Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 9:58 PM EDT (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 732 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 732 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure builds into the the region tonight. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday and Wednesday night with an area of low pressure passing to our south. Canadian high pressure builds in through Thursday night, then gradually slides to the northeast Friday into Friday night. A frontal system affects the region Saturday into Sunday. High pressure then builds into the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 192355
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
755 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure builds into the the region tonight. A cold
front crosses the area Wednesday and Wednesday night with an
area of low pressure passing to our south. Canadian high
pressure builds in through Thursday night, then gradually slides
to the northeast Friday into Friday night. A frontal system
affects the region Saturday into Sunday. High pressure then
builds into the area early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Clear conditions are in place this evening. Dewpoints were
running a few degrees less than forecast and temperatures have
been running a few warmer than forecast. Temperature and
dewpoint grids this evening have been adjusted accordingly to
better match observed trends. Lows were kept the same as
previously forecast.

High pressure continues to build into the region tonight.

Northwest flow continues, with continued dry weather and minimal
cloud cover. Lows should run around normal, generally from the
middle 50s to middle 60s. Min forecast temperatures will be more
in the upper 60s in and around the nyc metro area.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
High pressure over the region slides east on Wednesday. We are
generally looking at dry conditions on Wednesday, however an
increase in clouds can be expected as a cold front and an area
of low pressure approaches from the west. There is a low chance
for a few showers west of nyc late in the afternoon.

Wednesday temperatures will climb into the middle and upper
70s, with a few lower 80 degree readings in and around the nyc
metro.

Rain will continue to overspread the region Wednesday night, as
low pressure slides south of the region. There are some
differences with the forecast models with respect to the
placement of the low and the amount of precipitation. The 12z
nam was a bit of an outlier with well over an inch of qpf. Sided
more with the 12z gfs ECMWF and wpc guidance, with a general
half to three quarters of an inch across the southern half of
the cwa, with lesser amounts across the lower hudson valley and
southern connecticut. Precipitable waters increase to 1.75 to
around 2" Wednesday night, so there is the potential for locally
heavy rainfall as well. Can not rule out a few rumbles of
thunder as well.

Lows Wednesday night should run a few degrees above normal.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Models in general agreement with the upper air pattern through the
period. Mean upper troughing across the NE on thu, will give way to
brief ridging on Friday. The next feature of note will be an upper
low over the central us on Thu fri, eventually shearing NE towards
the region this weekend as a northern stream trough amplifies south
through ontario quebec. A few pieces of energy will work through the
ne, before the upper trough axis swings through early next week.

This appears to be followed by upper ridging.

In terms of sensible weather, tranquil and seasonable late june
conditions expected Thursday Friday as canadian high pressure builds
to the north. Unsettled weather expected Sunday as low pressure
track well to the nw, with a warm front moving through the region
Saturday, and cold front on Sunday. At this point, appears to be a
high shear low CAPE situation with warm frontal prefrontal trough
passage Sat into Sat night, bringing threat of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Brief very warm and humid interlude on Sunday may
allow for a few thunderstorms along the cold front as well.

Then return to tranquil and seasonable conditions early next week as
canadian high pressure builds from the northwest.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure builds into the region from the north tonight into
Wednesday, moving off the new england coast Wednesday afternoon.

A wave of low pressure approaches from the west late in the
forecast period, toward 00z Thursday.

Vfr.

Winds n-ne under 10 kt tonight, becoming light and variable
outside of the nyc terminals. Light NE to E winds become
southerly Wednesday morning into midday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi44 min NNW 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi41 min 74°F 63°F1010.3 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi124 min N 9.9 G 11 80°F 1009.9 hPa55°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi41 min N 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 67°F1010.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi69 min W 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 63°F3 ft1009.9 hPa (+1.0)64°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi41 min NNE 5.1 G 8 76°F 66°F1011 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi47 min N 5.1 G 7 77°F 62°F1010.3 hPa
44069 46 mi59 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 75°F55°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi66 minNW 410.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1010.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi65 minNNE 3 mi70°F59°F68%1010.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair70°F55°F60%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9SW9SW8SW6SW7W3SW3W4NW9NW11N12N13
G18
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1 day agoS4S5SW6SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9SW10
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2 days agoSW5SW3CalmCalmSW4SW3CalmCalmCalm3N3NE3N3S6S5S6S8S7S6S7S7S6SW6S3

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:36 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:23 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.12.52.82.92.521.40.80.300.20.81.422.42.72.62.31.91.40.80.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:09 PM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.20.4-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.7-1.4-1-0.40.61.31.51.30.8-0-0.8-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.50.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.