Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:51AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1254 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Overnight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1254 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. This front then sags farther to the south on Sunday after the low passes. Another low then moves along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by Monday morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves through the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east Tuesday. High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northville, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.68     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230748
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
348 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary remains to our south today. Low then moves
along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast Monday.

High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through
Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another
wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Friday,
with a cold front moving through Friday. High pressure returns
Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Initial shortwave passes to the east early this morning, with a
wave of low pressure doing the same. High pressure, with weak
ridging aloft, builds across new england.

Subsidence will likely keep the area dry today. Some sunshine
will appear, particularly in southern ct.

Temperatures today will be cooler, closer to seasonal norms of
the lower to mid 80s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Weak ridge yields to approaching trough through this time
frame.

At the sfc, two areas of low pressure approach and pass. The
area looks to remain on the north side of the frontal boundary
as the coastal low passes juts south Monday.

Ample forcing ahead of this system will result in increasing
coverage for showers and possible thunderstorms tonight, from
west to east. Best chance occurs from late evening and through
the overnight hours. At this time, instability appears to be
weak, so widespread thunder is not anticipated.

On Monday, showers are possible, but the main area in the
morning departs in the afternoon.

For tonight, the rain and clouds will result in normal overnight
low temps. However, cool temperatures are anticipated during the
day Monday. With easterly flow, and plenty of clouds, leaned
toward the lower end of the guidance, with a 2 3 and 1 2 blend
followed.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
An upper level shortwave and accompanying wave of surface low
pressure will be exiting to the east Monday night into early
Tuesday. A few showers will be on-going at the beginning of the
extended forecast period. CAPE values look meager.

A weak ridge builds Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another
shortwave amplifies into a significant trough into the eastern
states Wednesday night into Thursday with a high amplitude
trough, of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, digging all
the way to northern florida by Friday. The flow looked to be
still progressive with a surface low moving through Thursday and
Friday. However, there are hints that the upper low will close
off again Friday into Saturday and remain along the northern
coast into next weekend. At this time will keep with persistence
and the more progressive flow and keep Friday night into
Saturday dry as upper ridging builds to the north.

Temperatures through the extended period will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
A frontal boundary will remain just south overnight as a wave
of low pressure tracks along it, then sag farther south today
after the low passes. Another low will then moves along the
front tonight.

Brief ifr vsby in heavier rain at kjfk has tapered off, leaving
MVFR conditions in rain at kisp. Lingering MVFR conditions at
kewr kteb should improve overnight.

Expect bknVFR CIGS through the day on Sunday, with NE flow
turning SE in the afternoon. Played CIGS more on the pessimistic
side, but they could be higher than forecast if drier air works
in from the ne, especially at the ct terminals. If the more
optimistic scenario plays out, winds at coastal terminals could
be more southerly then fcst as a sea breeze also develops.

As the next low approaches, showers with MVFR conditions should
make it to the nyc metro terminals after 02z-03z mon.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late Sunday night-Monday night Showers likely. MVFR conds
likely, ifr CIGS possible. A rumble of thunder also possible
late Sunday night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night Vfr.

Thursday Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with local
MVFR or lower conds.

Marine
Increasing e-se flow tonight and then e-ne flow on Monday ahead of
an approaching low, with a warm front remaining to the south or only
briefly entering the ocean waters, should eventually build ocean
seas to minimal SCA criteria of 5 ft. This could happen in the ny
bight area as early as late tonight, but certainty in this is higher
for daytime Monday. Wind gusts up to 25-30 kt are also possible on
the eastern ocean sound bay waters daytime Monday.

Ocean seas may also approach 5 ft Wed night-thu as increasing S flow
develops ahead of a cold front. Waves of low pressure passing
through could also bring a chance of tstms on thu.

Hydrology
An additional 1 2 to 1 inch of rainfall is likely from late tonight
through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible. There is
a small chance for minor flooding or urban and poor drainage
areas, if any experience locally heavy rainfall.

More rain is possible Thursday through Friday. Significant
hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
With the new moon phase today, tides are running high.

Positive tidal departures of 1 2 to 1 ft are needed for minor
flooding during the night time high tide. With east flow
expected, and looking at what occurred earlier tonight, will
issue a coastal flood advisory for western LI sound, the south
shore bays of li, and lower ny harbor for the evening and
night time high tides. A few locations could reach or slightly
exceed moderate benchmarks across the south shore bays of
nassau and queens.

The threat for minor flooding could continue into Monday, with
e NE flow progged to continue.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Monday for ctz009.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Monday for nyz071-073-176-177.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm to 11 pm edt this evening for
nyz074-075-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Pw
near term... Pw
short term... Pw
long term... Met pw
aviation... Goodman
marine... Pw
hydrology... Pw
tides coastal flooding... Pw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 6 mi51 min E 5.8 G 5.8 75°F 71°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi48 min NNE 11 G 12 74°F 77°F1006.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi48 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 1006 hPa
44069 33 mi66 min ESE 9.7 G 12 72°F 82°F69°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 36 mi36 min NNE 7 G 8 73°F 1006.2 hPa (-1.1)64°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi48 min N 2.9 G 7 72°F 72°F1006.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi46 min 70°F 75°F2 ft1006.5 hPa (-1.3)68°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 48 mi51 min W 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 71°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY15 mi43 minN 09.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%0 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY19 mi40 minN 08.00 miOvercast69°F68°F96%1006.6 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi43 minN 710.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1006.4 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi41 minNNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F83%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------SW3E5CalmCalmSE5SE6SE4S4CalmS4S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalm3NW76NW7N65N8S5SW8SW11
G16
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SW8SW6SW4SW5SW9SW6SW8SW3W3CalmNW3
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalm3S3SE5S7SE7S7S8S8S10SW9SW7SW7SW7SW9W8NW4NW6NW5W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island, New York
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Northville
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:55 AM EDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.55.542.20.7-0.4-0.701.434.65.76.15.54.32.81.30.1-0.30.21.53.14.86.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:53 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-2-1.6-1.1-0.30.81.51.61.30.6-0.4-1.2-1.7-1.9-1.6-1-0.30.81.82.11.91.30.3-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.