Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:55PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 1:21 AM EST (06:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:53PMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 951 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
.freezing spray advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 951 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong high pressure will build in through Tuesday, then pass east Tuesday night. A frontal system will impact the waters from Wednesday into Thursday night. High pressure will return on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220544
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1244 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will build in through Tuesday, then pass
east Tuesday night. A frontal system will impact the area
Wednesday into Thursday, with brief high pressure following for
late week. Another frontal system will be possible late in the
weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Gusty NW winds will be slow to diminish tonight as strong high
pressure builds east from the ohio valley and low pressure
tracks across the canadian maritimes. A few gusts up to 45 mph
will still be possible through about midnight near the coast.

Skies have cleared across the area with the departure of the
upper trough.

Temps should bottom out at 0 to 5 below well inland, and in the
single digits to lower teens elsewhere. Could still be a few
areas well inland in the higher elevations where wind chills
could hit -15, otherwise they should be in the -5 to -10 range.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Wind chills should generally be 0 to -10 around day break
Tuesday.

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday with ridging
aloft and mostly sunny skies, then slide east Tue night. As the
upper ridge slides east, there could be a period of
partly mostly cloudy skies via WAA aloft.

Temps will moderate into the 20s for highs on tue, then remain
in the 20s in nyc and drop to the teens inland.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Main system of concern will impact the area Wednesday into
Thursday, as a series of short waves rotate around a long wave
trough expected to develop into much of the eastern u.S.

Strengthening winds between the departing deep layer ridge and
deepening trough will allow rapid warm advection into Wednesday.

Although a wintry mix may be possible at the onset, general
consensus shows temperatures quickly rising above freezing into
the afternoon. There remains significant differences with the
expected track and intensity of the surface low. The canadian
has been fairly consistent in showing a more western track,
which the 12z european has come more into line with. The more
western track would allow a warmer air mass, along with the
potential for gustier winds. Similarly, each consecutive run of
the NAM has trended farther inland, while the GFS has subtly
shifted farther north and west. Given these trends, and the
superior performance of the canadian and european with the last
system, have trended slightly warmer inland with the system.

At the moment, the main impact will be the potential for heavy
rainfall as strong unidirectional flow will be oriented
parallel to the frontal boundary. With strong moisture advection
from the gulf, pw will rise to above 90th percentile values for
time of year. Additionally, the low will be slow to exit the
area. Trends will need to be monitored closely. For now, trended
more towards wpc guidance, with a general 1-2 inches across the
area, closer to deterministic values and the GEFS ensemble
mean.

After the system departs, gusty northwest flow develops. Another
strong vorticity maximum is progged to move through the region
Friday, leading to the potential for brief snow showers in
developing stratocu, though accumulations will be minimal.

Confidence thereafter significantly decreases, with major
differences in model solutions, though with the continued
presence of the upper trough to the west and short waves that
may rotate through, expect an unsettled pattern to continue into
at least early next week.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Canadian high pressure builds over the area today, then slides
offshore into tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Nw winds diminish this morning. Gusts should abate throughout by
around 7-9z as speeds decrease to around 10-15kt. Speeds continue to
slowly decrease to less than 10 kt, at all terminals, as winds
gradually back to the wnw-w by early-mid afternoon. Winds become
light and variable areawide by late afternoon early evening and
remain so through at least 6z Wednesday.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Late tonight-Wednesday morning Vfr. SW winds g25-35kt possible at
eastern terminals and llws possible at western terminals.

Wednesday afternoon MVFR or lower developing in rain, possibly
starting as a wintry mix at northern terminals. Llws possible.

Wednesday night-Thursday night Ifr or lower likely with rain,
precipitation may change to snow before ending. BecomingVFR late
Thursday night. Llws possible Wednesday night. N-nw winds g15-25kt
possible Thursday afternoon night.

Friday-Friday night Most likelyVFR, with MVFR possible in any
snow showers. NW winds g15-20kt possible Friday.

Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Gale warning continues for all waters with wind gusts 35-40 kt
through the overnight and then for the ocean waters east of
moriches inlet through the morning.

Conds ramp down to sub-sca on all waters by late morning. This
lull will be short lived as S flow increases to 20 kt by late
tue night and pushes ocean seas back up to 5 ft.

Winds seas should increase Wed into Thu as the next low pressure
system impacts the waters. Gales will be possible on the ocean
waters, especially late Wednesday into Thursday morning. The
system then departs late Thursday into Thursday night, with at
least SCA gusts possible on all waters. High pressure then only
briefly builds by late week into the first half of the weekend,
with ocean seas slowly subsiding, but likely remaining above 5
ft.

Hydrology
A low pressure system Wednesday into Thursday may bring 1 to 2
inches of rainfall to the area, though timing and placement of
any potential impacts remains uncertain at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
Low water advisory through the next low tide cycle late tonight
for the coastlines of the ocean waters west of moriches inlet
into ny harbor and on the western sound. Water levels will reach
2 to 2.5 ft below mllw. Water levels should remain above low
waters thresholds farther east.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Low water advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz338-345-
353-355.

Freezing spray advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz335-338.

Gale warning until 6 am est early this morning for anz330-335-
338-340-345-353-355.

Freezing spray advisory until noon est today for anz330-340-
350-353-355.

Low water advisory from 4 am to 7 am est this morning for
anz335.

Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for anz350.

Synopsis... Md goodman
near term... Goodman dw
short term... Goodman
long term... Md
aviation... Maloit
marine... Md goodman dw
hydrology... Md goodman
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi81 min WNW 23 G 29 15°F 38°F5 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi51 min 12°F 33°F1024 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi41 min NW 16 G 22 9°F 1025.7 hPa-8°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi51 min NNW 7 G 15 8°F 35°F1024.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi31 min WNW 33 G 39 18°F 43°F8 ft1025.5 hPa (+3.6)11°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi51 min NW 9.9 G 13 10°F 36°F1027.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi51 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 11°F 36°F1027.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi28 minNW 19 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy14°F-2°F47%1027.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi27 minNW 20 G 32 miBreezy12°F0°F58%1025.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi26 minNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair7°F-7°F51%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE9
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2 days agoN4N3CalmCalmN3N3N5N8NE8NE8NE9E7E8
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G21
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
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Tue -- 04:41 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:57 AM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:33 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.50.80.2-0.2-0.30.10.81.72.533.22.92.21.40.6-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.10.81.52.22.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:43 AM EST     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     2.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:20 PM EST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 PM EST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-1.9-1.5-0.801.11.921.71.10.1-1-1.7-2.1-2-1.5-0.80.21.21.61.61.20.4-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.