Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:36 PM EST (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 323 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 323 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves east of the forecast waters early this evening. High pressure then builds in tonight and remains over the waters through Saturday morning. Another frontal system will impact the waters Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure then begins to build back into the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212044
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
344 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Friday
night, then moves offshore Saturday. A low pressure system
impacts the region Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure
returns Monday through Tuesday. Another low moves into the
region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A cold frontal boundary will move through the region early this
evening. Gusts will be limited both ahead of the front and in
the cold advection behind the front as winds aloft will remain
rather weather, 20-25kt, and the cold advection will not be too
strong. Also, little moisture was with the front, so few if any
clouds will be associated with the passage.

The sub tropical high will remain off the southeast coast at
least through tonight, and even through Friday night. At the mid
and upper levels near zonal flow will begin to become
northwesterly as ridging builds into the central united states.

Increasing subsidence and dry mid and lower levels will limit
clouds, with only thin high cloudiness possible tonight. Winds
may decouple late overnight and the normally colder areas may
end up several degrees lower than currently forecast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
The sub tropical high will remain anchored off the southeastern
coast through the period with a building ridge moving into the
eastern states and eastern canada through Friday night. By early
Saturday morning the ridge axis is still expected to remain to
the west of the region. Much of the time will be nearly cloud
free as subsidence increases, with only high clouds expected.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Deep layer ridging gradually shifts eastward on Saturday ahead
of an approaching short wave. Deterministic models tend to
struggle with ridges of this strength, often showing too quick
of a break down eastward progression. As expected, the latest
model runs have slowed the progression of the high eastward
ahead of the approaching short wave, which in turn has delayed
the onset of precipitation for Saturday into Saturday night. The
main question initially will be how much cold air is able to
remain across the interior as the surface high moves offshore
and a warm front slowly approaches overnight. There may be at
least a few hours overnight as surface temperatures remain near
freezing for ice pellets and perhaps a light coating of freezing
rain as warm advection strengthens aloft. A non-diurnal trend
will occur though, with surface temperatures steadily rising
through the morning, effectively ending any threat of frozen
precipitation by the morning commute.

By Sunday, the area will be firmly in the warm sector with the
warm front to the north. Temperatures will be well above normal.

Trended slightly higher than guidance across areas to the north
and west of the city where s-sw flow will be predominant.

Otherwise, expect a period of heavy rainfall as deep layer
moisture rapidly increases through the morning, with pwat values
near the upper percentile values for time of year. There is
potential for a rumble of thunder too as colder temperatures
aloft associated with the short wave lead to elevated
instability, which may locally enhance rainfall rates. Refer to
the hydrology section for more information. By afternoon, a dry
slot aloft develops, with rain rates decreasing from west to
east, though light drizzle or rain will still be possible,
especially as the cold front moves through later in the day.

With cyclonic flow remaining and a strong short wave expected to
merge with the departing system, another secondary cold front
is expected to move through Sunday night, with a chance for
showers and snow showers.

Outside of aforementioned rain, there will be a significant
strengthening in winds as the system begins to depart, and cold
advection strengthens Sunday night into Monday night. At the
very least a wind advisory may be needed, though there is
potential for a few hours of winds bordering on high wind -
sustained 40 mph with gusts close to 58 mph, especially across
the east end with the departing low level jet Monday morning.

Thereafter, the northern stream becomes more dominant, with a
series of quick clipper systems possible, though timing and
placement remains uncertain. Temperatures are expected to settle
closer to climatological normals during that time frame.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure then slowly builds in from the west overnight.

Vfr through the period.

West winds decrease to 10 kt or less this evening. Winds turn to the
nw late tonight and Friday and should remain just right of 310
magnetic throughout much of the day.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi49 min 43°F 38°F1012.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi42 min W 12 G 14 42°F 1012.1 hPa37°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi49 min W 6 G 8 49°F 38°F1012.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi47 min W 14 G 16 42°F 40°F7 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.8)38°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 49°F 37°F1013.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi61 min NNW 7 G 12 51°F 36°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi43 minW 5 mi45°F37°F74%1013.3 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi44 minW 14 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds51°F32°F48%1013.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi41 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy44°F37°F79%1012.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi42 minW 7 G 1210.00 miFair48°F32°F54%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3SE45E756E7
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CalmNW6N6NW8W5W8W10
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1 day agoNW12
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NW12N9N9NW9----N7----NE4NE3N4E3E43S3SW7SW4
2 days agoNW8NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
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Thu -- 05:22 AM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:35 AM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.40.6-0.1-0.5-0.40.111.82.52.92.92.51.810.2-0.4-0.6-0.20.51.42.12.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:17 AM EST     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     1.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:04 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:45 PM EST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2-1.9-1.3-0.60.41.41.91.91.40.6-0.5-1.4-2-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.20.91.71.81.61-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.