouds forecast, as
well as cloud deck thickening and lowering as the night wears
on. Precipitable water values increase to around 1 inch. A few
showers with light QPF could reach far western sne before
midnight, then increasing pops from W to E for the overnight.

Likely pops by daybreak across the interior, supported by hi-res
models. Along E of the i-95 corridor, showers may hold off
until closer to daybreak. Overnight lows expected to be mainly
in the 40s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday...

surface low tracks from the eastern great lakes region into far se
ontario, while associated warm front continues to push northward.

Warm front may not fully push north of our area, with occluded
front triple point secondary low potentially headed towards sne. A
broad area of ascent for our region, with deepening of moisture
ahead of and behind the warm front, and precipitable water
increasing to 1-1.5 inch. Low level jet of 40 to 50 kts develops by
late Friday. While the whole day may not be a washout, there will be
showers at times. Will have likely to categorical pops for the day.

There will be a low level inversion north of the warm front, however
mid and upper level lapse rates are moderately steep at times, so
can not rule out some rumbles of thunder. At this time, thinking qpf
of 0.25 to 0.75 inch during the day. Some gusts 25 to 30 mph during
the afternoon, mainly along the CAPE islands. Highs in the 50s to
low 60s.

Friday night...

showers continue as main low tracks northeastward into southern
quebec, while triple point low tracks near or into sne, followed by
cold front sweeping thru our area late. Moisture along ahead of
triple point and cold front is robust, with pwats around 1.5 inch.

Strong winds aloft with h925 winds around 40-60 knots Friday night.

Plan to have categorical pops for this timeframe. Can't rule out
some wind gusts 25-35 mph with embedded thunderstorms.

This system is fairly progressive, hence rainfall amounts during
Friday night should range mainly from 0.50 to 1.0 inch. Elevated
instability and anomalous pwat plume allows for a few higher
rainfall totals.

An additional concern for Friday night will be the combination of
the triple point low, marginal surface based instability with
temps dew points in the mid and upper 50s in the warm sector,
accompanied by strong low level and deep layer shear. This may
support a few rotating storms but will likely remain elevated given
lack of surface based instability. Nevertheless will have to watch
how this evolves with later model runs.

The cold front and triple point low sweep northeastward and away
from our area by daybreak, taking most of the showers as well. There
is a chance for lingering light showers light rain towards daybreak.

Prior to the cold frontal passage, will likely see temps rising a
few degrees as the higher dewpoint air moves in. Then late at night
temps fall to the 40s across much of the far interior, upper
40s to mid 50s to the east.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* dry conditions Saturday into Sunday
* showers arrive late Sunday Sunday night
* unsettled conditions forecast for Monday night through
Thursday
overview...

continued fast moving mid level steering flow across the
northern tier states remains in place into early next week.

Some amplification develops across the western u.S., which
should allow h5 ridging to build early next week across the
east. However, this may put us into an increasingly moist mid
level steering flow by mid to late week with continued fast
moving systems in this flow. Timing of these systems beyond
Monday in question, which lends to lower confidence.

Details...

Saturday through Sunday...

scattered showers linger through midday Saturday as the cold
front moves offshore and the parent low lifts ne. Drier
conditions move in during the afternoon. Good low level mixing
arrives, especially along the S coast where the greater low
level jet will be located. Expect gusts up to 20-30 kt, highest
along the S coast and the higher inland terrain, which should
slowly diminish Saturday night.

Another fast moving weak low pressure center shifts E in the
nearly zonal mid level steering flow Saturday night, which
should push across the region on Sunday. May see some briefly
heavy downpours along the S coast from midday through Sunday
afternoon.

High temps both days should reach the 50s, but may hold in the
mid- upper 40s across the E slopes of the berkshires.

Monday through Thursday...

while a progressive mid level steering flow continues, the
overall pattern begins to become somewhat amplified with a more
sw component by around Tuesday. Still expect fast moving weather
systems to push along in this flow.

Only timeframe for generally dry conditions looks to be Monday
morning through early afternoon before another low starts to
approach with more showers. Timing issues in place amongst the
12z model suite thanks to this fast flow aloft, so lower
confidence on timing of individual systems as they move along.

At this point, some models are signaling that a deformation
zone may set up close to or across the region as these systems
move along. So, could see unsettled conditions for a good
portion of the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe.

Aviation 23z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

high confidence this evening, then moderate confidence late
tonight and Friday.

Tonight...

vfr, except becoming CIGS lowering to MVFR-ifr after 10z across
the ct valley by 12z. Sct -shra move into western areas after
06z, shifting E through the remainder of the night.

Friday...

cigs vsbys lower to low MVFR ifr in shra and patchy fog. Se
winds gusting to 20 kts, except gusts to 25 kts CAPE islands.

Chance for llws late in the day with 40-45 kt winds 2 kft agl.

Low risk tsra.

Friday night...

MVFR ifr conditions persist, with shra and a chance for tsra.

Patchy fog.

Kbos terminal... Sea breeze lasts into early this evening,
replaced by prevailing SE wind at sunset. CIGS lower and thicken
overnight, MVFR ifr Friday with shra.

Kbdl terminal...VFR thru much of tonight, with CIGS thickening
and lowering. MVFR CIGS by 12z Friday with -shra, CIGS lowering
to ifr by 14z with shra.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... High pressure in control this evening. SE winds 5-10
kt this evening will become S and increase overnight as a
warm frontal boundary lifts N towards the waters.

Friday... SCA headlines for most of the waters. Seas building to
5 to 8 feet, with SE winds 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 30
kts.

Friday night... SCA headlines continue, with seas building to 6
to 11 feet. SE S winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts.

There is a low chance for a few gale force gusts.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday night through Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz232>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for anz231-251.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 6 am edt Saturday
for anz236.

Synopsis... Evt nmb
near term... Evt nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Evt
aviation... Evt nmb
marine... Evt nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi54 min 49°F 51°F1014.5 hPa (+0.6)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi59 min S 12 G 13 50°F 1008.8 hPa45°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 7 53°F 51°F1014 hPa (+0.3)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi64 min S 9.7 G 9.7 49°F 49°F2 ft1014.7 hPa (+0.4)45°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi54 min 49°F2 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi54 min S 9.9 G 12 50°F 50°F1014.8 hPa (+0.8)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi60 min S 12 G 14 51°F 55°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi60 minVar 4 mi50°F44°F80%1014.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi58 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds51°F45°F80%1014.1 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi61 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F46°F83%1014.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi58 minS 910.00 miFair50°F44°F80%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6N6N7NW7NW7NW5NW5NW5NW4NW5NW6NW6W33Calm3666S7S6S54
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------------N7
2 days agoN5NE4N5N6NW4W4W6W8NW5N8N6NW4NW4W4NW3NE5CalmNE5S6S565S8SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Montauk
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:45 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.12.32.11.81.51.20.80.50.30.30.611.31.61.71.51.31.110.70.60.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EDT     -3.04 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.22.31.90.9-0.5-1.7-2.5-3-2.8-1.9-0.80.51.72.22.21.60.5-0.7-1.6-2.3-2.5-1.9-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.