Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:29PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:33 AM EST (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 2:28AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 943 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early this afternoon, then becoming S late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 943 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters today. A frontal boundary will slowly move across late tonight into Tuesday morning, with weak areas of low pressure tracking along it. An arctic front will pass Wednesday night. High pressure builds in from the west on thanksgiving.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181447
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
947 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over new england will shift offshore today, with
a weak warm front approaching tonight. A slow moving cold front
will sag south of the region on Monday, followed by the passage
of a weak offshore low on Tuesday. An arctic airmass will
likely build in for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure tracks over new england, but skies will remain
gray as jet induced cloud cover and pcpn move towards the area
from the ohio valley. The high shifts offshore this afternoon
with the possibility of some light pcpn well N and W of nyc late
this aftn as the entrance region of an upper jet streak with
weak shortwave energy tracks into new england. Soundings
indicate this would fall as snow, with only a coating expected
through 6pm.

Highs are expected to range from mid to upper 30s well inland to
lower to mid 40s near the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
Guidance remains in good agreement with an amplifying pattern
developing across the lower 48 early this week as a piece of
the polar vortex breaks off and drops into hudson bay. This will
result in a developing longwave trough east of the rockies with
a high amplitude ridge to the west.

At the sfc, a weak frontal system will track from the mid
mississippi valley into the mid atlantic states by evening and
continue through southern new england tonight. WAA will ensue
tonight ahead of a warm front with temps slowly rising in the
low levels. Pcpn is expected to gradually expand southward,
although nyc and long island may remain mostly dry until
mon night and tue. With the warming low level temperatures any
snow across locations well inland this evening is expected to
change over to plain rain overnight. Less than an inch of snow
accum is expected before the changeover.

Weak low pres continues towards the canadian maritimes on Monday
with its cold front slowly pushing south of the area. Pops
decrease Mon aftn eve as weak ridging moves through ahead of the
next wave of low pres. There is some uncertainty in the track of
this low which will depend on where the energy in the base of
the upper trough tracks and the interaction between this and
additional southern stream energy ejecting from the SE coast.

This will also determine where the axis of heaviest pcpn will
be. Pcpn overspreads the area late Mon night with all nwp
guidance tracking the low S of long island on tue. Colder temps
across northern zones should gradually change the pcpn back over
to snow into Tue morning. Boundary layer temps are progged to
become marginally warm as the pcpn is lifting out which may lead
to a changeover back to the liquid state before ending. At any
rate, boundary layer temps will be marginal across the interior
where accumulating snow is expected late Mon night into tue,
which will result in a wet snow. As such only anticipate 1-2
inches of accumulation. If the axis of heaviest pcpn shifts a
bit further N or the wetter GFS verifies, could be flirting
with advsy level snow. Areas from the ct coast and south are
expected to remain all rain through the duration of the event.

Temperatures are expected to range between 5 and 10 degrees
below normal through tue.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Fair wx Wed with the CWA between systems. An arctic front
however arrives Wed ngt. The GFS and ECMWF both agree on this
timing. Although the models are dry, some snow shwrs cannot be
ruled out. Pops may need to be included in later forecasts.

Dry wx fcst for thanksgiving thru Sat with a 1040 or so high
building in. Temps well blw average on thanksgiving, then moderating
a bit each day thereafter. Rain possible Sat ngt as a pacific sys
approaches.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure passes offshore this afternoon as a weak warm
front approaches from the southwest through this evening.

Vfr through this afternoon. There is potential for ceilings 2500-
3000 feet late this afternoon into tonight. Light precipitation
moves into the terminals this evening north of nyc. Kswf may start
off as some light snow, but will transition to rain towards
midnight. Just some light rain is expected for the remainder of the
terminals.

Light and variable winds this morning veer around to the s-se
this afternoon at less than 10 kt.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Monday MVFR possible with chance of light rain.

Monday night-Tuesday MVFR or lower conditions possible in
rain or wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday. NW winds gust 15kt
in the afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday MainlyVFR. Low chance MVFR. W winds
g15-20kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday Vfr. NW winds 15g25kt.

Marine
High pressure passing over the waters today will keep conditions
below SCA criteria through tonight.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels through
Wednesday. An arctic front move across the waters Wednesday night
bringing SCA and low chance of gale conditions Wednesday night into
Thursday. Winds and seas then fall below SCA levels on Friday.

Hydrology
Qpf amounts between 1 4" and 1 2" are expected from late this
afternoon into Tuesday. Some of this is expected to fall in
solid form across interior locations. No hydrologic issues are
expected through next Saturday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Update... Pw
aviation... Bc dw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi33 min 40°F 50°F1028.5 hPa (+0.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi33 min N 1.9 G 4.1 42°F 1029.4 hPa (+0.0)20°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi33 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 41°F 50°F1028.3 hPa (-0.3)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi43 min N 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 53°F2 ft1029.1 hPa (+0.0)29°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi33 min N 5.1 G 6 39°F 52°F1028.9 hPa (-0.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi33 min E 1 G 4.1 39°F 51°F1028.3 hPa (-0.5)
44069 46 mi33 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 42°F 43°F28°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi40 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F26°F53%1029.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi39 minVar 3 mi41°F23°F49%1029.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi38 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F17°F42%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW13W14
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W14W7W8W6W6W5W3W5W5W6CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE63Calm
1 day agoNW20NW20
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W8W9W12W12W12W8W9W9W7W6W6SW6W8W8W11W10W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:36 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:49 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:49 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.91.41.82.22.42.52.21.91.51.10.60.50.71.21.622.22.32.11.81.41

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:02 AM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:26 AM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:23 PM EST     1.11 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:44 PM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.311.11.10.80.2-0.5-1-1.3-1.3-1-0.6-00.71.11.10.90.4-0.4-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.