Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:30PM Saturday November 17, 2018 1:58 PM EST (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 108 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 108 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through the weekend. Weak low pressure passes through late Sunday through Monday. A slow moving cold front then moves across the waters on Tuesday followed by high pressure.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171825
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
125 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in this weekend. A frontal boundary
will slowly move across late Sunday into Tuesday morning, with
weak areas of low pressure tracking along it. Another high will
then build in through the thanksgiving holiday.

Near term through tonight
Increased cloud cover this afternoon with partly to mostly
clouds skies. With a neutral to a slightly cyclonic flow and
west winds, typically don't see the clouds across the interior
expand eastward toward the coast. However, latest guidance is
showing high rh just below 5000 ft this afternoon. Thus, the
adjustment. Minor tweak to other parameters.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail through tonight. At the
surface, high pressure builds towards the area today, then over
new england tonight.

As the high builds over new england tonight winds will diminish
under mostly clear skies. A dry cold front trough is progged to
move across the area this evening. Mid and high-level clouds
should begin to increase during the overnight hours although
still should have good radiational cooling conditions. Lows are
expected to range from the mid to upper 20s across the interior
and pine barrens of long island to lower to mid 30s closer to
the coast.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
Guidance is in good agreement with an amplifying pattern
developing across the lower 48 early next week as a piece of
the polar vortex breaks off and drops into hudson bay. This will
result in a developing longwave trough east of the rockies with
a high amplitude ridge to the west.

Sfc high pres shifts offshore on Sun as the entrance region of
an upper jet streak with weak shortwave energy tracks from the
ohio valley into new england. WAA will also ensure later Sun and
more so Sun night. This is expected to lead to the expansion of
precipitation north and west of nyc late Sun sun eve with a weak
sfc low passing through Mon morning. A frontal boundary will
then approach from the NW and slowly track across the area mon
into Tue bringing the potential for additional pcpn. Soundings
are initially indicating pcpn to begin as snow well inland sun
night, transitioning to rain by Mon morning with plain rain
throughout the entire event closer to the coast. There is some
uncertainty with the thermal profiles inland Mon night into
tue, the GFS is significantly colder than the nam, so this will
need to be monitored and adjusted as needed. Have leaned more on
the colder side for now.

Temperatures are expected to range between 5 and 10 degrees
below normal into the middle of next week.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
The 500 mb trough axis moves through Tue eve. Have kept the
forecast dry, but it is not out of the question for a snow or
rain shower to occur as it passes.

High pressure then builds for midweek and will continue through
the thanksgiving holiday.

Temperatures through the long term will remain below average
with the coldest day being on Wednesday. Temperatures then
moderate towards the end of the week, but still remaining below
normal.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure will slowly build from the nw. Bkn-ovc045VFR cigs
now look to continue into this evening. Skies should then clear
briefly for a time later tonight before a lowering mid level
cloud deck arrives late tonight into Sunday morning.

Wnw winds mainly 10-13 kt with a few gusts close to 20 kt should
diminish this evening, then veer nw-n overnight and n-ne daytime
Sunday.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday afternoon LoweringVFR cigs. Some light snow possible
at kswf toward evening.

Sunday night-Monday night MVFR or lower conds possible in
rain or wintry mix. NW winds g15-20kt on Monday.

Tuesday MVFR or lower conds possible in rain or wintry mix
early, then becomingVFR.

Wednesday and Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Sca cancelled for ocean zones west of moriches inlet this
afternoon with lingering seas around 5 ft to the east. Seas may
come down there as well by early to mid afternoon.

Winds and seas below advisory levels Saturday night through
Friday as only weak waves are expected to pass through and high
pressure remains in control most of the time.

Hydrology
Light QPF amounts, 1 10" to 1 3" with highest amounts north,
are expected Sun night into tue. No hydrologic issues are
expected through Friday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz350.

Synopsis... 19
near term... 19 dw
short term... 19
long term... CB 19
aviation... Goodman
marine... 19
hydrology... 19
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi47 min 47°F 50°F1019.3 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi44 min W 9.9 G 18 48°F 1020 hPa29°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi41 min WNW 6 G 12 49°F 46°F1018.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi69 min W 16 G 19 47°F 55°F5 ft1020 hPa (-0.8)35°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi41 min NW 8 G 13 47°F 51°F1020 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi47 min WNW 7 G 12 46°F 51°F1019.9 hPa
44069 48 mi59 min WNW 12 G 18 46°F 43°F31°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi3.1 hrsW 8 G 14 mi48°F35°F61%1020.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi66 minWNW 1310.00 miFair49°F28°F46%1020.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi63 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds51°F28°F43%1019 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi64 minNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F28°F46%1019 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:52 AM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:00 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.81.21.622.22.32.21.91.61.30.80.60.81.21.61.92.12.22.11.81.51.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:07 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:25 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:00 PM EST     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8110.80.2-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.10.6110.90.4-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.8-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.