Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:17PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:49 AM EDT (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1015 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Slight chance of light rain late this evening...then chance of light rain. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning... Then 1 ft or less. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt...increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening...then becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1015 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure system approaches tonight and passes through during Monday into Monday evening. A weak cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night...followed by another on Wednesday. High pressure then builds to the south through Thursday night. Another cold front approaches on Friday then slowly crosses the area Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 290232
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1032 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system approaches tonight and passes through during
Monday into Monday evening. A weak cold front approaches from
the west Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night... Followed
by another on Wednesday. High pressure then builds to the south
through Thursday night. Another cold front approaches on Friday
then slowly crosses the area Friday night.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
A few light rain showers are beginning to reach the ground
across parts of the area, and light rain will continue to
overspread the area tonight. Made minor adjustments to
temperatures, dew points, and winds to better account for
current trends, otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Otherwise... A primary low pressure center slowly shifts
eastward just north of the great lakes. An associated occluded
front drifts towards us, and models are in general agreement
that a secondary weak low pressure center forms along the front
to our south before emerging off the mid-atlantic coast. Trends
have been for a more defined secondary low, but there is still
disagreement on the northern extent of its eventual track and
associated lift. Between shortwave and isentropic lift, and
synoptic lift from an approaching jet streak, thinking is that
the likelihood of rainfall is still there by late tonight for
the city and areas west of the hudson. Patchy fog is expected as
well with this being the 2nd night in a row with a SE flow.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The secondary low center remains to our south Monday morning as it
shifts out of the picture in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the occluded
front begins to move through the forecast area during Monday
afternoon and exits to the east during the evening. Additional lift
will still be present with jet streak dynamics and shortwave energy.

Rain is therefore expected across the entire tri-state area for the
morning at least through the morning. For at least the city and west
of the hudson, much of the afternoon could be still be dry although
breaks of sunshine will probably be limited. The threat of rain
doesn't exit east until around sunset, but any rainfall after mid-
afternoon would probably be east of the city. Clouds and rain will
limit high temps to only around 60. West of the hudson is forecast
to be mostly in the lower 60s, but even upper 60s can happen there
if clouds break up more quickly than currently forecast.

As for thunder, can't rule any out with a few hundred j kg of mucape
forecast, but this would be an isolated occurrence in during the
morning midday hours. Rain amounts are expected to average around a
half of an inch.

A weak high pressure ridge axis will stretch into the region during
the nighttime hours. With low level moisture leftover from the rain
and light to calm winds, expecting stratus and at least patchy fog
during the overnight hours.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Global models remain in good agreement through Fri with an
amplified h5 pattern across north america. Differences then
emerge from Fri night through the weekend with the upper
pattern... Specifically how quickly the upper low over eastern
canada tracks ewd across the maritimes and NRN new england.

Additionally... There are differences with the interaction of
energy aloft associated with the next system that may impact the
area next weekend.

Tue through fri... A closed upper level low over ontario will
slowly track ewd through the week due to a downstream omega
block. A series of shortwaves and sfc fronts troughs will move
across the area during this time... Bringing the chances for
showers and tstms each day except thu. Tue is expected to start
out with fog and stratus with a light onshore flow. Some
question on how thick and widespread the fog will be with the
cloud cover... So have only included patchy fog in the morning
for now. Soundings are indicating stratus or stratocu remains
around for much of the day which makes high temps a challenge.

Think there could be some breaks during the aftn... So leaned
towards the higher temp guidance.

A cold front approaching from the west will move across the area
tue night. There could be a few isold shra tstms in western
areas... Especially late in the day. Chances for showers increase
overnight as a weak wave of low pres develops along the
boundary. Instability wanes with the loss of heating so have
removed tstms after midnight.

The next shortwave weak cold front approaches on Wed and moves
through Wed aftn eve. Less available moisture... Thus low chc
pops with its passage.

High pres builds to the S Thu with no discernible shortwaves
moving around the low aloft. Thus... Thu Thu night should be dry
with mostly clear skies.

As the low finally tracks through the maritimes and NRN new
england on Fri another cold front will move across the area. Sct
aftn convection is a possibility... Although instability appears
weak attm.

Front clears by Sat morning although this is where uncertainty
aloft begins. Models currently agree that an approaching
shortwave will impact the area Sat night into sun... But they
don't agree on the details on timing on precip and strength of
developing low over the ohio valley.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
A frontal system will approach late tonight... And cross the
area on Monday.

Rain will overspread the region over the next few hours, however
expecting MVFR conditions to arrive after midnight. Further
deteriorating conditions to ifr heading into the morning
push... With low prob for sparse tsra as well.

Winds turn easterly and increase for coastal terminals to
around 14 kt with gusts to 20 kt late tonight and continue
through Monday morning as a wave of low pressure tracks to the
south.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night MVFR or lower conds possible in stratus.

Tuesday MVFR or lower to start... Possibly improving toVFR in
the afternoon. Chance of aft eve showers and possibly a tstm.

MVFR or lower possible Tue night.

Wednesday Vfr. Chance of aft eve showers tstms mainly NW of
the nyc metro terminals.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday Vfr. Aft eve showers tstms possible.

Marine
Winds and seas increase during the late night hours of tonight in
response to low pressure emerging off the mid-atlantic coast and
passing to the south of the area waters. Have gone with a SCA on the
ocean from midnight tonight through Monday afternoon. There could be
a gust or two to 25 kt on the other waters late tonight into Monday
night, but not worth expanding the SCA to these areas. Winds and
seas then remain below advisory criteria Monday night as a high
pressure ridge axis stretches in from the northeast.

Sub-advsy conds continue through the remainder of the forecast
period. If winds on Fri end up being a little stronger than
forecast seas could build to 5 ft on the ocean waters.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected with the rainfall late tonight
into Monday. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm during
Monday morning early afternoon, but only a low chance of minor
urbanized flooding would occur with any thunderstorms.

No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are then expected
at this time from Monday night through at least Thursday night.

Tides coastal flooding
While astronomical tides are a little lower for the high tide cycle
tonight, surge will increase a bit due to SE flow.

As a result, a coastal flood advisory continues for the south
shore bays of brooklyn, queens, and nassau, where widespread
minor coastal flooding is expected. Elsewhere, brief localized
minor flooding is possible along the shores of westchester fairfield
western long island sound, SW suffolk, and along the kill van kull
and arthur kill around staten island and adjacent portions of nj.

Additional minor coastal flooding may occur with the high tide cycle
Monday night... Mainly for the southern bays of nassau nyc.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Monday for nyz075-178-
179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc 24
near term... Jc
short term... Jc
long term... 24
aviation... Cb
marine... Jc 24
hydrology... Jc 24
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi49 min E 12 G 14 55°F 1 ft54°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi49 min 55°F 54°F1014.3 hPa (-0.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi34 min E 14 G 16 55°F 1013.4 hPa52°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi49 min E 4.1 G 6 54°F 54°F1014.1 hPa (-1.2)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi59 min 56°F 55°F3 ft1013.5 hPa (-1.1)55°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi49 min ESE 1.9 G 6 56°F 61°F1014.4 hPa (-0.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi49 min E 7 G 9.9 56°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.9)
44069 48 mi49 min ESE 14 G 18 59°F 64°F57°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi1.9 hrsVar 3 mi55°F54°F96%1015.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi56 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F52°F83%1014 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi1.9 hrsE 510.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1014.8 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi74 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F53°F100%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3336454S7S5S6343Calm--S5--4435
1 day agoNW6NW6W7NW7NW4NW5NW5NW6N5N5N6NW7N44435SW4CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE7E9E63N5N7NW9NW10NW9W7W5W7W76W3CalmNE3S3CalmCalmCalmNW6W3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:11 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:13 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.23.32.92.31.60.80.1-0.3-0.20.51.21.92.42.72.62.21.61.10.60.20.20.71.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.4-1.2-1.8-2-1.7-1.2-0.50.41.21.51.40.90-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.5-1-0.40.41.31.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.