Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:09PM Friday March 24, 2017 2:07 AM EDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1241 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through this evening...
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Light rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Sun..E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of light rain.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely...mainly after midnight.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime...then chance of rain at night.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 1241 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the region on Friday. A back door cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Low pressure gradually approaches from the west Sunday, and moves across on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240446
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1246 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the region on
Friday. An unsettled weather pattern then sets up this weekend
and continues into the middle of next week. A back door cold
front moves through Saturday afternoon and night. Low pressure
gradually approaches from the west Sunday, and moves across on
Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
With the surface ridge axis moving across the area late this
evening, winds at the coast have either become SW or light and
variable. This has resulted in significant differences in
temperatures, due to radiational cooling, and dew points in a
matter of hours have risen from zero into the lower 20s at some
locations. As the southerly flow gradually increase late
tonight, the airmass will become more homogeneous with temperatures
leveling off or even rising.

Clear to start, then clouds begin to increase late at night
ahead of an approaching warm front. Models agree that it remains
dry through the night. Clouds arrive too late to make much of
an impact on low temperatures, which will be below normal.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday/
Isentropic lift and low-mid level shortwave energy pass through
along with the surface warm front during Friday morning. The best
combination of moisture and lift will be north and west of the city.

It will then be dry by mid afternoon across the cwa. Have scaled
back on pops somewhat from the previous forecast, but did not have
enough confidence to drop it below likely over the far NW zones.

Regarding pcpn types, expecting a short period of mixed pcpn before
changing to plain rain as temps aloft warm up quickly. For the nw
zones this mix starts out as mostly snow, and near the coast there
could be a brief rain/sleet mix at the onset before changing to all
rain. There is the potential of up to an inch of snow/sleet
accumulation NW of the city before the changeover. There is also the
chance that there's freezing rain in the mix for a couple of hours
for orange and putnam counties and areas right near their borders.

Thinking is that the changeover to plain rain will be too quick for
a widespread freezing rain event, especially without an ideal
cold air damming setup. Will therefore not issue any advisories
at this time. High temperatures will be a little below normal.

Dry during the nighttime with the warm front still to the north.

This plus mostly cloudy conditions will lead to above normal
low temperatures Friday night.

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/
Unsettled weather pattern sets up across the region through the long
term period.

On Saturday, a split flow jet stream with polar jet running across
the new england southern canada border and southern stream cut-off
across the south central united states. Weak ridging attempts to set
up between these two streams. Surface high pressure across the
western atlantic pumps unseasonably warm air into the area under
southwesterly flow. At the same time, a back door front will
gradually sink south from new england. Deterministic models and
ensembles all indicate strong high pressure pushing south out of
southeast canada, forcing the boundary south through the day on
Saturday. The main question is with the timing. The ecmwf, nam, and
nam-3km all bring the boundary south of long island by early
afternoon. The GFS and cmc are a bit slower, bringing the boundary
south by early evening. There is notable spread in the 15z SREF as
well.

The timing of the back door front will have be important with
regards to temperatures. The slower timing will allow temperatures
to warm well into the 50s, and possibly lower 60s.

Faster timing will hold highs down, more in the 40s and 50s.

Spread in the 15z SREF at bdr for high temperatures ranges from 44
to 60 degrees. Have generally sided with a consensus for this
forecast, with the boundary moving south in the afternoon, allowing
temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 50s.

Upper level cutoff low opens Sunday night into Monday as the
remaining shortwave passes near or just to our north. Pops increase
to likely this period with rain. Parent low will likely pass to the
north, with possible secondary development along nearly stationary
front near or just south of long island. High temperatures will
ultimately be determined by where this boundary sets up. Current
forecast shows readings in the 50s near the coast, and upper 40s
inland.

Shortwave passes east Monday night followed by weak ridging aloft.

Progressive flow pattern leads to the continuation of unsettled
conditions with models and ensembles signaling another frontal
system approaching Tuesday, passing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Continued chances for rain and near seasonable temperatures are
forecast. High pressure should follow for next Thursday.

Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure slides offshore tonight. A warm front them lifts
to the north from Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

Vfr through the TAF period. There is the potential for some
light precipitation on Friday morning. At this time confidence
high enough for prevailing at khpn and kswf which should see a
wintry mix, with kswf also seeing MVFR cigs. Any accumulation
at those two terminals should be less than 1 inch. Elsewhere
address with prob30 - with rain possibly mixed with sleet at
the onset.

Winds have turned southerly at kjfk, and should do the same
earlier at klga/kisp as well. Otherwise winds should become
light/variable tonight, the increase out of the s-ssw Friday
morning to around or just over 10 kt. Gusts just over 20 kt
likely Fri afternoon at kisp/kgon and possibly elsewhere.

Outlook for 00z Saturday through Monday
Friday night-Saturday morning Vfr.

Saturday afternoon-Monday MVFR/ifr probable, possibly lifr.

Monday night-Tuesday MVFR or lower possible.

Marine
Tranquil conditions on all waters tonight into Friday morning
with a high pressure ridge passing through. Winds and seas then
increase Friday afternoon with the pressure gradient tightening.

Expecting all but ny harbor to see SCA conds in the afternoon,
with advisory conds continuing into the night for the ocean,
eastern sound and eastern bays.

Lingering seas around 5 ft are possible east of moriches inlet
Saturday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below
sca levels on Saturday. Increasing easterly flow Saturday night into
Sunday brings wind gusts near 25 kt on the ocean, with ocean seas
approaching 5 ft. SCA winds are possible on LI sound, LI bays, and
ny harbor.

The pressure gradient weakens Sunday night into Monday. Sub-sca
conditions are forecast on all waters through Monday night. The
approach of a frontal system may build seas around 5 ft Tuesday
afternoon.

Hydrology
Unsettled weather this weekend into early next week may result in an
inch or more of precipitation. However, this would occur over a
prolonged period, so no hydrologic concerns are anticipated. Snow
melt across interior sections continues at a slow rate with a more
significant snow melt on Saturday as temperatures rise to above
normal readings.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight edt
tonight for anz330-340.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening
for anz335-345.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am edt
Saturday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc
near term... Jc/dw
short term... Jc
long term... Ds
aviation... Goodman
marine... Jc/ds/dw
hydrology... Jc/ds


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi68 min WSW 9.7 G 12 36°F 1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi68 min 35°F 39°F1034.5 hPa (-0.5)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 31°F 15°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi50 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 29°F 40°F1034.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi78 min 38°F 42°F2 ft1034.6 hPa (-1.1)23°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi50 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 30°F 39°F1034.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi50 min NNE 1 G 2.9 29°F 1033.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi74 minN 0 mi31°F19°F61%1034.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair16°F7°F67%1034.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair23°F12°F63%1034.3 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi13 minSSW 310.00 miFair28°F10°F47%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
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W10NW10NW8NW6W4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4W7NW12
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2 days agoW4NW4W4W4W4W4W3W3W5W6W6W6W8SW3W7S7SW4SW5Calm5SW6W6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
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Fri -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:00 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.40.50.91.31.82.22.42.42.21.71.20.60.20.10.40.91.41.92.22.32.21.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:28 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:38 PM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:46 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.30.41.11.31.310.2-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.7-0.10.71.21.210.5-0.3-1-1.4-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.