Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holiday Pocono, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:41PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 7:04 AM EST (12:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 3:46AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 415 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Chance of rain this morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt with a gust up to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered flurries in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N around 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 415 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks just to the south of long island this morning, then lifts into the gulf of maine this afternoon, followed by high pressure building in from the west tonight. A strong cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday morning, then crosses the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure builds in through Friday, then slides offshore into Saturday. A storm system approaches from the southwest late Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Pocono, PA
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location: 41.07, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201126
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
626 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak surface low will move offshore the new england coast this
afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the mid-atlantic on
Wednesday, followed by a very cold surface high building into the
northeast for thanksgiving and Friday. A couple of surface lows may
affect the region this weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak low pressure moving across the region, and will end up
just south of nyc in the next couple of hours. The low deepens
as it moves into the gulf of maine, and this allows a weak cold
front to pass through the region early this afternoon.

Some light rain showers have developed across parts of the
region, but coverage is scattered, and QPF amounts are light. In
addition, patchy fog across the region continues through this
morning.

Into this afternoon, clouds gradually lift and break up, and
skies should clear out late.

West northwest winds increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 20
mph this afternoon. Highs today will generally be in the 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure south and west of the region will mainly be in
control of the area tonight. Meanwhile, a weak clipper system
ahead of a strong cold front will approach late tonight.

Mainly clear skies and light west winds on tap for the region
tonight. Lows will generally range from the low to mid 20s in far
northern zones to the 20s to around 30 for the rest of the
region.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Quite a few challenges with the long-term forecast, with the main
two stories being a very cold thanksgiving (and Friday) followed by
a couple of systems affecting the region this weekend into early
next week.

The large-scale pattern features a strong trough in eastern north
america on Wednesday with digging vorticity maxima amplifying the
trough as it progresses into the western atlantic by Friday night.

However, it will be replaced by amplified ridging early this weekend
with help from a polar high retrogressing into eastern north america
during this period. This will serve to reinforce longwave troughing
in the central eastern u.S. Canada, with two strong midlevel
perturbations digging into the central southeastern u.S. This
weekend into early next week. Models are struggling mightily with
the evolution of these midlevel perturbations and associated surface
lows, with very poor agreement with both by Saturday. In general,
the forecast for the whole period is based on a consensus model
blend but with less and less weighting of the 12z 00z ECMWF Saturday
and beyond as they become outliers (though worryingly consistent
ones). The ECMWF seems to be weakest with the amplified ridging and
blocking polar flow, which does not seem reasonable given the
evolving pattern early this week and general teleconnections with
the polar-latitude pattern.

On Wednesday, an arctic cold front will blast through the northeast,
progressing through our CWA by evening. Operational models depict
some light QPF along upstream of the front as deep mixing allows for
some (snow) showers to develop. The setup looks at least somewhat
favorable for a snow squall or two Wednesday (late morning into
early evening), given (1) development of shallow buoyancy in the
increasingly deep mixing layer upstream of the front, (2) very
strong 850-750 mb flow with a fetch upstream from the great lakes,
and (3) ready saturation of surface-based parcels. Though this
potential seems much higher to our north and west (as usual), this
will need to be monitored closely as the cold front progresses
through the area.

The main story with the front will be the bone-chilling air it
brings in. It will also be breezy upstream of the front, and this
spells low wind chills. Current forecast has these readings near or
below zero Wednesday night and Thursday in the poconos and adjacent
areas, with single digits and teens virtually everywhere else. Winds
will diminish Thursday night, but temperatures will plunge as a
strong surface ridge approaches, allowing for ideal radiational
cooling. Record lows are a possibility. Lowered temperatures quite a
bit Thursday and Thursday night, as statistical guidance tends to be
too warm in these environments (especially those that are so
anomalous). Somewhat worried I am still on the warm side, especially
Thursday night in more rural areas, so these numbers may be
decreased more in subsequent forecasts.

Friday should be quite cold as well, but it should be warmer as
light return flow is expected to set up as the surface high advances
offshore. As midlevel ridging moves into the region, Friday night
should be much warmer and may feature little if any cooling beyond
the early evening as warm moist advection increase(s).

Attention turns to the developing surface low in the southeast
Friday night. The GFS cmc shift this low (of varying intensity) off
the carolina coast, while the ECMWF lifts the low along the mid-
atlantic coast by 12z Saturday. Large differences in precipitation
timing and magnitude in our area occur as a result, with the ecmwf
showing considerably more precipitation on Saturday. The GFS cmc
produce some cold-conveyor-belt precipitation as the low progresses
well offshore across the i-95 corridor and surrounds but suggest the
heavier precipitation stays well south closer to the low's track.

All of the models suggest the precipitation may hold off until later
in the day Saturday, which is good news given the residual cold air
that will remain Friday night. This also makes sense given residual
effects on the strong surface high -- models tend to be too
aggressive with precipitation encroaching a retreating ridge. Should
precipitation onset be sooner, the pattern reflects a warm nose atop
near-surface near- sub-freezing air (i.E., a wintry mix with some
chance for sleet freezing rain). Cannot rule this scenario out
entirely, so have included chances of this Saturday morning.

However, current model simulations suggest the timing will be too
late, with the precipitation being a mostly above-freezing liquid
event.

There will be a brief lull in precipitation at some point this
weekend... Most likely Sunday... Before the second strong vort max
makes it move toward the area. The ECMWF looks way too fast given
the blocky polar pattern, but if correct, would suggest a quick-
hitting, light QPF event for most of the area on Monday. The GFS cmc
would suggest a stronger second QPF punch on Monday Monday night
(slower owing to the appreciable blocking simulated by these
models). Temperatures look warm on Monday, so most of the
precipitation would be liquid. However, should precipitation linger
Monday night into Tuesday on the cold side of the system, may see a
little bit of a wintry mix in the northwest cwa. Plenty of time to
figure out these details, and too much model disagreement to begin
dissecting the thermodynamic details profiles this far in advance.

Given the above, have broad (mainly chance) pops Saturday through
the end of the period with temperatures near seasonal averages for
highs and above averages for lows. Again, the entire period will not
be wet, but the timing discrepancies among the guidance preclude
pinpointing these time windows at this point.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR ifr conditions this morning in
fog stratus scattered light rain showers. Conditions improve to
vfr later this morning. Lgt vrb winds this morning become w-nw
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Tonight...VFR. West winds 5-7 kt in the evening become 5 kt or less
late.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday: primarilyVFR with a strong cold front
moving through on Wednesday, switching winds from southwest to
northwest. Speeds generally 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25+ kts
after frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday.

Winds should be light and variable Thursday night and Friday.

Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday: periods of sub-vfr possible with a chance
of rain on Saturday. Winds easterly or southeasterly below 10 kts
Friday night becoming 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts near the coast
Saturday. Low confidence.

Marine
Low pressure moves across the waters this morning, and then deepens
as it moves towards the gulf of maine. Tranquil conditions this
morning, and then NW winds increase to 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts
this afternoon and evening. Small craft advisory remains in effect
for lower de bay and the ocean, but went ahead and added upper de
bay to the SCA for the same time. Conditions subside to sub-sca
levels late tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: strong cold front will pass through
the waters, with winds switching to northwest. A period of gales is
possible, especially off the new jersey coast, but confidence is
low. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday: strong northwest winds continue, and gales cannot be ruled
out. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday night: lingering advisory-level winds expected but should
diminish late.

Friday and Friday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Saturday: east southeast winds develop and increase, possibly to
advisory levels. Rain possible.

Climate
Here is a list of current record low temperatures:
site november 22 november 23
allentown 15 2014 16 2000, 1964
atlantic city 16 2014, 1964 10 1989
georgetown 16 1987, 1969 16 1984, 1964
mount pocono 5 1969 6 2000, 1964
philadelphia 14 1980 10 1880
reading 16 1969 16 1972
trenton 15 1880 16 1880
wilmington 17 1964 17 1964

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Wednesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps
climate... Mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 80 mi34 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 42°F1012 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 80 mi88 min NW 1 G 1.9 42°F 42°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA15 mi71 minW 41.75 miFog/Mist34°F34°F100%1011.3 hPa
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA19 mi70 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1012 hPa

Wind History from MPO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW6NW7NW5NW3------------E4CalmCalmE4E54E33CalmCalmCalmW4W7
1 day agoCalmE5SE5SE5SE6SE7SE4SE5SE7SE5SE6E5E3SE4E4CalmSE5S54SW4SW4W3W4W6
2 days agoW12W9W13
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--------W12--W11W11NW8W7NW12NW9NW7NW8NW8NW6NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
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Tue -- 03:40 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:47 AM EST     6.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:08 PM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.72.13.755.865.54.53.2210.30.41.32.84.25.25.75.44.53.11.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:10 AM EST     8.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:41 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:35 PM EST     8.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:37 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.27.764.32.71.60.70.10.93.567.38.28.375.23.72.31.30.30.22.14.96.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.