Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 353 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Rain early this evening. Showers likely late this evening and early morning...then chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning...then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 353 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front passes through the waters tonight with a portion of the front stalling south of the waters...through the mid atlantic region. Weak high pressure builds to the north for Tuesday. Meanwhile...a wave of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary...south of the forecast waters...Tuesday and Tuesday night. A series of low pressure systems impact the area waters through the week...resulting in periods of unsettled weather.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221957
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
357 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front passes through the region tonight with a
portion of the front stalling in the mid atlantic region. Weak
high pressure builds in for Tuesday. Meanwhile, a wave of low
pressure will move along the frontal boundary, south of the
region, Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
on Wednesday, followed by low pressure Thursday into Friday.

High pressure returns for the beginning half of the upcoming
holiday weekend, but low pressure may bring some unsettled
weather during the latter half.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
A weak frontal system was west of the region with a cold front
moving through central upstate new york and through central
pennsylvania. The warm front was rather weak with the cold front
forecast to reach the front, possible occluding. Much of the
lift for the ongoing precipitation was provided by a weak mid
and low level short wave moving to the east of the long wave
upper trough. A 30 to 40 knot low level jet was providing
additional lift with areas of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall
across central new jersey and then across long island. Thunder
not expected as little to no CAPE and instability is present.

The front pushes east and south toward the beginning of the
Tuesday period with a portion the front stalling to the south.

Little clearing expected and will be gradual.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/
The cold frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south,
through the mid atlantic region and DELMARVA Tuesday, and weak
mid and low level ridging builds. Will keep the area dry through
most of the day and then bring in probabilities late in the day
to the south as a wave begins to move along the frontal
boundary.

The wave passes to the south with some differences in placement
Tuesday and Tuesday night with the NAM just about totally dry
while the GFS is a little farther north. At this time leaned a
little more closer to the GFS and brought chance across about
the south half of the area.

The wave does pass through quickly and precipitation may be
ended across the eastern zones by Wednesday morning.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/
Weak high pressure builds in behind a departing offshore low on
Wednesday. Only a slight chance of a shower in the morning mainly
over long island. Partly sunny otherwise, and a blend of mav/nam mos
looked good for high temperatures.

The next system to bring rainfall to the area arrives late Wednesday
night, with rainfall being most likely Thursday into Thursday night.

Went a little cooler than most guidance, particularly over western
zones as a triple point low approaches, but the associated warm
front extending to its east might only push through some of the
eastern zones, if at all. Some elevated instability should be
present, so have included isolated tstms for thurs and thurs night.

Also included areas of fog for late weds night into thurs morning
with the warm front not too far off to the south.

For Friday, the storm exits to the ne, but is still close enough for
a chance of showers, especially over the NE zones. Some lower level
instability combined with a cold pool aloft may also result in a
tstm over parts of ct as well.

Weak high pressure then returns for Saturday. Will go with a dry
forecast and slightly above normal temperatures for now. The timing
of the next low pressure system is still uncertain at this point.

Some overrunning rainfall could move in by daybreak Sunday. The
system would figure to move slowly enough for Monday to be affected
as well. Will go with chc pop for now for both days.

Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/
A weak frontal system will move across the area the next 24
hours. While visibilities will fluctuate... Ceilings will remain
ifr into early this evening and then remain ifr through most of
tonight. Frontal passage is expected between 07-09z and winds
will shift north to northeast shortly thereafter. After the wind
shift, conditions should dry somewhat but there is uncertainty
with how quickly improvement will occur as some the latest
model guidance suggests a slower improvement in the early
morning. By midday...VFR is expected everywhere.

Se winds 5-10 kt gradually increase, generally 8 to 13 kt.

Occasional gusts up 15-18 kt possible. Winds shift north to
northeast 5-10 kt around 07-09z and continue Friday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi62 min ESE 9.7 G 14 56°F 1 ft56°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi44 min 54°F 53°F1017.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi32 min ESE 14 G 17 53°F 1016.8 hPa (-2.5)52°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi44 min ESE 6 G 9.9 54°F 53°F1017.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi42 min 55°F 55°F3 ft1017.3 hPa (-2.1)55°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi44 min ESE 5.1 G 7 54°F 61°F1016.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi44 min E 6 G 11 55°F 1015.8 hPa
44069 46 mi62 min SE 9.7 G 14 58°F 64°F58°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi39 minSE 84.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1016.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi98 minESE 7 mi54°F53°F97%1018.8 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi57 minVar 4 G 103.00 miLight Rain52°F51°F100%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmCalmE3SE5SE5SE7SE9S8SE8SE8
G15
SE9SE7SE8SE8
1 day agoS6SE6S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm43SE5SE7E7SE9SE9SE7S9S9
2 days agoSW7SW8SW4W3N6N8N8N9N9N13
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6SE9SE8SE7SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
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Mon -- 02:07 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:04 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.50.20.40.91.52.12.42.62.421.40.90.50.20.30.81.52.32.83.13.12.72

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.30.51.21.31.10.7-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.40.41.21.61.61.20.5-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.