Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southold, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:27PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 6:59 AM EST (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:15AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 320 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect this evening...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 320 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front will lift through on Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southold, NY
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location: 41.08, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211142
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
642 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west today and passes through
early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front moves
north Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday night. High
pressure builds to the west Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Sunny and "mild" - at least relatively so.

Some thin cirrus - but "basically" sunny. Temps top out at or
near 60 most areas with a breezy ssw flow. Last 60 degree day of
the year?? Probably not.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Rather impressive shortwave over the gulf of mexico with
convection firing in the right rear quadrant of 100 kt jet
streak. This convection lifts rapidly across fl to off the
carolina coast this evening. Jet then strengthens to 120 kt
ahead of the sharpening of the northern stream shortwave.

Nwp, including the gefs, SREF and hrefv2 (replaced spc's sseo)
ensembles all support rain moving into nyc long island and s.

Ct before sunrise. Have raise pops significantly from previous
forecast due the observed dynamics and the consensus of the
latest nwp.

Does not look like a very nice morning rush. Rain may come down
hard for around 7-8 am.

Rain will move east of the region by noon though as colder air
rushes in Wednesday afternoon with gusty NW winds and clearing
skies.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Long range models are in good agreement through fri, with
noticeable differences starting Sat as a shortwave approaching
from the northern rockies interacts with a canadian vortex near
hudson bay. This is leading to timing and amplitude differences
with the 00z ec now developing a cutoff low over new england sun
night. GFS remains open.

As such, no big changes to the previous forecast through the
end of the week, but have cut back on the extent of pops
associated with the warm FROPA on Sat as models have trended
slower and drier. Southern stream shortwave and developing sfc
low passes well S and E of the area Sat sat night as a cold
front moves through the local area. Not much moisture for the
front to work with have kept the forecast dry Sat night.

Since the upper pattern is a bit uncertain next weekend, this
offshore low will need to be watched. If the full latitude
trough amplifies more, the low would shift to the west and could
result in potential impacts.

A secondary cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air
could bring a few showers to the area on Sun with gusty winds
developing in its wake. Vigorous shortwave in the GFS which ec
is weaker. Schc to low chc pops with this feature. Soundings
mostly support rain at this time, although could get some wet
snowflakes Sun morning N and W of nyc.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be below normal through
the period, except on Sat in the warm sector. Overnight lows
also below normal except Fri Sat nights where they'll be near
normal.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure slides further of the mid-atlantic coast today. A cold
front approaches from the west tonight.

Vfr through at least midnight. MVFR then develops at ct long
island city terminals from E to w. Low chance at ifr ct long
island terminals and very low chance city terminals. Should
stayVFR at kswf through the TAF period.

Sw winds increase to around 10-15g20-25kt by mid-late morning.

Winds diminish late this afternoon early this evening. With
gusts abating during the evening. Winds become light and
variable outside of kjfk klga overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 12 mi119 min SW 18 G 21 49°F 3 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi29 min SW 22 G 25 49°F 1019.1 hPa37°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi41 min 49°F 50°F1020.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi41 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 47°F 56°F1020.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi41 min W 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 50°F1020.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi47 min W 1 G 5.1 41°F 51°F1019.7 hPa
44069 43 mi104 min WSW 9.7 G 14 47°F 46°F38°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW14
G20
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G25
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N4
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SW9
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G18
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G27
SW12
G20
SW11
G19
SW13
G20
SW14
G23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi66 minSW 410.00 miFair44°F32°F63%1021 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi64 minSW 410.00 miFair39°F28°F65%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9W18
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W7W8W12W10W10W7SW6W9SW8SW4SW8SW6SW7SW4
1 day agoSW14
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G27
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G34
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G32
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NW23
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W11W10W14W6W8W8W12
G21
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W14NW15
G23
2 days agoCalmCalmE3SW7SW7SW10
G18
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SW17
G29

Tide / Current Tables for Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Horton Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:05 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:23 PM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.73.12.21.40.70.40.61.32.23.13.84.24.23.52.61.60.80.20.20.61.42.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:44 AM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:38 AM EST     1.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:15 PM EST     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EST     1.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.6-00.81.41.51.20.8-0-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.600.81.110.80.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.