Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday August 17, 2017 11:26 AM EDT (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 4:24PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1000 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1000 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the waters moves offshore today. A warm front approaches this evening and moves north of the waters late tonight into early Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure returns on Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171424
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1024 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the northeast and mid atlantic states will
drift offshore today. A warm front will approach this evening
and move north late tonight into Friday morning. A cold front
approaches Friday, moving across the region late Friday night
into early Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday into
Monday before a series of troughs and a cold front pass through
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Quiet weather conditions this morning. Minor updates to
temperatures and dewpoints based on latest observations. The
rest of the forecast is still mainly on track.

An upper ridge axis will remain west of the region most of the
day, moving into the northeast around 00z Friday. Meanwhile
surface high pressure centered over upstate new york will drift
to off the northeast and mid atlantic coasts. The next shortwave
to affect he region will move into the great lakes region. The
upper flow will be somewhat blocky as the ridge builds and
moves slowly east. Will be dry with increasing clouds late in
the day as the ridge axis moves into the region.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
The upper ridge axis passes to the east and builds tonight into
Friday night as the upper pattern remains rather blocky as
heights rise as the ridge moves into the northern atlantic.

This will keep the shortwave from moving east and lifts into
southern canada and weakens as yet another moves into the upper
mid west and then into the great lakes region Friday night. At
the surface low pressure over the upper midwest will rotate
slowly into ontario and western quebec through Friday night.

A weak warm frontal boundary increases today and slow
approaches from the southwest this evening. Precipitation will
be delayed until late tonight as the warm front slowly pushes
into the region as the parent low remains well to the west. Best
chances or precipitation will be across northeastern new jersey
into the lower hudson valley. The region becomes warm sectored
Friday as the warm front lifts through. CAPE and surface based
instability increase during the day as the cold front slowly
approaches. There may be a break in the precipitation of a brief
time once the warm front lifts north, and until the cold front
nears later in the day. Best instability will be inland as a
deep southerly flow keeps a marine layer across long island and
into southern connecticut. Best chances of thunderstorms,
possible strong, will be inland Friday afternoon into the
evening. Then the storms will weaken and move into long island
and southern connecticut Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Cold front moves through the area during Saturday with a chance
of lingering showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Models
then agree that the available moisture is probably too low for
consideration of afternoon showers and storms, especially since
a lagging upper trough and shortwave appear to be too late to
arrive for necessary lift and mid level instability. Will
therefore go with a dry forecast for the afternoon. Then with
stabilizing lower levels, the upper trough should pass through
dry during Saturday night. An even blend of mav nam MOS looked
good for temperatures.

High pressure builds in on Sunday and lasts into Monday as the
upper flow becomes zonal to anticyclonic. Dry weather for both
days with highs mostly in the mid 80s.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, low pressure tracks across
southeastern canada. This will bring a couple of pre-frontal
troughs here before a cold front eventually passes through
sometime most likely on Wednesday. Looks like the best
combination of moisture, lift and shear could be late day
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will cap pops at chance Tuesday
through Wednesday for now given the timing uncertainty of the
surface features and sources of lift aloft. Highs generally in
the 80s both days.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will slide offshore this afternoon before a warm front
approaches from the southwest tonight.

Vfr this afternoon and early tonight before deteriorating conditions
late tonight into Friday.

Light northeasterly winds will veer to the southeast between
17-18z as the high shifts offshore. Klga may remain NE for a
bit longer before turning se.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi38 min 71°F 71°F1018.6 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 69°F1018.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi36 min 70°F 71°F3 ft1018.6 hPa (+0.4)55°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi38 min SSW 8 G 8 69°F 75°F1018.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 8 73°F 74°F1018 hPa
44069 46 mi56 min E 9.7 G 14 72°F 77°F55°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair77°F50°F39%1018.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi32 minNE 4 mi72°F54°F53%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NW7NW9
G15
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NW9NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE6CalmE3E8NE5N6Calm
1 day agoSE64S4SE4SE4CalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4CalmNW3NW5N7N10N9
2 days ago4S6S43SW6S53S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W3N4N3CalmNE3E3SE3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:26 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.40.91.41.92.22.32.21.81.410.60.30.51.11.82.42.83.13.12.72.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.61.11.10.90.4-0.3-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.20.61.41.61.51.10.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.