Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 4:24PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1150 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Sat..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1150 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the waters will shift offshore overnight and Thursday. A warm front will lift northward Thursday night. A cold front slowly approaches from the west on Friday, moving across the waters on Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170220
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1020 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
An area of high pressure will build into the region through
tonight, then slowly shift offshore Thursday. A warm front will
approach Thursday night. A cold front slowly approaches from
the west on Friday, moving across the region on Saturday. High
pressure returns on Sunday into Monday before the next cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Minor updates to reflect current temperature and dew point
trends.

Dry conditions tonight and into tomorrow as high pressure
continues to move eastward then offshore by Thursday.

Temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s along the
coast and mid 50s inland. Patchy fog possible late tonight and
through early Thursday morning.

Swells from the departing hurricane gert will gradually
decrease, with a moderate risk of rip currents continuing at
area beaches tonight.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Mostly sunny conditions expected on Thursday as high pressure
begins to shift offshore Thursday allowing for the return of
a southerly flow. As a low pressure system lifts through the
great lakes, a warm front will lift northward towards the area
late Thursday afternoon. Showers and possible thunderstorms
will start to develop north and along the warm front late
Thursday afternoon then spread across the region Thursday night.

Temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with nighttime temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches
for Thursday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Main concern in the long term period surrounds a frontal system
progged to affect the area Friday into the first portion of
Saturday. The parent low pressure system will be spinning across the
northern great lakes Friday morning, with its warm front draped near
the region. Low level warm advection near the warm front is the main
source for lift with the expectation that showers will grow in
coverage through the morning. The warm front should lift to the
north in the afternoon, but abundant cloud cover should preclude any
significant instability. Will continue to mention chance of thunder,
with showers becoming likely through the morning and afternoon. The
new 12z suite of models and ensembles are in good agreement that the
main cold front will still be off to the west across upstate ny and
pa Friday evening. With the main upper trough still located well to
the west, do not think there will be any severe weather, with the
latest day 3 SPC outlook confining a marginal risk closer to the
cold front. The front will gradually move to the east Friday night
into Saturday morning, but will not completely move offshore until
Saturday night. Showers with possible thunder will continue Friday
night before tapering off Saturday morning out east.

Locally heavy rain is possible anywhere Friday into early Saturday,
but difficult to pinpoint since convection will throw off QPF on
models, especially at this time range. Three quarters to one inch of
rainfall is possible on average Friday through Friday night.

The main moisture feed and lifting mechanism will then be offshore
Saturday afternoon, with just a slight chance for a shower or storm
as the cold front moves through. The upper trough is still expected
to lag behind the front Saturday night, but have elected to remove
pops due to cold advection behind the front and much drier air
moving in.

The upper trough should be offshore Sunday morning, with rising
heights aloft expected through early next week as ridging takes
shape across the southeastern us. This should bring a brief warming
trend, with higher humidity levels and temperatures warmer than
normal for this time of year in the middle and upper 80s. However,
we still lie near the main belt of the westerlies to our north and m
models signal a longwave trough developing over the eastern states
late Tuesday into Wednesday along with the next cold front.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds into the area tonight and slides offshore
on Thu as a warm front approaches from the sw.

Vfr through the TAF period outside any overnight patchy fog.

Dewpoints are forecast to drop overnight, so fog development
is expected to be less widespread compared to last night.

Northerly winds 5kt or less prevail tonight. As the high shifts
offshore on Thu winds will veer to the se-s with seabreeze
enhancement possible in the aftn.

Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday
Thursday night through Saturday night MVFR or lower flight
cat possible in showers tstms.

Sunday and Monday Vfr.

Marine
Long period southerly swells from hurricane gert should slowly
subside tonight into Thursday as the hurricane moves farther
out to sea. Thursday night winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels as a cold front approaches from the west.

Increasing southerly flow on Friday ahead of a cold front will bring
the chance for some gusts close to SCA levels on the ocean waters
west of fire island inlet, with gusts closer to 20 kt elsewhere on
the ocean. Ocean seas could build near 5 ft as well late Friday into
Friday night. The front should cross the waters through the day on
Saturday with subsiding seas and winds remaining below SCA levels.

Sub-sca conditions are forecast Sunday and Monday.

Hydrology
Locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday into early Saturday.

An average of 3 4 to 1 inch of rainfall is forecast. However, it is
difficult to pinpoint where heavier showers storms will develop at
this time. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected, but some
minor urban flooding is possible.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 am edt
Thursday for anz353-355.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am edt
Thursday for anz350.

Synopsis... Fig ds
near term... Md fig
short term... Fig
long term... Ds
aviation... Ird
marine... Fig ds
hydrology... Fig ds


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi51 min 71°F 73°F1016.4 hPa (+0.6)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi51 min N 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 71°F1016 hPa (+0.6)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi61 min 73°F 72°F4 ft1016.5 hPa (+0.7)73°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi51 min NNE 8 G 11 74°F 75°F1016.7 hPa (+0.6)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi51 min NNE 2.9 G 6 73°F 75°F1016.1 hPa (+0.7)
44069 48 mi51 min NNW 1.9 G 7.8 75°F 78°F73°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi57 minN 0 mi70°F66°F87%1016.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F61°F84%1017.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi55 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F61°F78%1016 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4NW3CalmNW3CalmNW4NW6NW8NW6W5W5W5W53S43SW4W3W3W3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3Calm33444S33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE4NE4334CalmNE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.10.30.91.522.32.42.21.81.40.90.50.20.411.72.42.93.13.12.82.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.61.11.10.90.4-0.3-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.20.61.41.61.51.10.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.