Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:58 PM EDT (23:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 658 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 658 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches tonight and passes Friday. A cold front moves across Saturday and behind it another cold front will slowly approach from the north. The second cold front moves in and weakens early next week. This eventually moves farther northeast of the region toward the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 222331
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
731 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
A warm front approaches tonight and passes Friday. A cold front
moves across Saturday and behind it another cold front will slowly
approach from the north. The second cold front moves in and
weakens early next week. This eventually moves farther northeast
of the region toward the middle of next week with a strong high
pressure area building in from the west thereafter.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Minor updates this evening to reflect current temperature and
dew point trends, as well as stronger than forecast winds in the
nyc boroughs. Winds should gradually decrease after dark, with
gusts diminishing. Previous discussion follows.

Warm and increasingly humid conditions will prevail tonight.

Will need to keep an eye on any stratus and fog development,
possibly advecting northward from the ocean later tonight. Long
island and southern ct most likely locales.

Otherwise, weak shortwaves vorts in W SW upper flow, along with
an approaching warm front could trigger a few showers possible
thunderstorms overnight.

With clouds and southerly flow, warm temps overnight expected with
not much disparity across the region. A MOS model blend followed.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the
eastern suffolk ocean beaches into this evening.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
A series of weak upper level shortwaves vorts could trigger a few
showers thunderstorms Friday as a sfc warm front passes in the
morning. Capes build, with highest values where they typically are,
across the interior away from marine layer. As layer precipitable
water values climb to over 2 inches, will mention heavy rainfall
with any thunderstorms. Instability wanes somewhat Friday night, but
thunder remains a possibility and heavy rain is certainly possible
in any convection. In general, expect scattered to numerous
coverage, but it will not rain all the time.

Warm temps in the 80s during the day can be expected, and 60s to 70
at night, along with high humidity. Again, not much disparity in low
temps is expected due to clouds, southerly winds and high humidity
in place.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Overall, looking at the large scale, a trough remains in the
northeast this weekend into next week with a pattern change towards
more ridging evident towards the end of next week. The area will
have the jet stream in the vicinity of the region through early next
week. It will be oriented from SW to NE with a MAX speed of roughly
100-120 kt.

At the surface, a cold front will be approaching the region Saturday
and moving across from NW to SE through the day. A weak low develops
along the front with a sharp mid level shortwave aloft. The front
moves farther offshore SE of long island Saturday night. A weak
pressure pattern sets in place thereafter for Sunday and Sunday
night. A cold front approaches and weakens as it moves in early next
week. Eventually, building high pressure well west of the region
starts to build in mid to late next week.

In terms of weather, a wet start to the weekend with showers and a
few thunderstorms Saturday. Instability is lower Saturday so left
thunderstorm coverage as isolated. Showers are likely. Weather
becomes drier from NW to SE during the afternoon with more westerly
flow getting established. Mainly dry conditions are expected
thereafter. There will be mainly diurnally driven low chances for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday through early next week, but expect
majority of the region to remain dry. Temperatures a little above
normal Saturday but otherwise right near normal values for the rest
of the long term period.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front approaches the region tngt, and lifts nwd thru the
area fri.

MainlyVFR tngt, however there is a chance that some areas of
MVFR or lower develop. Pockets of MVFR are possible again on
fri with CIGS around 2500 ft. For now the tafs indicateVFR
because coverage is too uncertain attm.

There will be a chance of isold-sct shwrs thru the day, with the
potential for strong tstms aft 20z, particularly in areas along
and W of the hudson river.

Sea breeze flow will lessen overnight, and veer to the SW as the
flow weakens. The sea breeze may attempt to back winds closer to
the S again aft 14z fri.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi73 min SSW 9.7 G 14 73°F 1 ft64°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi40 min 69°F 67°F1013.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi43 min WSW 6 G 8 69°F 1012.9 hPa57°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi40 min SSW 6 G 8.9 75°F 62°F1013 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi68 min 68°F 66°F2 ft1013.9 hPa (-1.1)65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi40 min SSW 7 G 8 73°F 74°F1013.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi46 min S 6 G 8.9 76°F 1012.4 hPa
44069 46 mi58 min SSW 3.9 G 7.8 73°F 76°F68°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi65 minSW 610.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1014.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi64 minSSW 5 mi71°F59°F66%1014.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi63 minSSW 510.00 miFair75°F59°F57%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW8W8SW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N5N953S7SE7S7S8SW9S9SW8SW6
1 day agoSW7SW8SW7SW6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW5SW5SW6SW7SW7SW5SW5S6S9SW9SW9
G17
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2 days agoSW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:27 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.810.3-0.1-0.10.41.11.82.32.62.62.21.610.40.10.10.61.42.333.53.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:13 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:35 PM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.2-0.70.21.11.51.410.1-0.8-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.2-0.60.21.21.921.70.9-0.2-1.1-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.