Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southold, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:41PM Monday August 21, 2017 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:47AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 650 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Today..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 650 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure building into the region through this morning will settle offshore this afternoon. High pressure moves farther offshore tonight into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching. The front will pass through on Wednesday, followed by high pressure later this week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southold, NY
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location: 41.08, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211107
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
707 am edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves across the region this morning and offshore
this afternoon. High pressure moves farther offshore tonight. A
cold front approaches from the west Tuesday into Tuesday night.

This cold front will move across the region on Wednesday. A
much drier and cooler airmass will move into the region for the
end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast mainly on track this morning with just slight
adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to better match
observed trends.

Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft with main upper level jet stream
well northwest of the region.

Surface high pressure moves across the region this morning and
offshore this afternoon. Expecting a mainly dry day with just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for far western
orange county late this afternoon. 850mb temperatures forecast
to reach near 15-16 degrees c. Surface temperatures forecast to
reach several degrees warmer than yesterday. Mid 80s to near 90
degrees f for much of the region with mostly sunny conditions
for most locations.

The sky cover forecast still contains some uncertainty for the
times of the partial solar eclipse, which should run from about
120 pm to 400 pm in nyc and peak at 244 pm. This deals with how
much cirrus moves in as forecast models show some convection in
pa developing as well as the sea breeze convergence and
resulting CU field and how expansive that gets.

Like previous forecast, a look at the hrrrx conveys a slight
decrease during maximum obscuration of Sun during eclipse, so
adjusted temperature a degree downward at 19z (3pm local time).

There is a low risk of rip currents today, becoming moderate
late today at atlantic beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Rest of the forecast shows high pressure moving farther offshore
and a cold front gradually approaching from the west. Upper
levels convey an upper level trough with its upper level low based
in ontario approaching the region. Continually more warm and
humid conditions are expected. Forecast has warmer temperatures
Tuesday, getting hot and humid for quite a few locations. Could
see heat indices up to 100 degrees in and around nyc.

Precip forecast remains near or below 30 percent for showers and
thunderstorms. Not much forcing but increasing instability and
possible lee trough forming Tuesday could provide focus for
convergence. Models are pretty minimal with forecast rainfall
amounts overall tonight through Tuesday. Weak trough evident in
lower levels late tonight into early Tuesday will lead to pops
more in low end chance for showers and thunderstorms and then
expecting much of Tuesday to be dry except for interior
locations which will have relatively higher chances for showers
and thunderstorms. These locations will be closer to lee trough
as well.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A cold front approaches the region Tuesday night and pushes across
the forecast area on Wednesday. Expect cloud cover to increase and
showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the region
through this time frame. By Wednesday evening, skies will begin to
clear and a much cooler airmass will be arriving.

Canadian high pressure builds into the region Thursday through the
weekend, providing dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will
remain below normal as highs only reach the 70s to near 80 each day.

The dry and cooler conditions are expected to continue into
Monday.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Vfr through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control.

Isolated shra tsra possible late evening for nyc nj and nw
terminals.

Sw winds will increase this morning into the afternoon, with
southerly sea breeze development at coastal terminals. Gusts of
15 to 20 kt likely this afternoon. SW winds diminish to less
than 10 kt this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi49 min 69°F 72°F1022.4 hPa (+1.1)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi49 min N 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 69°F1022 hPa (+1.0)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi49 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 76°F1022.4 hPa (+0.8)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 34 mi59 min 72°F 72°F2 ft1022.5 hPa (+0.9)68°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi49 min N 2.9 G 2.9 67°F 74°F1021.7 hPa (+0.9)
44069 43 mi49 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 78°F68°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F90%1023 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair68°F60°F78%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW12NW9W10NW12
G16
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NW11W8W10W6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW6NW8N6CalmS7SW8S10SW11SW10
G18
SW10SW7SW7SW6SW8SW6SW9SW3CalmCalmNW3W6NW5NW3NW4
2 days agoS8S9S7S6S13
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S6S9S8SW8SW4SW7SW3SW3SW6W5W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Horton Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:52 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:11 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:32 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.13.11.90.8-0.1-0.400.923.144.44.23.42.41.20.2-0.2-0.10.71.8344.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:18 AM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-1.8-1.5-0.90.11.11.61.61.20.4-0.6-1.3-1.8-1.8-1.5-0.9-0.11.11.81.91.71-0.1-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.