Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:42PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:44 PM EDT (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:56PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 818 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 818 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast toward the area into Wednesday, then pass over the area Wednesday night, with a trough of low pressure then crossing the area on Thursday. Weak high pressure will briefly build in Thursday night, then give way to another coastal low impacting the area Friday and Friday night. A cold front will move through Saturday and Saturday night, followed by high pressure building over the area Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250028
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
828 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast
toward the area into Wednesday, then pass over the area
Wednesday night, with a trough of low pressure then crossing the
area on Thursday. Weak high pressure will briefly build in
Thursday night, then give way to another coastal low impacting
the area Friday and Friday night. A cold front will move
through Saturday and Saturday night, followed by high pressure
building over the area from Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Ridge axis aloft is passing east, with clouds lowering and
thickening from nyc metro south west. Steady rains are still
well to the southwest over central eastern maryland, and are not
likely to arrive in the nyc metro area until about 11 pm,
though a few spits of light rain are possible here and there
beforehand this evening in the onshore flow between the
approaching low and departing offshore high pressure.

Low temps are a blend of GFS nam MOS and 2m raw temps, with
lower 50s in nyc metro and western long island, and mid upper
40s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Combo of a decent shot of atlantic inflow and elevated
instability ahead of the approaching surface low will lead to
rain, heavy at times, along with chance of thunder as tt
increases to near 50 and showalter indices decrease to near of
below 0c. This area should lift NE and off the eastern new
england coast Wed night, leaving the area in a col for most of
the night with light rain and patchy fog developing. Nwp
guidance shows some phasing of northern southern branches of the
jet stream late Wed night, and as this takes place the southern
stream low and mid level shortwave trough should pass through
late Wed night, along with a cold frontal passage associated with
the northern branch of the jet stream and a surface low well to
our north. Elevated convection could be reinvigorated by this
cold front, and so have kept slight chance mention of thunder in
the forecast for Wed night.

Temps will be below seasonal norms but certainly not unusual for
a springtime rain event, with not much diurnal changes. Highs
wed will be in the 50s, and lows Wed night in the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
During the Thursday through Saturday time frame, features to watch
include departing shortwave over the northeast, southern stream
shortwave traversing across the southeast states ahead of vigorous
northern stream shortwave that moves out of the upper midwest toward
the east coast by Saturday.

Any lingering rain should end early Thu morning with weak
ridging and dry weather returning through Thu night. Meanwhile,
the aforementioned southern stream shortwave will lift
northeast as the downstream trough amplifies, with deep SW flow
setting up. There are some differences aloft, the american
models track the shortwave further west than the ec cmc ukmet,
leading to higher rain amounts on fri. Will need to fine tune
this in the coming days, but for now have increased chc pops a
bit.

During the Saturday night through Monday timeframe, upper
trough pushes east, and there is the potential for additional
showers associated with a weak cold front late Saturday into
Saturday night, although probabilities do not appear to be high
at this time. Greater likelihood would be NW of the area as
trough closes off north of the great lakes region.

Upper trough lingers Sunday but gives way to building ridge as sfc
high builds by Monday.

Temperatures remain right around seasonal norms, with Sunday perhaps
a few degrees cooler behind the cold front. Temperatures warm early
next week.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight into
Wednesday, and then moves overhead Wednesday night.

Conditions lower to MVFR after midnight as light rain becomes
steady. Conditions continue to lower to ifr late tonight with
moderate to heavy rain developing for the morning push.

Isolated tstms possible Wed morning into early afternoon.

Potential for lifr or lower conds in stratus fog for evening
push.

E winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt for coastal
terminals Wed morning. Winds subside in the early afternoon,
becoming light and variable for evening push.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi45 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 48°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi45 min 49°F 46°F1025.3 hPa (-0.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi50 min SE 14 G 16 48°F 43°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi45 min S 2.9 G 7 51°F 46°F1025.2 hPa (-0.9)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi55 min SE 12 G 14 48°F 45°F2 ft1025.2 hPa (-1.1)45°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi45 min SSE 8 G 9.9 54°F 49°F1024.8 hPa (-0.9)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi45 min SE 7 G 8.9 53°F 47°F1023.9 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi52 minSE 910.00 miOvercast53°F39°F61%1025.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi51 minSE 7 mi52°F43°F72%1025.8 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi50 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F39°F55%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S9S10S10
G17
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G19
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1 day agoSW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmNE6E8E11SE11SE10
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E9E9S8SE7S7S6Calm
2 days agoSW64CalmCalmN4N5N4N5N7N6N5NW7NW8N10N9NW9NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.511.522.42.62.62.31.91.40.80.30.10.40.91.41.92.32.52.42.11.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.31.41.30.90.1-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.10.81.21.31.10.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.